In the last week of 2021, the shortage of energy metals has once again become the focus of market discussion.
The previous weekend, the news of the third round of lithium salt price increase in 2021 quietly fermented, and some lithium enterprises received an offer of 300000 yuan / ton. In addition, driven by downstream demand, lithium salt supply is insufficient, upstream enterprises basically do not execute long orders, and the spot “one mine is difficult to find”.
lithium resource supply will no longer be “stuck”
Starting this week, the prices of some lithium battery materials continued to rise for three consecutive days, and the prices of lithium salt materials such as metal lithium, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased across the board. In addition to upstream energy metals, according to the summary of business society this week, lithium iron phosphate, a lithium electrochemical product, also rose sharply in 2021. The price of lithium iron phosphate was 37000 yuan / ton in January and 101000 yuan / ton as of December 28, with an overall increase of 172.97% in the whole year.
In the middle of the year, the lithium salt market strengthened, and the organization has conducted research: Based on the problem of capacity cycle construction, the incremental supply of global lithium resources in the second half of this year is very small. As expected by the agency, in the second half of the year, the price rise rate of lithium resources took a rocket, and the auction prices of lithium mines from the other side of the ocean also reached new highs.
With regard to the sharp rise in lithium prices at the end of the year, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that it is the re amplification of the supply contradiction in the early stage. By the way, he looked forward to the prospect of 2022, saying that the global lithium resource supply increment in the new year is expected to reach about 180000 tons, which can meet the growth of downstream demand, and lithium will not become a hard constraint on the development of electric vehicle industry.
It also suggests that the current lithium price is at a high level, and the market’s cognition of price rise is gradually passivated, or it will have a reverse effect on the stock market. However, the enthusiasm of the capital market has not been extinguished. This week, the upstream market of lithium battery was hot again, and the two leading lithium salt stocks Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) rose for three consecutive days. The rise of lithium concept stocks in the oversold plate salt lake was particularly fierce, Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) and cangge mining hit a new high on Wednesday, and small cap stocks Sinomach General Machinery Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600444) took the third consecutive board this week.
The market is hot, but Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) also raised the “fire extinguisher”, saying that compared with the rush of short-term lithium price, we should pay more attention to performance fulfillment and price sustainability at the current time point. This view is similar to the plate layout of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) . with the industrial demand improving in 2022, the organization is optimistic about the prosperity sustainability of the upstream lithium resource link in the industrial chain. In the new year, the catalyst and rising power of the plate will change from “price rise” to “performance”.
At present, the annual report forecast of most lithium battery stocks has not been released, and only the third quarterly report can be used for reference. Among the leaders holding lithium resources in lithium mines and salt lakes, Jiangsu Jiuwu Hi-Tech Co.Ltd(300631) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) and Infund Holding Co.Ltd(002141) have the highest month on month growth in net profit in the third quarter of 2021, while Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) with high-profile resumption in August has “rolled” Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , ranking first among concept stocks.
2022, refocus the battle for lithium resources
After the “high light moment” in the middle of the year, the market of A-share energy metal plate began to enter the consolidation period, but the battle between production expansion and supply guarantee of lithium salt suppliers is becoming more and more intense. In October, Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) spent 5 billion to “fiercely” rob mines with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ; In November, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) wholly acquired Arcadia lithium mine; In December, Rio Tinto, a century old overseas mining store, won the Rincon Salt Lake project in Argentina. The “lithium resource anxiety” of the industrial chain has never stopped.
Ge Jun of Minmetals securities commented that in the era of clean energy revolution, the global competition for “future white oil” – lithium resources is becoming white hot, and it is urgent to ensure supply security, which in turn confirms the strategic value of lithium resources already in hand in the world and China’s local lithium resources.
The performance of local lithium resource leaders in the second half of the year was relatively stable. Take Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) as an example, even if the market’s concerns about the rapid rise of lithium price and insufficient supply led to significant adjustment of the sector, the stock price has always been significantly supported in the fluctuation.
After carrying the power and production restriction of enterprises and high-level position adjustment of fund managers under the background of dual control, enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources are still favored by institutions at the end of 2021. In the next two years, the new capacity of lithium resources in the upper reaches is now clear, and the upgrading of the cost of lithium smelting in the middle reaches has also begun to effectively transmit to the downstream (LG plans to raise the price of cylindrical batteries in January 2022, 10%, Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Byd Company Limited(002594) consumption batteries, etc.). The waves wash away the sand, and those with “lithium” will still travel all over the world.
(Financial Associated Press)
