Today (December 29), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. A-Shares rose and fell at the opening, and then the three major stock indexes fell unanimously. The Shanghai index fell below 3600 points, and the gem index and Shenzhen composite index fell more violently. There was no sign of counterattack in the session, showing a pulse downward pattern all day.
In this regard, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that at present, the medium-term fluctuation of the index remains unchanged, but the capital operation at the end of the year is cautious, the market sentiment tends to avoid risks, the plate rotation is more frequent, and the operation is difficult. You can choose an appropriate amount of participation in some subject stocks, and you still need to focus on the mining of listed companies whose annual reports exceed expectations in the medium-term.
At the same time, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) mentioned the five directions of long-term focus on scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
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I. military industry
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that at present, China is in a critical period of national defense modernization. The technology maturity of advanced fighters and missiles has been high. Military enterprises have greatly expanded their production to support the accelerated assembly of advanced equipment. From the perspective of capacity construction, at present, most of the capacity expansion plans in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the aviation manufacturing industry chain can fully reach the production capacity in the middle and later stage of the 14th five year plan. In the next two to three years, the industry will be in the stage of continuous investment of new capacity and accelerated release of performance. Some weapon and equipment models are accelerated, and more weapon and equipment models can be expected in the future. The industry fundamentals are expected to continue to improve. The configuration value of the military industry is prominent, and it is recommended to over configure the military industry.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that in the short term, the sector has the demand for the release of valuation risk, but the adjustment space is limited. At present, the valuation quantile of the military sector is about 60%, and the upper limit of valuation improvement is far from coming; In the medium term, with the continuous release of industrial capacity and downstream demand, the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise; In the long run, the "Centennial goal of building the army" is nearly late, and the "Centennial change" is bound to accelerate the modernization process of our army, and the development of the industry can be expected. The "policy chain, value chain and industrial chain" drive together to build a strong engine for high-quality development of the military industry. It is recommended to optimize the track, select individual stocks from bottom to top, and recommend Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co.Ltd(300447) , Guangdong Shenglu Telecommunication Tech.Co.Ltd(002446) and Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) .
Looking forward to 2022, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) judgment: 1) the production capacity of the military industry continues to expand. With the gradual release of new production capacity of many enterprises in the industry and the superposition of scale effect under the resonance of supply and demand, the sector is expected to enter a new development stage of accelerated release of profits and its performance is expected to continue to improve; 2) The high outlook of the industry is gradually reflected from the upstream to the middle and downstream along the industrial chain, and the downstream enterprises have entered a period of accelerated performance growth. 3) From the perspective of valuation, after 2022, compared with upstream enterprises, downstream enterprises have greater flexibility to digest valuation with high profit growth.
II. Medical devices
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) said that the global pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity migrated to China, and China's cdmo field grew rapidly. Covid-19 virus continues to mutate under the global epidemic, and the epidemic prevention and control in China is good, ensuring the continuous supply of manufacturing capacity. CXO, especially cdmo, has stronger stability in supply, undertaking delivery and quality. We believe that the signing of large orders by leading enterprises (such as small molecule covid-19 oral medicine) will occupy the production capacity, overflow some conventional orders to other cdmo enterprises, boost the industry performance in the short term and improve the industry status in the long term.
In the post epidemic era, there is a strong demand for medical infrastructure, and medical equipment infrastructure is the first force. Global basic public health construction is generally insufficient, and medical infrastructure planning in the post epidemic era has been put on the agenda. Since 2020, the issuance of medical related bonds in some provinces of China has accelerated the layout of China's medical infrastructure. In addition, overseas countries represented by Spain, France and Italy have also launched corresponding new medical infrastructure schemes, which is expected to stimulate the demand of the medical device industry.
AVIC securities mentioned that based on the judgment of short-term fluctuation and repeated uncertainty of covid-19 epidemic situation, it can continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of covid-19 prevention and control industry chain in the short term, including covid-19 oral drugs, vaccines and antibodies, as well as the listed companies deeply involved in covid-19 prevention and control drug supply chain. At the same time, with the confirmation of the end of economic policy and the arrival of a new round of stable growth cycle, the trend of market consolidation and recovery has been established, and the market focus may focus on the sectors with marginal improvement and valuation repair logic. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the undervalued value with consumption attribute, and the growth and valuation of traditional Chinese medicine will dynamically match to a reasonable range in a period of time, At the time point when the valuation switching is gradually approaching, the advance layout needs to pay particular attention to the marginal improvement and the sustainability of growth.
In the long run, the pharmaceutical industry is currently at a historical low valuation. With the continuous promotion of the procurement of drugs and consumables, enterprises with relatively high safety margin, strong innovation ability, rich product pipelines and good competition pattern are expected to continue to benefit in the long cycle. It is suggested to continue to surround the innovative drug industry chain, high-end medical devices, medical services and medical consumption, At the same time, tap the second-line blue chips with relatively low valuation: 1) innovative drugs and innovative drug industry chain, including comprehensive and specialized innovative drug enterprises and CXO industry. It is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) and Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) ; 2) It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) and Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) as the leader of high-end medical devices with outstanding import substitution ability; 3) It is suggested to pay attention to Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) and Inkon Life Technology Co.Ltd(300143) for the medical service industry immunized by drug and equipment price reduction; 4) Consumer and undervalued traditional Chinese medicine enterprises, including growth consumer, vaccine and traditional Chinese medicine, are recommended to pay attention to Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) and Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) .
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