Following the super cycle of centralized transportation and dry bulk transportation, there are obvious signs of recovery in the oil transportation market.
On March 4, the freight rate of the European route of Baltic oil tanker increased by US $30000 to US $241000 / day, at least the highest since 2008.
According to dateyes, as of March 4, the Baltic maritime transport index (crude oil) BDTI was 1474 points, up 103.3% from 725 points on February 23 this year, while the last BDTI breakthrough of 1000 points occurred in March 2020.
An Guangyong, an expert of the credit management committee of the all union mergers and acquisitions Association, told the Securities Daily that the rise in global oil prices caused by geopolitical conflicts led to the rise in freight costs.
crude oil transportation index soared
For the recovery of oil transportation prices, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities had predicted as early as years ago.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said in the research report that the sharp drop in oil prices from March to April 2020 stimulated a short-term frenzy in the global oil storage and transportation market, and then entered a long bottom of supply and demand. The delivery of crude oil to the warehouse has been completed first and basically. The floating warehouse has recovered to the pre epidemic level, and the supply elasticity has been relatively limited. The environmental protection policy is expected to accelerate the clearance of transportation capacity, and the oil transportation market will gradually recover in the next two years.
However, due to the sudden geopolitical impact, the recovery of oil transportation came ahead of schedule. As of March 4, the freight of European routes of Baltic oil tankers increased by US $30000 / day.
On February 23, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) transportation industry research report said that VLCC Middle East China TCE fell to less than 12000 US dollars / day and remained in the doldrums. Compared with European routes, the oil transportation price of Middle East routes is still in a low position, with great regional differentiation.
“Russia accounts for 25% of the world’s oil and gas exports, while 40% of the EU’s natural gas and 33% of its oil come from Russia. Although the current international market has not begun to sanction Russia’s energy trade, many European and American energy companies have begun to stop importing energy from Russia and carry out ‘self-determination’, self-determination and gamma (soaring) It is the current two key words of the crude oil market. First, take the initiative to stop buying Russian crude oil, and the absence of large suppliers has caused tension in energy trade. Second, there are no ships intended to go to the Black Sea. It is difficult for crude oil buyers to find shipping companies willing to ship to Russian ports, so freight rates are soaring. ” State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) Yangtze River Delta financial center asset management analyst Liang Yukun told Securities Daily.
With regard to the soaring oil transportation prices of European routes, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said in the research report that, on the one hand, the European region is highly dependent on Russian energy. At present, about 2.3 million barrels / day of Russian crude oil flows westward to the export terminals of the Baltic Sea and the black sea through the pipeline network and directly to the refineries in central and Eastern Europe. If the regional situation worsens and Western countries impose sanctions on Russia, European refineries will turn to the Middle East to import crude oil, and Russia will also look for alternative customers. At that time, the crude oil transportation distance will be lengthened and the overall crude oil transportation price will be significantly improved. On the other hand, regional conflicts have led to concerns about the stability of the supply chain between import and export sides, and the freight rates of relevant routes may increase significantly in the short term.
a-share oil transportation target “show up and say the market”
In the view of insiders, the rise in oil transportation prices caused by the sharp rise in oil prices is difficult to end in the short term.
The two giants in China’s oil transportation sector are China Merchants Energy Shipping Co.Ltd(601872) and Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) respectively. Other companies such as Nanjing Tanker Corporation(601975) have low market share.
In 2021, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) and China Merchants Group accounted for more than 40% of the total transportation capacity in the domestic refined oil shipping market, and the transportation capacity share reached 43.8% with the participation and holding of COSCO Group in Beihai shipping and CNOOC. In the domestic crude oil shipping market, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) and Beihai Shipping Co., Ltd., a joint-stock company, account for 92% of the total transportation capacity.
March 3, China Merchants Energy Shipping Co.Ltd(601872) said in the interactive Q & A of SSE e: “the company’s tanker fleet currently owns and operates 52 VLCC tankers (global operation) and 5 aframax tankers (mainly operating in Atlantic China Welding Consumables Inc(600558) market) 。 Closely related to the company’s performance are VLCC middle east east east, West Africa far east and Meiwan / North Sea Far East routes. As of the evening of March 2, the freight index of middle east east east VLCC route was ws55 / 56, which was lower than the recent low ws31 5. The sharp rise compared with the previous year was mainly affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine. “
Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) replied to investors earlier that in the distribution of VLCC routes of the company, the proportion of routes from the Middle East to the Far East is high, and they are flexibly positioned according to the market conditions of different regions. Other small and medium-sized oil tankers engaged in foreign trade are mainly operated in routes in the Asia Pacific region.
For the future oil transportation price trend, Yue Xin, chief analyst of the transportation industry of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Research Institute, told reporters that on the one hand, although the global crude oil terminal consumption has gradually recovered, destocking first, and the recovery of oil transportation demand is slow. On the other hand, the rising oil price led to the disappearance of futures premium arbitrage, and the floating position VLCC returned to the spot market, continuously increasing the supply of effective capacity. According to our tracking, it is estimated that the capacity utilization rate of 2021q3 oil transportation market has basically bottomed out. Considering that the destocking of crude oil and the release of floating warehouse capacity are basically completed, it is expected that the crude oil shipping trade will accelerate with the recovery of end consumption in the future, and the tanker market will start to recover gradually from 2022 to 2023.
“The oil transportation price mainly depends on the progress of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. If the conflict ends earlier, the oil transportation price will fall. But even if the conflict ends, if the financial sanctions continue, it will still affect the oil price. In other words, it may take some time for the oil price to completely fall back to the original level.” An Guangyong told reporters.
Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, told reporters: “according to the current international situation, if the international community’s sanctions against Russia caused by geopolitical conflict cannot be terminated soon or will even be further strengthened, the high oil transportation price will last for a long time.”
