On March 9, the National Bureau of statistics will release the national consumer price index (CPI) in February. Many institutions predict that the increase of CPI in February may continue to fallP align = "center" CPI up and down trend chart. From the National Bureau of Statistics
the year-on-year increase of CPI in february may fall back
Driven by the expansion of pork price decline, the year-on-year increase of national consumer price (CPI) in January fell significantly.
What will be the year-on-year increase of CPI in February? According to statistics, the average forecast value of 21 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in February is 0.84%. If the above average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase of CPI in February will continue to fall slightly.
"With the end of the Spring Festival, since the beginning of February, the food Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price has decreased month on month, and the year-on-year decline is basically the same. The pork price continues the downward trend, and the wholesale price has fallen below 20 yuan / kg in late February. From February 1 to 22, the national average wholesale price of pork was 20.53 yuan / kg, down nearly 7.4 percentage points from the previous month." Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) financial research center senior researcher Liu Xuezhi said.
"The terminal retail prices of industrial consumer goods have generally increased, driving the slow rise of non food prices." Liu Xuezhi pointed out that after calculation, the tail warping factor of CPI in February was - 0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month. Based on the above factors, it is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI will be between 0.5% - 0.7%, with the median of 0.6%, and the increase will continue to narrow.
future CPI may stabilize and recover
According to the monitoring of 500 county fairs and collection points by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, in the first week of March, the national average price of pork was 23.71 yuan / kg, down 1.9% from the previous week and 50.0% year-on-year.
"At present, pork prices are still falling, and CPI may fluctuate at a low level in the short term. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic, terminal consumer demand will be repaired and improved, and CPI is expected to stabilize and recover in the future." Liu Xuezhi said that however, due to the difficulty of significant strengthening of terminal consumer demand, the recovery range after the short-term low shock of CPI will be relatively limited, and the overall price will be relatively mild.
Recently, the geopolitical conflict has led to the rapid rise of risk aversion in the market, and the price of bulk commodities led by energy has risen again, which has also aroused people's concern about inflation.
The chief researcher pointed out that China's inflation is expected to remain stable in the moderate range, but China's inflation is expected to remain stable in the future.
