From 200000 yuan to nearly 300000 yuan, the price of lithium salt took only more than two months.
According to the data, as of December 28, the lithium carbonate contract in February 2022 has risen to 294500 yuan / ton, only one step away from the 300000 yuan / ton mark.
According to the daily economic news, citing lithium mining enterprises in Western Sichuan, an offer of 300000 yuan / ton has been received, and the transaction can be concluded as long as the leaders agree.
The production and sales of new energy vehicles in November continued to be hot, driving the overall rise in the price of lithium salt in the downstream.
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China continued to set a new record in November, exceeding 400000 for the first time. In the same month, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 457000 and 450000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times respectively, and a month-on-month increase of 14.5% and 16.8%.
Among them, in November, the market penetration of new energy vehicles was 17.8%, and the market penetration of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.5%.
Overall, from January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times, and the market penetration reached 12.7%.
In terms of models, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 339000, a year-on-year increase of 116.1% and a month on month increase of 13.8%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 88000, with a year-on-year increase of 174.0% and a month on month increase of 30.3%.
Therefore, the output of power batteries is steadily increasing. According to China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, the output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automotive power battery in mid November was 28.2 GWH, with a year-on-year increase of 121.8% and a month on month increase of 12.3%.
The installed capacity of power battery also exceeded 20 GWH for the first time in November. The installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery in that month reached 20.8gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 96.2% and a month on month increase of 35.1%.
The overseas new energy vehicle market has also improved. According to the data of Caixin securities, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in the United States in November was about 60000, with a month on month increase of 8.37% and a penetration rate of 5.6%; In November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in major European regions was 170000, with a year-on-year increase of 24.09% and a month on month increase of 17.24%.
While the downstream demand continues to release, the upstream lithium ore and lithium salt are facing supply problems in the short term.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) according to the analysis, the power restriction in each region at the supply end and the gas restriction policy in heating season in Qinghai have a significant impact on lithium carbonate production. In addition, some manufacturers entering the annual maintenance stage will affect the lithium salt supply.
Longzhong information also said that Qinghai Province has reduced production to varying degrees in winter, Citic Guoan Information Industry Co.Ltd(000839) (000839. SZ) and the maintenance of Zangger lithium industry have not been started; An enterprise in Sichuan is tentatively scheduled to stop maintenance from December 10 to 15, which does not rule out the extension of time; An enterprise in Jiangxi stopped half in December and temporarily stopped all in January.
In addition to the Chinese market, the lithium ore supply in the international market has also been reduced.
As one of the core supply increment of lithium ore in 2022, Pilbara, an Australian Lithium Tantalum producer, recently lowered its concentrate production and shipment guidelines for the quarter of December and fiscal year 2022, which is expected to affect its actual output of about 10000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).
Among them, the output guidelines for the fourth quarter of 2021 were lowered to 85000-95000 tons of concentrate, compared with 90000-115000 tons of concentrate originally planned; In fiscal year 2022, the output is now reduced to 400000-450000 tons of concentrate, compared with 460000-510000 tons of concentrate originally planned.
In addition, the main new projects of Australia mining next year will focus on the end of the year. According to Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) statistics, in the third quarter of 2022, the production of 250000 tons of concentrate in wodgina will resume, and 50000 tons of LCE in kemerton will be put into operation; In the fourth quarter, 150000 tons of core lithium concentrate was put into operation.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that if the shortage of Australian mining workers cannot be solved, the actual output release of Australian mining next year will be lower than expected.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) also said that the global lithium resources project entered a new round of active period in 2021, but in addition to the expansion of the original project, the capacity construction of new entrants began at the end of 2021 and is expected to be put into operation as soon as the end of 2022. It is expected that the lithium supply and demand pattern will continue to be tense in 2022.
Compared with the soaring trend of lithium price, the performance of the secondary market is relatively weak recently. Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the market is worried that the lithium sector is still biased towards the cyclical attribute, the high price is difficult to maintain, and the profit of the cyclical high can not be valued. However, as the demand for new energy industry continues to improve next year, lithium prices will remain high throughout 2022.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is also expected that the lithium price will remain high in 2022, and the price inflection point will not appear in the short term. It is expected that the average price of lithium salt in 2022 will be higher than that in 2021, driving the performance of lithium companies to increase significantly.
As of the closing on December 28, the lithium mine index rose 6.5%, and all 14 enterprises under the index rose.
Among them, Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756. SZ), Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) (002192. SZ) rose by the limit, Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) (000762. SZ), Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) (002176. SZ) rose by more than 9%, and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466. SZ), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (000792. SZ), Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) (002738. SZ) followed.
(interface News)
