On March 5, the fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress opened at the Great Hall of the people in Beijing.
in this year's government work report, there are many policy information related to the automobile industry, including continuing to support the consumption of new energy vehicles; Orderly promote carbon peak and carbon neutralization, and build a green manufacturing and service system; Enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and strengthen the supply guarantee of raw materials and key parts; Launch measures to optimize vehicle detection for convenience
The exposure of these policy information, to a certain extent, upload and convey the new trend of the development of China's automobile industry, and further clarify the path for the development of the industry.
At the same time, a number of deputies to the National People's Congress and members of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference also put forward relevant suggestions and measures around the protection of lithium resources, the recovery of retired batteries, promoting the rise of domestic chips, promoting the consumption of new energy vehicles, and strengthening the construction of charging infrastructure.
lithium price anxiety calls for multi-channel guarantee
The soaring price of lithium has become the largest grey rhinoceros in the new energy vehicle industry, raising concerns about supply security in the industry. Many deputies to the National People's Congress and members of the Chinese people's political consultative conference stressed the importance of protecting lithium resources in the bills and proposals of this year's two sessions. The value of China's lithium ore will usher in a strategic revaluation, and battery recycling as a way to obtain resources has also attracted more attention.
As the main raw material of power battery, the price of lithium carbonate reached a new level on the eve of the two sessions this year. According to xinlune lithium data, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China exceeded 500000 yuan / ton on March 2, up about 67% from the beginning of the year. It took one month to increase from 300000 yuan / ton in January to 400000 yuan / ton, and only about 20 days to increase from 400000 yuan / ton to 500000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of 2021, the price of lithium carbonate was only 50000 yuan / ton.
The most direct impact of the price rise of lithium battery materials is that the power battery industry is subject to stress testing. Many industry insiders have reported to the reporter of securities times · e company that due to the rapid rise of prices and the hope of battery manufacturers to ensure market share, many companies choose to bear high prices in 2021, the gross profit margin is squeezed, and the manufacturers in the third and fourth echelons will face reshuffle and exit, "in the end, they are working for the mine owner".
A more far-reaching impact is that the price rise may curb the popularity of new energy vehicles. At the beginning of this year, the cost of the industrial chain finally penetrated into the consumer terminal, and the prices of new energy models of many brands increased. There is an industry view that a number of institutions have given a sales forecast of 5.5 million vehicles this year, but it may be difficult to achieve due to resources. In terms of specific market structure, xinlune lithium battery analysts believe that the A00 model focusing on cost performance will be the first to be dealt a fatal blow. Due to the high cost of three batteries, it may eventually lead to shutdown.
Recently, some new energy vehicle enterprises have announced that their A00 models have been suspended from receiving orders. The situation of "losing one by selling one" is forcing these car enterprises to seek transformation.
In this context, "supply chain security" has become a high-frequency word for proposals and proposals related to lithium batteries. Chen Hong, deputy to the National People's Congress, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) party secretary and chairman of the board of directors, suggested strengthening the layout of the industrial chain and the R & D and innovation of low-carbon technologies, and effectively integrating and controlling upstream resources such as lithium and cobalt to ensure the safety of the industrial chain.
Yin Tongyue, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Chery Automobile, suggested that the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other departments formulate policies to include new energy power battery materials into the national strategic reserve resource management, set up special funds, support and encourage Chinese enterprises to acquire foreign battery material resources, and ensure the safety of the new energy automobile supply chain.
The core reason for the price rise of lithium resources lies in the mismatch between supply and demand. The global lithium mine has limited production capacity after the trough of the last cycle, while the new energy vehicle market broke out beyond expectations, and the average production expansion cycle of 3-5 years can not meet the downstream demand. Pilbara, a lithium miner in Western Australia, launched an electronic trading platform to auction lithium mines in July 2021, directly breaking the original rules of the game of cost pricing and turning lithium mines into a seller's market.
The world is rich in lithium resources, but 80% of them are distributed overseas. According to Minmetals Securities Research Report, the best quality salt lake lithium is distributed in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, known as the lithium triangle of South America, and Western Australia is the main source of solid lithium supply. In 2021, China's dependence on foreign lithium raw materials is about 70%. China's lithium resource reserves rank sixth in the world, but the grade is low and the resources are scattered.
In this regard, many representatives and members called for accelerating the development of local lithium resources. Zeng Yuqun, member of the CPPCC National Committee and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) chairman of the board of directors, proposed that the current supply and demand situation of lithium resources is grim and the industry development faces challenges. China should speed up the exploration and development of lithium resources to ensure the safety of the supply chain. At the same time, we should strengthen independent innovation and scientific and technological research, and improve the level of resource recycling and efficient utilization.
