On March 8, the A-share market plunged again. The Shanghai stock index closed down by 2.35% and the gem index fell by 1.8%. The two indexes hit a new low since November 2020, and investors suffered heavy losses.
At present, the Russian Ukrainian conflict has entered its 13th day, and investors are gradually adapting to the impact of the conflict, but the panic in the market seems to be increasing instead of decreasing. What happened?
A-Shares fell over 4100
On March 8, the A-share market suffered heavy losses for the second consecutive day. The Shanghai stock index plunged 2.35% to 329353 points, falling below the 3300 point mark for the first time since November 2020; The Shenzhen composite index fell 2.62% to 122445 points; The gem index fell 1.8% to 258299 points, falling below 2600 points for the first time since November 2020.
According to the data of China Unicom, as of the closing, there were 4176 falling stocks and 445 rising stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, with about 90% of the falling stocks.
On the disk, 31 shenwanyi industries fell across the board, with coal, nonferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries falling the most, down 5.43%, 4.87% and 4.2% respectively; The food and beverage, power equipment and electronic industries fell the last, down 0.24%, 1.03% and 1.08% respectively.
Popular concepts only count from the east to the west, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) concepts recorded a slight increase. The concept sectors such as covid-19 treatment, assisted reproduction, transgenic, triplet and Helicobacter pylori all plummeted by more than 6%.
From the perspective of capital, the full day trading volume of A-Shares reached 1.11 trillion yuan on March 8, an increase of more than 80 billion yuan over the previous day, and exceeded trillion yuan for the fourth consecutive trading day. Following the net outflow of about 8.3 billion yuan the previous day, the net outflow of funds from the North was about 8.7 billion yuan again, and about 17 billion yuan in two days.
foreign capital encircles and suppresses Chinese nickel giants
Behind the sharp decline of a shares, the market is still focusing on the situation in Russia and Ukraine. According to China Central Television News, on the evening of March 7 local time, after the third round of Russia Ukraine negotiations, a member of the Ukrainian delegation said that consultations with Russia on a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities would continue, and there were still no substantive results on relevant issues.
According to Xinhua news agency, the head of the Russian delegation and assistant to the President Dmitry medynski said on the 7th that the third round of Russian Ukrainian negotiations held in belowege forest in Belarus did not achieve the expected results, but the negotiations between the two sides will continue. Russia hoped that the two sides could sign at least one agreement, but Ukraine said it would take all the negotiation documents back for study, and no documents were signed on the site.
It is noteworthy that with the soaring price of LME nickel for two consecutive trading days, it has exceeded the mark of US $100000 / ton for the first time in history. On March 8, a market rumor that Qingshan holding group, a Chinese nickel mining giant, was forced to close its position attracted widespread attention.
Public information shows that Qingshan holding group is headquartered in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province. Qingshan holding group is a private enterprise specializing in stainless steel production. It has formed the layout of the whole industry chain from nickel mining, ferronickel smelting to stainless steel smelting, stainless steel continuous casting billet production and stainless steel sector. Among the Fortune Global 500 in 2021, Castle Peak holdings ranked 279th with an annual revenue of US $42.4 billion and a profit of US $1.1 billion.
It is rumored that Glencore, a global commodity trading giant, forced Qingshan holding group to hold a position on LME nickel. Because Russian nickel was kicked out of the exchange and could not be delivered, Qingshan holding group did not deliver 200000 tons of nickel in an empty single delivery and suffered huge losses.
On March 8, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan opened 3% higher and then fell to the limit, and the non-ferrous metal sector fell more than 4%. Some analysts believe that it is related to the above rumors. Public information shows that Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) is one of the nickel mine development partners of Qingshan holding group.
Castle Peak Holdings Group has not made a positive response to the rumors.
alert to the risk of closing positions in the financing dish
However, are the rumors about the encirclement and suppression of Qingshan holding group the main reason for the sharp decline of a shares? Obviously not. The volume of Qingshan holding group is obviously not enough to trigger the overall decline of the market. Analysts believe that a series of chain reactions triggered by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the recurrence of the epidemic in China, the decline of the overnight peripheral market and the expected warming of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike are still the main concerns of the current A-share market.
Jiang Han, a senior researcher of Pangu think tank, said in an interview with Huaxia times recently that the direct impact of the Russian Ukrainian crisis on A-Shares may not be as great as expected, but various indirect effects will be very far-reaching.
At present, the sanctions imposed on Russia by European and American countries are continuously escalating. According to China CCTV reported, US Secretary of state Blinken 6 said that the United States is working with its European allies to jointly study the possibility of prohibiting the import of Russian oil. The market is worried that this move may trigger a global energy crisis and further escalate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In the early morning of March 8, Beijing time, the European and American stock markets fell sharply overnight, and the US NASDAQ index, the European Stoxx 50 index and the German DAX index fell into a bear market together. Under the sharp decline of peripheral markets, sensitive northward funds fled on a large scale on the 8th, and the A-share market fell into further panic.
In addition, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting from March 15 to 16 next week. Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, global commodity prices rose and global inflation expectations rose. It is generally expected that the Fed’s interest rate hike at this meeting is a certainty. The only question is whether to raise interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The Fed’s interest rate hike is bound to lead to the return of funds to the United States, which will disturb the stock market in the short term.
Looking forward to the future of a shares, financial commentator Guo Shiliang told the reporter of Huaxia times that if the market continues to fall irrationally, we need to be vigilant against the risk of closing positions in the financing market. He also believes that external factors are only a fuse. The key is to do a good job in the risk defense of the A-share market, maintain a sustained and stable liquidity level, release warm wind at the policy level, and stabilize the current market investment confidence.
