Viewpoint: according to the PMI data for three consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MLF and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. In the short term, there was no substantive progress in the third round of Russia Ukraine negotiations, and risk aversion continued under the continuation of the conflict. China's consumption is blocked and market expectations are also declining as the epidemic worsens again. Following the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem, the Shanghai index also ushered in a new low adjustment, and the overall market downturn. However, technically, the decline of the three major indexes ushered in the deviation from the middle bottom, which also indicates that the phased bottom is getting closer and closer.
After opening in the morning, the market has several highlights:
First, the overseas market was low, and the opening of A-Shares was relatively strong. This is relatively abnormal. After all, A-Shares often follow the decline but not the rise, so there was a decline after the opening. However, this relatively strong opening also indicates that the downward momentum of the short-term market may be gradually weakening, so there is no need to be too pessimistic;
Secondly, the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) surge boosted the sector and the index Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rarely disclosed monthly operation data, which shows that the company's sales in peak season have made a good start. This performance accelerated to exceed market expectations and laid a sound foundation for the completion of tasks throughout the year. It also raised the concern of the market, and also brought about a boost to share prices. The Baijiu sector was once on the rise, and the Shanghai Composite Index 50 was once red.
In addition, the Shanghai index ushered in this round of adjustment to a new low, and the falling resonance of the three major indexes opened again. After the opening decline today, the Shanghai index fell below the low point on January 28, and officially announced that it had ushered in a new low since the adjustment in December last year. So far, the adjustment of the three major indexes has ushered in a new downward resonance.
However, in the market decline, an important signal from the technical side is the deviation from the bottom of the index. The index point is constantly at a new low, while the MACD index is improving, and the technical side is backward. Although it does not indicate that the periodic bottom has appeared, at least it is getting closer and closer to the bottom. In addition, since this round of decline, according to the reference of wave theory, it currently belongs to the last wave of five waves of decline. This decline is often relatively fast, and once the bottom is completed, the phased bottom may also be established.
On the whole, there is no substantial negative in the market at present. Under the influence of the epidemic and overseas conflicts, the overall positive conditions such as the support of policy and the boost of monetary easing have been suppressed, but the foundation for the good is still there. Once the mood picks up, with the help of various parties, the market still has a good trend.
Therefore, in the short term, we observe the whole. According to experience and past laws, after continuous adjustment and rapid decline here, with the downward resonance of the index and technical deviation, a strong rebound in a single day will also appear, and a medium and long-term Yang may be ready to come out. For radical investors, we can continue to make strategic allocation in the short-term index adjustment, while for steady investors, we can patiently wait for the signal of market stabilization and make new decisions.
