Silicon carbide has outstanding performance advantages and the market scale is growing rapidly
The service limit performance of silicon carbide substrate is better than that of silicon substrate, which can meet the application requirements under the conditions of high temperature, high voltage, high frequency and high power. At present, silicon carbide substrate has been applied to RF devices and power devices. With the explosion of downstream demand, the market scale of SiC devices will increase from US $4.3 billion to US $8.9 billion from 2022 to 2026, with a compound growth rate of 20%, The corresponding SiC substrate market scale increased from US $700 million to US $1.7 billion, with a compound growth rate of 25%.
Demand: the application of downstream industrial chain breaks out and the demand dividend of SiC market is released. We divide the development of SiC devices into three development stages: 20192021 as the initial stage, 20222023 as the inflection point and 20242026 as the outbreak period. With the expansion of SiC in the application fields of new energy vehicles, charging infrastructure, 5g base stations, industry and energy, the demand for SiC ushers in explosive growth. Among them, energy vehicles are the fastest-growing market for SiC device application. It is estimated that the market scale from 2022 to 2026 will range from US $1.6 billion to US $4.6 billion, with a compound growth rate of 30%.
Supply: the short-term industrial chain restricts the substrate capacity, and the long-term capacity expansion leads to a decline in price. The silicon carbide Market industrial chain is mainly divided into four parts: wafer substrate manufacturing, epitaxial wafer production, silicon carbide device R & D and equipment packaging and testing, accounting for 50%, 25%, 20% and 5% of the total market cost respectively. Due to the characteristics of cumbersome crystal growth process and difficult wafer cutting, The manufacturing cost of silicon carbide substrate has been high. At present, the application of high-quality substrates is mainly concentrated in the three suppliers of wolfspeed, II-VI and Rohm. The market share of Cr3 has reached more than 80%. There is still a certain gap in product yield, quality and production efficiency of substrate manufacturers represented by Chinese manufacturers. In the short term, the upstream of medium and high-power device industry chain is mainly controlled by substrate CR3. In addition, with the gradual improvement of Cr3, the proportion of self-use of materials has increased, With the increase of production capacity, the market supply is limited and the overall supply is tight. According to wolfspeed data, it is estimated that the production capacity in 2022 and 2024 will reach 167k square feet to 242 square feet respectively, converting 850000 pieces and 1.23 million pieces corresponding to 6 inches. Through calculation, it is estimated that the global market sales of 6 inches in 2022 and 2024 will be about 1.7 million pieces to 2.5 million pieces respectively.
The breakthrough of domestic silicon carbide is accelerating and ushering in medium and long-term investment opportunities
IDM is the main operation mode in the overseas silicon carbide market, and the Chinese substrate manufacturers are Tianyue advanced (mainly insulating substrates), Tianke Heda (mainly conductive substrates), China Electronics Technology (ShuoKe), Roshow Technoiogy Co.Ltd(002617) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ; Epitaxial wafer: hantiantiancheng, Dongguan Tianyu, CETC, etc. have completed the R & D and production of 3-6-inch silicon carbide epitaxial; In terms of devices: Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) body, Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) launched SiC MOSFET Power Devices and modules; In terms of wafer foundry, x-fab is the largest foundry and provides services to 80-90% of silicon carbide manufacturers without Wafer Factory; Hanlei and Jita significantly increased capital expenditure to expand SiC capacity; IDM: Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) has the integrated production capacity of the whole industry (substrate / epitaxy / device / sealing test).
Risk tip: the yield of silicon carbide and devices is lower than expected; Downstream demand is lower than expected;
