The “law” of “buy early, enjoy early, buy late with discount” is no longer applicable to new energy vehicles.
On March 7, the price of important raw materials for new energy vehicles hit another record high. The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate reaches 502500 yuan / ton; LME nickel rose by more than 70% in a single day, once exceeding US $55000 / ton; LME aluminum broke $4020 / ton, setting a new record.
Under the influence of multiple factors such as the decline of subsidies, the shortage of chips and the rise of raw material prices, new energy vehicles have ushered in a “price rise tide”, and some models have even been unavailable.
According to incomplete statistics of Hongxing capital Bureau, since the end of last year, at least 16 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price adjustment, covering the mainstream car purchase range from less than 100000 yuan to more than 300000 yuan. Among them, the increase of models below 100000 yuan is relatively high, with an average price increase of about 4800 yuan
Industry insiders pointed out that at present, the cost of raw materials will continue to rise, and the cost pressure has been transmitted to the terminal. It is expected that more car companies will announce price increases in the future. However, the development of Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles has entered a benign development stage. People in the industry generally believe that the price rise in the short term will not have a great impact on the overall market trend, and the new energy vehicle market will continue to maintain rapid growthP align = “center” new energy vehicle price increases in turn p align = “center” 100000 models with an average increase of 4800 yuan
“You must hesitate to buy Tesla (tsla. US), and if you hesitate, you will reduce the price”. This is the suggestion given by car friends to Ms. Wang. However, after waiting for half a year, she found that Tesla‘s price had increased.
At the end of 2021, Tesla announced a price increase of 10000 yuan for model 3 rear wheel drive version and 21000 yuan for model y rear wheel drive version.
This seems to have fired the starting gun for the rise in the price of new energy vehicles. Subsequently, NiO. Us, Xiaopeng (09868. HK / xpev. US), Nezha, GAC AIAN, SAIC Feifan, Byd Company Limited(002594) ( Byd Company Limited(002594) . SZ), Great Wall Euler, SAIC GM Wuling, Volkswagen, Zero run, extremely krypton, geometry, Ford, Weima, SAIC Roewe and other brands announced price increases one after another.
According to incomplete statistics of Red Star capital Bureau, since the end of last year, at least 16 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price adjustment, covering the mainstream car purchase range from less than 100000 yuan to more than 300000 yuan. Among them, the increase of models below 100000 yuan is relatively high, with an average price increase of about 4800 yuan.
The explanations given by various auto companies are nothing more than the rise of raw material costs, the shortage of chips and the decline of subsidies. For the low-cost cars with meager profits and taking the route of price for volume, this round of cost rise bears greater pressure.
According to Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the ride Federation, the rise in the price of chips, batteries and other parts will increase the manufacturing cost of micro electric vehicles by more than 100 yuan per degree (power battery capacity). Previously, some organizations reported that the profit of national shenche Wuling Hongguang miniev was only 89 yuan.
The situation of “selling thanks to much” appeared in low-cost cars. Dong Yudong, CEO of Great Wall Euler, pointed out: “take black cat as an example. After the sharp rise of raw materials in 2022, black cat lost more than 10000 yuan per unit.” The production cost of three electricity system of Euler black and white cats accounts for about 55% – 60% of the whole vehicle cost. These two popular mini cars have stopped receiving orders.
Raise the price if you don’t surrender. The price of Euler’s good cat increased by 12000 yuan. Wuling Hongguang miniev has not increased its price, but its “brother” nano EV has increased its price by 3000 yuan. The T03, a mini car owned by Zero run automobile, delivered 400000 units last year, which can be said to be the pillar model of Zero run, and also announced a price increase of 9100 yuan.
The significant decline in the trading price of new energy points is another important reason why low-cost cars “can’t afford to sell”.
On April 1, 2018, China began to implement the measures for the parallel management of average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points of passenger vehicle enterprises (hereinafter referred to as “double points”). The positive integral of CAFC (enterprise average fuel consumption integral) is carried forward or transferred to affiliated enterprises, and the positive integral of nev (new energy vehicle integral) can be freely traded to offset the negative integral of nev and CAFC.
New energy vehicle credits have become an important source of income for auto enterprises. In 2021, the trading price of new energy points will reach more than 2000 yuan, and the single vehicle can make a profit of about 6 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 0 yuan for relevant production enterprises. Micro electric vehicles with a single vehicle profit of only 100 yuan are popular with car enterprises.
However, with the substantial growth of the new energy vehicle market, the trading price of carbon credits has been reduced to 500800 yuan in early 2022. According to the market scale of 5 million new energy vehicles in 2022, Euler predicts that the price of carbon credits may be reduced to 200 yuan in the futureP align = “center” raw material prices remain high p align = “center” lithium carbonate exceeds 500000 yuan / ton
The cost of battery system accounts for nearly 40% of the cost of new energy vehicle. The price of power battery rises, and the price of vehicle rises naturally.
