Spring breeze and “green” market shore, today (March 8) A shares continued the pattern of shock and decline. After the stock market began to fluctuate, there were signs of instability in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets; In the afternoon, the stock index once showed signs of rising and was suppressed and fell again. On the whole, the decline of A-Shares is obvious.
In this regard, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) previously mentioned that the current global situation is very complex, and it is still necessary to be vigilant against the impact of external market fluctuations on the Chinese market. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the middle and upper reaches of “stable growth” such as Nonferrous Metals and real estate.
At the same time, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) believes that the overall equity assets may continue to be suppressed when the overseas uncertainty is still large. On the other hand, at present, the tone of China’s steady growth policy is still relatively clear and will continue to support relevant industry sectors. In terms of allocation, we believe that a more balanced allocation is needed to deal with many uncertainties outside China.
sector:
I. precious metals
East Asia Qianhai Securities said that the intensification of international geopolitical contradictions is the main reason for the recent rise in gold prices. In addition, global inflation continued to rise, creating conditions for the rise in gold prices. First, according to the CPI year-on-year data released by European and American countries, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.5% year-on-year in January 2022, the highest level since August 1982; In January 2022, the CPI of the euro zone increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a record high. The recent rising crude oil price also reflects that the current inflation level is further rising. As an anti inflation asset, gold has sufficient upward mobility under the current high inflation level.
Secondly, the current market expectations for future interest rate hikes are becoming stronger and stronger. It is expected that the gold price will continue to be strong in the process of this round of interest rate hikes. On the one hand, as the time approaches March, the gold price remains strong, indicating that the negative effect of the current interest rate hike on gold is weakening and the market expectation is gradually digested. On the other hand, it is expected that this interest rate increase will have a limited impact on gold prices. During the past six interest rate hikes, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States has continued to increase, so this interest rate hike may not have an essential impact on inflation; At the same time, raising interest rates will curb economic recovery. As of February 23, 2022, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds was about 1.99%, up about 0.36pct from the beginning of the year The rapid rise of interest rate will bring operating pressure to enterprises and is not conducive to economic recovery.
The agency believes that the gold price has reached a new high. Under the influence of geopolitics, high inflation, fragile economic operation and the gradual disappearance of negative interest rate hikes, the gold price is expected to open an upward channel, and the gold production enterprises may benefit. The relevant targets include Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Western Region Gold Co.Ltd(601069) , etc.
Chuancai securities also pointed out that since the beginning of the year, due to the high inflation in the United States and the repricing of monetary policy, the double killing of U.S. stocks and bonds has been promoted, and the safe haven attribute of gold has regained its favor of funds, and the investment targets, including gold related stocks, gold ETFs and gold futures, have received capital inflows. The subsequent gold price is expected to continue to strengthen under the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical factors.
II, wine
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that for Baijiu industry, short-term efforts should be made in the long term, and the trend of structural upgrading will not be changed. Around the Spring Festival, the epidemic control and control were relatively relaxed compared with 2021, and the terminal consumption scenarios were restored. The liquor industry’s overall sales performance was stable and the channel refunds were good, but the regional differentiation characteristics (mainly caused by the epidemic in some areas) were repeated, and the performance of the Baijiu liquor was relatively better. From 2 to March, the Baijiu industry will enter the “shrinkage stage”. But the good performance of the Spring Festival has laid a good foundation for the first quarter. We think that Baijiu 22Q1 can start a good start.
For the peak season, pay attention to the opportunity + systematic effect of price increase in the beer industry. On the whole, the logic of high-end industry continues to be deduced. It is expected that with the recovery of catering demand and the decline of raw material prices (the high glass price fell in January), the price increase effect of the industry is expected to be realized in the peak season of 21q2, and the report performance will release high elasticity.
Financial letter Securities said that the current position of the Baijiu sector can be more positive. At present, the biggest difficulty faced by the industry is that the macroeconomic downturn affects the consumption capacity, while at the industry level, the price and inventory of famous wines are healthy, and the industry order is improving. Looking forward to the future, (1) the impact of the epidemic is gradually passivated, epidemic prevention policies are more flexible, and the scope of limited consumption scenarios will be further reduced; (2) With the steady growth policy, macroeconomic stabilization and recovery is a relatively certain trend. At present, the fundamentals of the industry are mainly stable, and it is expected to strengthen again with the recovery of macro viewing attitude in the future. However, due to the uncertainty of the recovery speed of consumption capacity, the weak demand period may continue for some time. This stage especially tests the channel price and inventory control ability of wine enterprises, and the winery needs to balance the volume and price.
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