Jiang Weiping, deputy to the National People's Congress and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) chairman of the board, suggested speeding up the green development of lithium resources in Western Sichuan. Specifically, strengthen the infrastructure construction of the mining area, ensure the production and living factors such as roads and hydropower, improve the attraction and participation of mining area development, introduce enterprises with higher mining capacity and processing capacity, and promote the development and utilization of mineral resources with high quality.
Chen Hong suggested that for China's salt lake lithium resources, it is necessary for the state to systematically find out the "family background" and ensure the resources of strategic emerging energy industries.
It is reported that Qinghai, Tibet, Western Sichuan and Yichun are rich in lithium resources in China. Sun Jingwen, assistant director of Minmetals Securities Research Institute, predicts that China's total output of lithium resources will increase from 170000 tons of LCE to 350000 tons of LCE from 2022 to 2025 Among them, the positioning of Qinghai's development into a world-class Salt Lake producing area has been very clear, and the production capacity of Chaerhan Salt Lake will enter a rapid rise channel; Tibet is subject to environmental restrictions. It is more a sample project, which can only play the role of supply supplement; The development of Yichun, Jiangxi and other environmental protection resources.
It is worth mentioning that retired battery recycling can also become an important source of resource supply. However, at present, there are some problems in battery recycling in China, such as poor formal channels, poor economic benefits, imperfect policy standards and so on. The representatives and members who paid attention to this field emphasized to clarify the main responsibilities of all links, especially producers, and build a complete recycling closed loop.
Dong Mingzhu, deputy to the National People's Congress and Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) chairman and President, suggested that the lithium battery recycling market should be standardized to avoid large-scale inflow of low-quality waste lithium batteries into the market. Clarify the subject of law enforcement, improve the comprehensive law enforcement mechanism, and ensure the safety of the whole process of power battery from delivery, use to recycling.
Hu Chengzhong, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Delixi's board of directors, also suggested to promote the refinement and implementation of supporting policies and standards for the extended responsibility of producers in the field of new energy vehicle power batteries, pay special attention to bringing power battery manufacturers, new energy vehicle manufacturers, 4S stores and battery recycling manufacturers into the same value chain for consideration, and clarify the role of the above participants in battery R & D and design The main responsibilities of vehicle technology and battery installation, after-sales service and consumer education, recycling upstream and downstream, etc. form a closed loop of the whole life cycle value chain of power battery.
promote the rapid rise of domestic chip industry
The contradiction between supply and demand of chips is an important problem perplexing the current automotive industry.
Since 2021, due to various factors, there has been a serious shortage of chip supply in the automotive industry, which has not only affected the production and sales of relevant vehicles, but also impacted the upward breakthrough of China's intelligent vehicle industry to a certain extent.
In February this year, there was a collective correction in the sales volume of many new car manufacturing enterprises. Shen Yanan, co-founder and President of ideal automobile, disclosed to the reporter of securities times · e company that the supply shortage of some parts such as chips has affected the company's production. At present, the company is actively ensuring supply through a variety of measures.
In fact, at the two sessions of the National People's Congress last year, a number of deputies to the National People's Congress and members of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference in the automotive industry made suggestions and suggestions on resolving the contradiction between supply and demand of automotive chips. At this year's two sessions, they will focus on how to promote the rise of domestic chips.
Relevant data show that at present, China's auto chip self-sufficiency rate is less than 10%, the localization rate is only 5%, and the supply is highly dependent on foreign countries. At the same time, China's automotive chip industry is also facing problems such as lagging development of industrial chain, weak R & D technology, lack of key manufacturing production lines, limited sealing and testing capacity, lack of talents and so on.
Zhang Xinghai, deputy to the National People's Congress and Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) founder, believes that realizing the self-reliance and self-control of domestic automobile chips is the key to the development of China's automobile industry from high quantity growth to high core quality, which will directly determine the international competitiveness and status of China's automobile industry in the post epidemic era.
However, due to the long R & D cycle, high design threshold and large capital investment of vehicle specification chips, Chinese chip enterprises are not willing to develop vehicle specification chips at present.
"At present, the single chip price of vehicle specification chips is only about US $1 ~ 3, the price is low, and the market scale is very limited, which is a very small market," revealed Wang Fengying, deputy to the National People's Congress and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) president. Due to the meager profit of vehicle specification chips, OEM is more willing to give priority to the production capacity of high profit consumer electronics chips, The production of vehicle specification chips is mostly monopolized by foreign enterprises, and it is difficult for Chinese chip enterprises to cut in.
