There are only two trading days left at the end of the year. The annual turnover of A-Shares has exceeded an all-time high of more than 255 trillion yuan. How far is the new bull market?
Industry insiders believe that the cross-year market will continue. More optimistic, they believe that A-Shares are expected to open a new round of bull market, and the future single day turnover is expected to exceed the level of 2.37 trillion yuan on May 28, 2015. When this day comes, it will be the confirmation of a new round of comprehensive bull market.
As of the closing on December 29, the transaction amount of A-Shares in 2021 was about 255 trillion yuan. It exceeded 253.3 trillion yuan in 2015. Since the second half of this year, the turnover has increased significantly, and the turnover has exceeded trillion yuan in nearly 150 trading days this year. However, the Shanghai stock index has not exceeded the high of 3731.69 on February 18 after the Spring Festival, and the single day transaction is far from reaching the state of more than two trillion yuan in May and June 2015.
“This is the bull market signal”, referring to the record high annual turnover, Hu Yu, partner and research director of Shenzhen Chengnuo asset management company, analyzed to the first financial reporter that the record high turnover is related to the continuous expansion of market value on the one hand, which is the result of the continuous expansion of issuance scale in the capital market; On the other hand, the annual turnover has reached a record high, indicating that the volume has exceeded the price, while the index has not exceeded 4000 points, mainly because the undervalued sectors such as financial real estate are still at a low point. It is expected that the financial real estate will rise together next year, so that the index bull market can be expected. A new round of bull market peak may appear in 2022, and the single day transaction is expected to break through a new high.
Some seller analysts believe that the current macro environment is similar to that in 2014.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) strategic analyst Liu Gang said that in contrast to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming acceleration of reduction and even interest rate hike, China’s policy further shifted to easing under the goal of stable growth, which is more similar to the situation in which the Federal Reserve ended quantitative easing and China continuously cut interest rates and reserve requirements in October 2014. Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) analyst Du Haomin said that in 2021, the growth rate of national commercial housing sales once fell year-on-year for five consecutive months, and the decline rate of more than 20% in a single month also occurred in 2008 and 2014. Since then, a strong rescue policy has been issued.
At the end of 2008 and the second half of 2014, A-Shares and the real estate market rebounded sharply, and both opened a new round of comprehensive bull market. The transaction volume of A-Shares peaked on July 29, 2009 and May 28, 2015 respectively. Among them, the confirmation of the start of the bull market in 2015 came from the announcement of interest rate cut by the central bank on November 21, 2014. On Monday, November 24, the one-day transaction between the two markets approached 580 billion yuan, comprehensively exceeding the level of 435 billion yuan on July 29, 2009 and 411.3 billion yuan on May 30, 2007.
The bull market was confirmed to open in 2014, just seven years after 6124:00 on October 16, 2007. At the end of November, the transaction broke through a record high, which marked the full opening of a new bull market, and a round of blue chip stock rise was set off by securities companies. Since February, small and medium-sized stocks took over the overall rise. The highest single day transaction record of A-Shares was as high as 2367.3 billion yuan on May 28, 2015 at the end of this bull market,
When can this record be refreshed? On June 12, 2015, the Shanghai stock index hit a new high of 5178 points, and now it has been six and a half years since the then high.
After the central bank announced the RRR reduction on December 6, 2021, the real estate industry chain once led A-share rebound. People in the industry believe that it will continue to dominate the cross year market, and market people continue to express optimism.
Fan Jituo, a strategic analyst at Cinda securities, said that the current judgment is still optimistic and suggested that investors should actively participate in the cross-year market. There are two reasons behind the repair of economic expectations: first, the reduction of the reserve requirement in December and the central economic work conference have made investors optimistic about the policy tone of 2022, and this impact is expected to continue until the beginning of next year; Secondly, if the economic indicators exceed the expectations, the macroeconomic indicators have changed from the state of continuously low expectations in the second and third quarters to slightly exceeding the expectations.
Xu Fei, an analyst at Wanlian securities, said that the focus on “stable growth” has increased, monetary policy has become more active and promising, stabilize the macro-economic market and support high-quality economic development. The market is expected that the central bank will continue to reduce the reserve requirement, and the possibility of interest rate reduction is not ruled out. Investors’ expectations of further easing of monetary policy are heating up, which is good for the liquidity of A-share market and may boost trading sentiment at the same time.
Boshi Fund said that the restless market in spring will be a relatively certain time window for the profit-making effect in 2022. Due to the early spring festival in 2022, the restless market of A-Shares in spring of 2022 is expected to open in advance, showing a calendar effect.
(First Finance)
