In the first week of March, many leading listed pig enterprises welcomed intensive institutional research, focusing on the development trend of the industry, the expected performance of pig prices, and the capital operation of related companies.
The industry believes that relevant enterprises will accelerate the de industrialization of production capacity, the worst performance point has passed, breeding stocks will face emotional and performance repair, and pig prices are expected to enter the recovery channel in the third quarter.
listed pig enterprises or accelerate capacity removal
It shows that three pig enterprise leaders, including Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) and others, have been investigated by institutions for 86, 54 and 57 times in the past week, respectively.
In essence, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices have risen rapidly, further pushing up the cost of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal. Since this year, the price of pig fattening feed has been raised at least three times.
"At present, the feed price rise is affected by the decline of soybean production and international politics, and the cost of soybean meal is rising rapidly. The main reason for the feed price rise this time is the surge in the purchase cost of soybean meal, and the demand caused by the rise of pig stock is also an important force driving the rise." Guo Gang, pig analyst of Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) business unit, told the reporter of Securities Daily.
He believes that according to the current pig price trend and elimination situation, it is difficult to determine the specific inflection point of the cycle. However, it is estimated that the number of fertile sows began to decrease last year. It is expected that the inflection point of the pig cycle may appear in July this year, which will accelerate the de production capacity of relevant companies.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) the relevant person of the board secretary office told the reporter that the company will continue to strengthen strategic procurement and professional line management, effectively control the procurement cost of raw materials, and timely adjust the nutritional formula according to the changes of market raw material prices to effectively control the feed cost.
third quarter pig price may enter the recovery channel
For the judgment of pig price in 2022, relevant enterprises and experts believe that pig price may enter the recovery channel in the third quarter.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) believes that from the perspective of supply side, the production capacity has been partially eliminated, but it has not been fully cleared. At present, it is in the process of oscillation at the bottom of the cycle. According to relevant data, the current stock is still higher than the normal level, and the deregulation of pig production capacity will continue. The future market trend mainly depends on the length and depth of deregulation of production capacity. From the demand side, according to the experience of previous years, the traditional off-season for pork consumption is generally after the Spring Festival.
The company expects the pig price to remain at a low position in the first half of 2022, and the deregulation of industrial capacity will accelerate. It is optimistically estimated that after the third quarter of 2022, pig prices may enter the upward channel of the next cycle; It is pessimistic to estimate that 2022 is still at the breakeven line, and it may take 2023 to enter the uplink channel of the next cycle.
\u3000\u3000 "The current pig price is low, which is due to both the relative surplus of supply and the demand side. At this stage, the marginal change of supply has a greater impact than the marginal change of consumption, and the main contradiction is the relative surplus of supply. However, in recent year, covid-19 epidemic broke out frequently in many places, and the consumer catering side was also obviously affected, which has an impact on the current pig price. I predict that Pig prices will improve in the second half of the year. " Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) think.
"Recently, the pig price should have reached a historical low, which should be a big blow to many pig enterprises. On the whole, the pig price is expected to stabilize in the second quarter, that is, when it comes to the bottom, it should rise slightly in the third quarter, but the overall range will not be too large." Zhu danpeng, a researcher at China Food Business Research Institute, told reporters.
pig enterprises operate frequently
In view of the continuous decline in pork prices and the recent sharp rise in feed prices, coupled with the cost growth caused by the previous expansion, the performance of listed pig enterprises is generally under pressure. According to public data, in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) was about 13.3 billion yuan Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will lose 980 million yuan to 1.15 billion yuan in 2021 Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will lose 820 million yuan to 995 million yuan in 2021 Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will lose 18.2 billion yuan to 19.7 billion yuan in 2021.
"Pig enterprises should not only face high feed costs, but also bear the financial pressure brought by operation and management and biosafety. Among them, feed costs account for more than 70% of the cost of pig breeding, and the rise of feed prices undoubtedly increases the breeding cost of pig enterprises, and the loss caused by low pig prices has become the norm." Guo Gang thinks.
In view of the continuous fluctuation of pig cycle, the capital operation of many listed pig enterprises is also "full of tricks", such as revitalizing the sale of assets, optimizing the structure, vigorously distributing supporting businesses, extending the industrial chain, etc.
Since the second half of last year, a number of listed pig enterprises have sold assets and focused their business objectives on pig breeding. On March 5, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) plans to sell 51% equity of Huayang pharmaceutical with RMB 153 million. Last year, the company transferred a subsidiary whose main business is communication technology with a total transaction amount of RMB 673165 million.
Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) will announce in February 2022 that it will carry out fixed increase financing of RMB 5 billion to 6 billion, and it is planned to use all the fund-raising amount to supplement working capital.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) said that at present, the company has abundant capital reserves. By the end of January 2022, the company has all kinds of available funds of about 12 billion yuan, and the existing production capacity is relatively abundant. Considering the current depressed market of the pig industry, the company's capital expenditure is relatively cautious. It is estimated that the initial capital expenditure in 2022 will be 4 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan, focusing on pig breeding communities, pig slaughtering projects and chicken raising projects. At this stage, the investment and construction of pig farms will not be increased.
\u3000\u3000 "Pig enterprises should do a good job in transformation and development. In addition to selling assets, they should also lengthen the industrial chain and achieve orderly exit. Due to the large scale and volume of pig enterprises, they need more continuous cash flow. Selling some assets does not mean that the breeding industry will not develop in the future; in addition to asset transformation, the cooperation between pig enterprises is also expanding, such as the greater the degree of enterprise integration Come higher and higher, the strong combination of leaders, and carry out new business models. " Wang Peng, an associate professor at Renmin University of China, told reporters.