In view of the existing difficulties and problems of domestic chip enterprises, the industry generally believes that they should be overcome one by one in stages.
In the short term, Zeng Qinghong, deputy to the National People's Congress and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) chairman of the board, suggested that the market should be coordinated and stabilized as soon as possible to ensure chip supply.
In the medium term, Wang Fengying suggested that the state formulate a 5-10-year development plan for the vehicle specification chip industry, which should be led by the state, and guide China's vehicle specification chip industry technology to keep up with the development trend of cutting-edge technology and accelerate its development. At the same time, we should pay attention to the guidance of the application of Chinese enterprise vehicle specification chip products in downstream application industries, so as to truly realize the market feedback and promote the technical iteration.
Obviously, to build the top-level design of domestic automobile chips, we cannot do without the support and guidance of the policy level. Zhang Xinghai suggested that the competent department of automobile chips should be set up at the level of national ministries and commissions to formulate top-level design and supporting measures for the development of automobile chip industry, coordinate resources and overall manage the R & D, manufacturing and application of domestic automobile chips, so as to ensure the efficient development of domestic automobile chips and realize domestic substitution as soon as possible.
In addition, Zhang Xinghai also suggested that the government introduce R & D subsidies, tax relief, financial discount and other policies to speed up the realization of "chip boarding".
In terms of technology and R & D, Chen Hong believes that there is a huge gap in the high-speed transformation of the automotive industry to intelligence, networking and electrification. He suggested that while studying the domestic on-board high computing power chip, we should also strengthen the cooperation between the vehicle specification chip and the intelligent vehicle operating system. At the same time, we can establish the automatic driving classification standard and cover the chip certification, so as to form the supervision and cooperation of software and hardware integration.
In the long run, Zeng Qinghong suggested that overseas automobile chip enterprises should be actively guided to invest in China, strengthen node research, and make breakthroughs in the card neck fields such as automobile chip R & D, manufacturing and packaging. At the same time, it is suggested to increase support and talent introduction.
Wang Fengying also believes that cultivating talents for automotive chips is the key to promoting the long-term sustainable development of domestic chips. She suggested that from the top-level design, we should step up the long-term strategic layout, establish a long-term mechanism for the introduction and training of vehicle specification chip industry talents, and earnestly implement the construction of the echelon of technical talents in the semiconductor industry.
continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles
In this year's government work report, it is clearly proposed to support the consumption of new energy vehicles and encourage local governments to carry out green smart appliances to the countryside and trade in the old for the new.
The reporter of securities times · e company noted that this is not the first time that new energy vehicles have been written into the government work report. Since 2016, the "figure" of new energy vehicles has appeared in almost every year's government work report.
Behind the frequent inclusion in the government work report is the continuous support of the central and local governments for the new energy vehicle industry. From the subsidy policy of new energy vehicles to the rural policy of new energy vehicles, in the past decade, China's new energy vehicle industry has shown a state of rapid growth with the strong support of the government, and is also in a leading position in the world.
According to the data, in 2021, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China were 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. In January this year, China's new energy vehicles continued to grow, with production and sales of 452000 and 431000 vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times.
During the two sessions of this year, Xiao Yaqing, Minister of industry and information technology, revealed in an interview with the media: "the sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in the first two months of this year are very good, both of which have more than doubled. It is expected that the expected target can be achieved this year, which may greatly exceed the expected target."
Previously, several industry institutions have estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 5.5 million in 2022. At the same time, the new energy vehicle market has changed from policy driven to market driven.
Recently, Xin Guobin, Minister of industry and information technology, also made the latest judgment on the development situation of new energy vehicle industry. Xin Guobin said that at present, the development of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry has entered a new stage of large-scale and rapid development, and it is expected to maintain a high-speed growth trend this year. The Ministry of industry and information technology will pay close attention to studying and clarifying the support policies such as the extension of preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles, optimize the management method of "double points", do a good job in the effective connection with the decline of subsidies, and stabilize market expectations.
During the two sessions this year, many deputies to the National People's Congress and members of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference in the automotive industry put forward many suggestions around the field of new energy vehicles. Among them, many suggestions are related to subsidies and promotion fees.
The notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022 issued by the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions shows that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. At the same time, 2022 is also the last year of financial subsidies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles.
According to the policy press conference, the new energy vehicle market set off a wave of price rise, and many auto enterprises raised the prices of their models. According to the judgment of insiders, the general price increase of new energy vehicles reflects the pressure of car enterprises after the decline of subsidies.
