Looking back on Monday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets basically showed a unilateral downward trend throughout the day. In the morning, the three major stock indexes opened low and walked low. In the afternoon, the stock index continued to fluctuate and adjust. Although it was close to the end of the day, the index showed signs of slight tail warping, but it did not change the weak pattern of the whole day. Among them, the gem index and Shenzhen composite index simultaneously refreshed the recent low, the Shanghai index fell 3400 points, and finally the three indexes all closed in the form of a great negative line.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the global stock market suffered a black Monday. The weak Hong Kong stocks suffered another sharp decline and the downturn spread to a shares. However, at present, the valuation quantile of the whole market has been less than 45%, and the valuation is within a reasonable range. Therefore should not panic too much. Instead, we should seize the opportunity to adjust and absorb .
The agency further analyzed that for the current hot cycle direction, it is recommended to pursue the rise cautiously, because the current round of price rise in the cycle is mainly due to the short-term contradiction on the supply side, not the strong demand side. Therefore, the runaway price may not have continuity, but it should also be cautious about the great inflationary pressure under the surge of crude oil, and non trading investors should not participate in the short-term game. In terms of operation, suggests paying attention to the undervalued varieties in the direction of steady growth. At the same time, pay attention to the long-term allocation opportunities of Hong Kong stocks, especially China concept stocks, and cautiously chase up .
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that the reasons for the sharp decline of A shares on Monday may be mainly due to the following two points . First, the “resonance” impact caused by the increased risk of external market uncertainty led to the rise of global risk aversion. Specifically, gold and other risk averse sectors closed higher against the market, which may reflect the impact of geographical risks on the sentiment of a shares. Second, the epidemic situation in many places in China worsened again, exacerbated the repair pressure on the consumer side, and affected market expectations.
In the macro aspect, the agency further mentioned that China’s foreign trade data from January to February released a few days ago are relatively good on the whole, but the current pressure on China’s “steady growth” is still large. In the near future, the monetary and credit policies are expected to be further fulfilled, and the liquidity is expected to remain relatively abundant. In terms of the general trend of a shares, we emphasize again that the current global situation is very complex, so we still need to be vigilant against the impact of external market fluctuations on the Chinese market , and we suggest paying attention to the middle and upper reaches of “stable growth” such as nonferrous metals and real estate in the short term.
As for the future market, the Zhongyuan strategy points out that it is expected that the stock indexes of the two cities are more likely to find the bottom through shock before the external market effectively stops falling and stabilizes . Mainstream sectors took turns to decline, and precious metals, non-ferrous metals, medicine and the concept of three children became the main direction of capital hedging. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of policy, capital and external market. It is expected that the short-term shock of the Shanghai stock index is more likely to go down, and the GEM market is more likely to continue to go down and seek support in the short term. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
However, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said that the better strategy to deal with market fluctuations is to wait and see the trend of events in the medium term, the market sentiment is still at a relatively low point, so we can be more optimistic from defensive to offensive stage, A-Shares may usher in a small and medium-sized growth moment . Under the defensive idea, the undervalued value is preferred, but in the subsequent context of “worry free inside and trouble free outside”, when A-Shares change from defensive to offensive, the undervalued value sector is difficult to have relative returns, even the infrastructure sector with stable growth attribute.
In addition, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) believes that the escalation of peripheral conflicts has been gradually expected by the market. It is expected that the prices of industrial resource products will return to rationality and the epidemic situation in China will be effectively controlled in the future with the implementation of the Fed’s interest rate hike expected to promote the recovery of risk sentiment at home and abroad, superimposed with the window period of the annual report and the first quarterly report and the correction of liquidity expectations, there is still a meal market in the A-share market in the first half of the year .
In terms of industry configuration, the agency said, with the advent of the first quarterly report verification period, the leaders of boom tracks such as new energy, semiconductor, medicine and military industry are expected to usher in phased repair , and the necessary consumer sectors such as agriculture, food and textile clothing benefiting from inflation expectations are also expected to usher in performance repair. In the medium term, social service, retail, catering, shipping and other offline economic recovery related industries are also ushering in the layout window period.
In terms of operational strategy, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) believes that the overall equity assets may continue to be suppressed when the overseas uncertainty is still large according to the situation at home and abroad. On the other hand, at present, the tone of China’s steady growth policy is still relatively clear and will continue to support relevant industry sectors. In terms of configuration, we believe that use a more balanced configuration to deal with many uncertainties outside China .
Specifically: I. reverse industries under low expectations and new theme investment are still important allocation directions : on the one hand, although the market is skeptical about the strength of steady growth, it can not be verified, and we believe that there is pressure on the overall macro economy in the first half of 2022, so the “steady growth” policy is still necessary, At present, the relevant sectors are falling synchronously with the index, with allocation opportunities, focusing on the direction of the power and real estate industry chain.
In addition, although the uncertainty of the epidemic situation may still disturb the recovery rhythm of catering, tourism, transportation and other industries, with the liberalization of overseas epidemic control and the further scientific prevention and control of the global epidemic, the “post epidemic” industry is expected to gradually achieve the expected repair or even reversal.
On the other hand, new thematic investments are still actively emerging: for example, digital economy, automotive intelligence, state-owned enterprise reform and other directions.
II, semiconductor and pharmaceutical technology sectors with strong long-term policy certainty, large industry space and accelerated domestic substitution, as well as military industry, new energy vehicles and other sectors , the valuation has been adjusted to a certain extent since the beginning of the year, especially the valuation of some leading companies and representative companies has begun to show the cost performance, focusing on photovoltaic Energy storage industry chain, lithium ore, semiconductor and other directions.
III. energy, upstream resource products and other sectors are still expected to benefit from the increase in global inflation expectations in the short term , so it is recommended to pay attention.
It is worth noting that Guosheng Securities pointed out that at present, there are great risks in the main indexes, most of the big white horses with heavy fund positions have broken and continued to decline, and at the same time, the hot sectors hyped with themes have an obvious and good profit-making effect. Therefore, need to change a certain investment style, observe the capital flow, allocate some positions to participate in the hot spots of the market, Grasp the rotation rhythm of the sector, control the position and be cautious in going long . Focus on covid-19 drug concept, photovoltaic and other opportunities.
