Main points
The goal is not low, and the investment needs to catch up quickly
The most prominent feature of the 2022 government work report is that it has set a not low economic development goal – the real GDP growth rate of 5.5%. Although this target is lower than the growth rate in 2019 before the epidemic, it is higher than the two-year average growth rate in 2021. On the demand side, consumption slightly exceeded half of the level before the epidemic, while investment reached 80%. Only foreign trade continued the high light moment, which was better than that before the epidemic. In view of this, 5.5 is actually a not low goal. Under the current scenario, the realization of economic goals requires investment to catch up quickly, and is constrained by debt problems and the impact of the property market bubble. Investment rebound depends on structural reform. It is estimated that the central bank’s direct purchase assets or opening up, the Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) construction of the ecosystem of the yuan universe application scenario, or the policy orientation support.
YC moves down, and the capital market first suppresses and then rises
The growth target of 5.5% is lower than that before the epidemic, the economy is still dominated by stability, and the pressure of financial expansion is reduced. The relatively declining deficit ratio target also shows the decline of fiscal expansion, which is also conducive to the stability of macro leverage and the sustainability of fiscal policy. The decline of fiscal expansion or the decline of financing demand will drive the downward movement of the interest rate curve, the actual financing will grow steadily, and the liquidity policy goal will be achieved. When the term structure YC of interest rate moves down, the capital market valuation center will move up, and the trend of first restraining and then rising will remain unchanged throughout the year.
Policy has space and means, and we should work forward
Although the target of 5.5% is not high, facing the complex environment abroad and the triple pressure of China this year, we still need to climb the slope and make arduous efforts. In terms of policies, we should turn to positive policies in an all-round way. There is room and means for macro policies. We should strengthen cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation and strive to stabilize the overall economic market. In terms of fiscal policy, we should make good use of the amount of special debt, stimulate infrastructure construction and promote the expansion of effective investment; In terms of monetary policy, the aggregate structure is a two pronged approach. On the basis of the stable growth of the total amount of money and credit, the direction of structural support remains unchanged, guiding the decline of enterprise loan interest rates. In the future, the total amount policy of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction is still expected. In combination with Pratt & Whitney + green structural tools, we will promote the steady decline of enterprise financing costs.
Risk tips
Inflation continues to rise; Monetary policy changed more than expected.