Zeng Qinghong believes that the development of new energy vehicles is of great significance to achieve the "double carbon" goal and promote the high-quality transformation of the industry. China has implemented the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles for many years, which has played a key role in the growth of emerging markets. Now the national subsidy is declining and will stop at the end of this year, which will lead to high enterprise costs on the supply side. At the same time, there are anxieties such as "charging difficulty" on the demand side, and the consumption enthusiasm needs to be improved.
Therefore, he suggested delaying state subsidies for one to two years, simplifying the procedures for receiving early subsidies and alleviating the financial pressure of enterprises.
Long Yunzhou, deputy to the National People's Congress and director of United new energy, also proposed to extend the period of exemption from purchase tax and consumption tax for consumers to purchase new energy vehicles until December 2025. At the same time, it is suggested to give special low interest loans or issue special bonds to new energy vehicle enterprises to support the development of new energy vehicle enterprises from another dimension.
Gong Huiming, senior project director of China transportation project of energy foundation, told the reporter of securities times · e company that the withdrawal of financial subsidies for new energy vehicles is an inevitable trend. This is not a bad thing for industrial development. At present, the competition pattern of China's new energy vehicle market is becoming increasingly clear, and different models have different division of labor. In the future, the government's support may put more emphasis on differentiated, accurate and high-quality guidance, and will no longer stay in inclusive financial support.
Some insiders believe that since we want to promote the differentiation and accuracy of government support for the new energy vehicle industry, we can consider turning the subsidy to the demand side. Zeng Qinghong believes that it is necessary for the state to adjust the strategic direction of the subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, so as to achieve the purpose of "boosting consumption and encouraging construction". It is suggested that the subsidy policy should be inclined to the demand side and supporting construction, and other incentive policies should be improved as soon as possible to ensure the effective and sustainable development of the market after the subsidy for new energy vehicles is completely stopped.
Fang Yunzhou also suggested that personal subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles can be increased, and personal income tax can be deducted for the purchase of new energy vehicles.
"In the past, our subsidies for new energy vehicles were supplied to enterprises, and consumers did not enjoy too many substantive concessions," Fang Yunzhou told the reporter of securities times · e company. Shifting the subsidies to the demand side can continue to stimulate the consumption of new energy vehicles.
As an emerging industry, the expansion and prosperity of the market of new energy vehicles not only need the support of policies, the opening up of upstream resources and the strength of enterprises, but also need the bottom from downstream links.
At the national two sessions this year, the suggestions on infrastructure construction and energy supplement of new energy vehicles were also very concentrated. Among them, Yin Tongyue, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Chery Automobile, suggested that the problems existing in the construction and operation and maintenance of charging infrastructure should be promoted from the top-level design level, relevant standards should be issued, the charging infrastructure of new energy vehicles should be optimized, the charging facilities within the unit and the park should be explored, and the integrated pilot application of "optical storage, charging and discharging" should be carried out.
Lei Jun, deputy to the National People's Congress and founder of Xiaomi company, brought "suggestions on accelerating the construction of high-power and fast charging infrastructure for new energy vehicles". As a representative of the new forces that have just made cars across the border, Lei Jun's proposal has attracted extensive attention in the industry.
Lei Jun said that at present, high-power fast charging stations are mainly built by enterprises independently, and the construction layout, scale and technical indicators are lack of overall planning. It is suggested to formulate a new generation of high-power fast charging network planning scheme, clarify the key objectives such as construction scale, land planning and charging capacity, and strengthen the popularization of high-power charging infrastructure.
Li Shufu, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Geely Holding Group, focused on the field of power exchange. In his opinion, compared with the layout speed of charging piles, the laying efficiency of the replacement power station is still slightly backward.
Relevant data show that in 2021, the number of charging piles in China was 2.617 million, an increase of 55.7% year-on-year, while the number of replacement power stations in China was only 1192.
Li Shufu said that compared with the traditional charging pile charging mode, the vehicle power separation power exchange mode has two advantages: efficient energy supplement and cost reduction. He therefore suggested that
Accelerate to clarify the relevant provisions on the construction of power exchange station, high and low voltage box transformer, land and construction approval, and bring them into the national market management standard system; Accelerate the standardization and generalization of power exchange mode.
Gong Huiming told the reporter of securities times · e company that at present, there is no obvious route dispute in the field of energy supplement of new energy vehicles, whether it is slow charge, high-power fast charge or power change. What kind of energy supplement route should be implemented in which regions and models needs to be coordinated in combination with various factors. In the future, with the innovation of battery technology, the energy supplement and infrastructure construction of new energy vehicles will also face new changes.
