Many factors helped nickel prices soar, and the performance of many concept stocks increased in 2021.
lme nickel once rose 90%
On March 7, LME nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange hit a record high, with an intraday high of 90.13% to US $55000 / ton, and closed down to US $50300 / ton, an increase of 73.93%. The one-day increase of the futures is rare in history. The previous one-day maximum increase was no more than 20%.
China’s nickel price has changed in advance. Shanghai nickel rose by 12% on the word board yesterday and 15% at night. The latest quotation is 228800 yuan / ton, which has risen by 50.95% since the beginning of the year. According to the data of business agency, on March 7, the nickel price soared sharply, and the spot price was reported as 21116667 yuan / ton, up 10.45% from the previous trading day and 71.4% year-on-year.
The rise of nickel price may be affected by geopolitical factors. Russia is the third largest nickel producer in the world, accounting for about 9-11% of the global nickel ore supply. Recently, the market has been worried about the Russian nickel supply, and the futures price has risen rapidly. In addition, due to the continued strong downstream demand, nickel inventory has continued to decline since last year. London metal exchange data show that as of March 7, Lun nickel inventory was 76800 tons, down 2304 tons from the same period last week.
power battery drives high demand for nickel
Since last year, the global demand for nickel has increased significantly. According to the report data of the world Bureau of metal statistics, the supply shortage in the global nickel market reached 144300 tons in 2021, while the oversupply was 84000 tons in 2020.
According to China Central Television finance and economics, high nickel batteries are gradually becoming an important development direction of ternary lithium batteries. A lithium battery new energy Co., Ltd. in Gansu Province said that the order volume in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 360% compared with the first quarter of 2021. The overall demand for “ternary precursors” in 2022 is about 360 tons higher than that in 2021.
The rapid growth of nickel demand has driven overseas imports. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in 2021, nickel ore and electrolytic nickel imported 43.529 million tons and 262000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and 100%. On the other hand, sudden changes in the supply side triggered a rapid rise in nickel prices. In 2021, the average spot price of electrolytic nickel was 137000 yuan / ton, up 25.6% year-on-year.
It is understood that the downstream demand for nickel includes the production of stainless steel and various alloys, electroplating as a corrosion-resistant surface layer, raw materials for power batteries, etc. The rapid development of power batteries in the past two years has contributed a major increment to the demand for nickel. Recently, Yang Yanxia, director of marketing department of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) new materials industry group, said that the application proportion of nickel in the field of lithium batteries is increasing, which was about 3.5% in 2015, 16.1% in 2021 and is expected to rise to about 21.5% in 2022.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that high nickel ternary is the long-term trend of lithium battery development. From the cost side, the cost of raw materials can account for as much as 90%, and there is still some room for reducing the cost of raw materials. Due to the shortage of global cobalt resources and the great influence of the international trade situation, the cobalt price fluctuates greatly, and the price center is at a high level all year round. With the worldwide promotion of vehicle electrification and the formation of high nickel trend of ternary battery, the demand for nickel sulfate will maintain a rapid growth trend.
pre increase of multiple concept shares
According to the statistics of securities times · data treasure, there are 9 concept stocks with nickel layout in a shares. Some stocks rose sharply yesterday, Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) rose 12.84%, Pengxin International Mining Co.Ltd(600490) limit, Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) rose 6.01%.
Affected by the rise of nickel price, the performance of concept stocks generally increased in 2021, and 6 stocks have announced the performance forecast, of which 5 stocks increased in advance, Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Inner Mongolia Xingye Mining Co.Ltd(000426) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) are expected to have the highest median growth rates of 2015.5%, 233.26% and 220% respectively.
Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) announcement shows that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 1.041-1.341 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1762% to 2269%. The nickel sector of the company achieved full production in the first full fiscal year. In 2021, the output of nickel, cobalt and copper reached the highest level in history, and the unit profitability of nickel, cobalt and copper products increased significantly year-on-year.
In terms of capital flow, yesterday Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Pengxin International Mining Co.Ltd(600490) received a net inflow of more than 100 million yuan, of which Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) net inflow was 317 million yuan, ranking the first among all a shares. The company said on the investor’s question and answer platform that in 2020, the company’s Ruimu nickel cobalt laterite project achieved an average annual yield of 103.2%, ranking first in the world in terms of hydrometallurgical laterite nickel ore, and has achieved overproduction for four consecutive years since 2016.
Pengxin International Mining Co.Ltd(600490) said that the wholly-owned subsidiary of the company participated in the subscription of shares of clean TEQ company in 2017. The company owns high-grade large-scale nickel cobalt scandium deposit in New South Wales, Australia, and has the patented technology of resin adsorption ion exchange leaching
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