Under the background of double carbon, the future development potential of hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry chain is great. The upstream hydrogen energy industry meets the needs of energy transformation. The scale of the downstream new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly. Both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are blue ocean markets with good prospects, which is expected to jointly drive the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry. The industrial chain of hydrogen energy and fuel cell is long and the output value is large. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, the output value of China’s hydrogen energy industry will reach 1 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2025 and 5 trillion yuan from 2026 to 2035. Since 2021, policies related to hydrogen energy and fuel cells have been continuously strengthened at the national level to promote the promotion and application of hydrogen energy and fuel cells.
The upstream of the hydrogen energy industry chain is mainly hydrogen production, energy storage, hydrogen transportation and hydrogenation. Hydrogen energy supply system, aiming at realizing a green, economic, efficient and convenient hydrogen energy supply system, China will gradually break through all links of hydrogen production, storage, transportation and processing. ① Hydrogen production: hydrogen production from fossil energy is the mainstream at present, and hydrogen production from electrolytic water has the most potential; ② Hydrogen storage: high pressure gas hydrogen storage is the mainstream, and advanced hydrogen storage technology needs to be broken through; ③ Hydrogen transportation: it is closely related to hydrogen storage methods. Different methods such as gaseous storage and transportation, liquid hydrogen storage and transportation, hydrogen carrier storage and transportation and solid storage and transportation are suitable for different application scenarios; ④ Hydrogenation: hydrogenation stations are important infrastructure. By 2025, the construction target of China’s hydrogenation stations will be at least 1000, and the CAGR will reach 53% from 2020 to 2025.
The middle reaches of the hydrogen energy industry chain are mainly hydrogen fuel cells and systems. With the acceleration of localization process and scale effect, the cost of fuel cell is expected to continue to decline. Hydrogen fuel cell has the advantages of high power generation efficiency and less environmental pollution. Fuel cell system and hydrogen storage system account for 65% of the whole vehicle cost, which is much higher than that of lithium-ion pure electric vehicles. In recent years, with the rise of excellent domestic fuel cell industry chain enterprises, the localization level of core materials and key components has continued to improve, and the price of fuel cells has decreased rapidly. According to the analysis of GGII in early 2021, the price of fuel cell system and stack in China has been reduced by 30% – 50% in 2020, and the price of fuel cell stack and system is expected to be reduced by about 30% in 2021.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle will become a breakthrough in the development of downstream application market. The hydrogen energy vehicle industry started relatively late. At this stage, the industry has completed the initial introduction and is expected to accelerate into the accelerated development stage. The application of hydrogen energy in transportation in China follows the characteristics that hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles develop first and hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles develop later. Referring to the development plan of energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0, the growth space of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle ownership will reach 100 times in ten years from 2020 to 2030. At present, the cost of fuel cell is high, and its popularization and application depends on policies and subsidies. However, according to the calculation of chebai think tank, the cost of fuel cell vehicles will decline with the progress of technology and the maturity of the industry. From 2030 to 2050, its life cycle cost will gradually exceed that of pure electric vehicles in the field of logistics vehicles, buses, heavy trucks and passenger vehicles.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the hydrogen energy industry in the upstream of the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry chain meets the needs of China’s energy transformation. The scale of the downstream new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly, and both the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are blue ocean markets with good prospects. Under the background of double carbon, the future development potential of hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry chain is great. According to the calculation of the development plan, the growth space of the ownership of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to reach 100 times in ten years from 2020 to 2035. (1) It is suggested to pay attention to: the layout of hydrogen fuel cell system and key parts, and the parts enterprises with leading technology advantages [jiehydrogen Technology (to be listed on the science and Innovation Board), Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Weifu High-Technology Group Co.Ltd(000581) , Pan Asian Microvent Tech (Jiangsu) Corporation(688386) ]; (2) It is suggested to pay attention to: layout the R & D and application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, vehicle enterprises mastering core technology [ Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ], etc.
Risk tips: the technical development of hydrogen energy industry is less than expected, the relevant policies of hydrogen energy industry are less than expected, the technical route has the risk of upgrading, and the construction of supporting infrastructure is less than expected