In 2021, the global new energy vehicle market grew explosively, and the sales volume of electric vehicles increased by 112% year-on-year to more than 6.3 million vehicles. However, the supply of power batteries can not keep up with the rapid growth of demand. According to the prediction of SNE research, by 2023, the global demand for power batteries of electric vehicles will reach 406gwh, while the supply of power batteries is expected to be 335gwh, with a gap of about 18%.
The gap between supply and demand highlights the supply problem of upstream raw materials, followed by a sharp rise in raw material prices.
In the past year, the price of metal raw materials in the upper reaches of power batteries has increased significantly. Among them, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate, the main raw material of new energy vehicle power battery, has increased 10 times in more than a year.
Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) data show that on March 7, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate reached 502500 yuan / ton. The average spot price of lithium hydroxide reached 459500 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this year, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate was only 300000 yuan / ton, compared with 50000 yuan / ton at the beginning of last year.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) research report said that the rapid rise in the price of lithium carbonate was mainly driven by the urgent demand for lithium carbonate from lithium iron phosphate manufacturers, especially overseas energy storage batteries. However, the supply of lithium resources cannot be increased rapidly in a short time, and the contradiction between supply and demand may exist for a long time.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) research shows that in terms of main materials, the prices of electrolyte and cathode have increased most significantly. From the beginning of 2021 to February 27, 2022, lithium iron phosphate increased by 332%, and the price of electrolyte increased by 189% driven by lithium hexafluorophosphate; Driven by metal prices, ternary cathode materials generally rose by more than 100% during the year.
The rising cost of materials has also put pressure on power battery suppliers. Previously, the Internet revealed that the price increase of Byd Company Limited(002594) battery was no less than 20%, and Byd Company Limited(002594) did not comment on this. Power battery suppliers, including Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) ( Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) . SH), Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) ( Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) . SZ), made it clear that due to the continuous price rise of upstream materials, they have been negotiating with vehicle enterprises about the price rise.
Recently, there are market rumors that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . SZ) and some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have lowered their production scheduling plans in March Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) denied the rumors of production reduction, but industry insiders admitted to the Red Star capital bureau that the current price pressure is indeed huge. According to market news, battery and material manufacturers represented by leading enterprises have been seeking collective boycott and do not buy lithium carbonate with more than 500000 yuan / ton.
In addition to lithium carbonate, neon, palladium, nickel and aluminum, important raw materials in the automobile industry chain, fluctuated greatly due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On March 7, LME nickel rose by 73.93%, reaching a record high of US $55000 / ton; LME aluminum rose above US $4020 / ton, setting a new record.
According to the analysis, the geographical conflict leads to the obstruction of resource circulation, which leads to market concerns and the expectation of global supply gap. If Russia Ukraine relations continue to deteriorate, the global supply of these resources will be affected, which will increase the cost pressure of terminals such as electric vehicle industryP align = “center” short term price increase has little impact p align = “center” new energy vehicles maintain high growth momentum
Despite the impact of rising prices, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China continued the high-speed growth momentum in 2021 at the beginning of 2022. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in January were 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively.
On March 5, Xiao Yaqing, Minister of industry and information technology, said in an interview with the media at the national two sessions that the sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars were very good in January and mid February this year, both of which more than doubled. It is expected that the expected target will be achieved this year and may significantly exceed the expected target.
Industry insiders generally believe that at present, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile is crossing the turning point of marketization and turning from policy driven to demand driven. Even if some auto companies raise prices, the impact on sales is expected to be very limited. Insiders of auto companies told the Red Star capital bureau that the price rise does have an impact on sales, which still needs to be observed for some time. According to the order and delivery cycle, the impact of the price increase may be truly reflected in March and April.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) analysis said that at present, the demand caused by the price increase of new energy vehicles has been fully responded by the market, and it is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will not be affected.
According to the data of the Federation of passenger cars, in January, the new energy passenger car market was diversified. There were 11 enterprises whose wholesale sales exceeded 10000 vehicles, an increase of 6 over the same period. With the decline of new energy subsidies and the rise of raw material prices, the price fine-tuning of some models in the early stage has led to a short downturn in orders, and the price acceptance of new energy vehicles has recovered after the Spring Festival. In addition, many new energy vehicles still have a backlog of undelivered orders in the early stage, so the sales volume of new energy vehicles in February will not be significantly affected by the decline.
It is worth mentioning that this year is the last year of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. However, the Ministry of industry and information technology released the signal of extending the preferential policy of purchase tax for new energy vehicles. On February 28, Xiao Yaqing, Minister of industry and information technology, said at the press conference of the state information office that policies such as subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, awards and subsidies for charging facilities, vehicle and vessel tax reduction and exemption will continue to be implemented. At the same time, new energy vehicles, green smart appliances and green building materials will be carried out in the countryside.
Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that we should pay close attention to studying and clarifying the support policies such as the extension of preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles, optimize the “double points” management method, effectively connect with the decline of subsidies, and stabilize market expectations.
In addition, in view of the disorderly rise in lithium prices in the current period, relevant departments will start rectification. Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said on February 28 that this year, we will focus on meeting the production needs of power batteries, moderately accelerate the development progress of China’s lithium, nickel and other resources, and crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and raising prices.
