The turnover of A-Shares exceeded trillion today. So far, the annual turnover of the two cities has reached 254 trillion yuan, less than 370 billion from the record in 2015. If there is no accident, the annual turnover of A-Shares will reach a record high tomorrow morning.
is less than 370 billion
After yesterday’s turnover was less than trillion, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets returned to more than trillion today, which is the 147th time in the year that the turnover exceeded trillion, far exceeding 114 times in 2015.
In terms of total volume, as of the closing on December 28, the total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in the year reached 254.13 trillion yuan, a difference of only 369.037 billion yuan compared with the highest annual total turnover of 254.5 trillion yuan in the history of 2015. According to the daily turnover of the year, perhaps before the close of tomorrow, the total annual turnover in 2021 will exceed that in 2015, setting a new historical record.
Although the total turnover is still a little poor, the average daily turnover since 2021 has been 1.06 trillion yuan, exceeding 1.04 trillion yuan in 2015, the highest in history.
the longest record breaking trillion in a row
Not only has the average daily turnover reached the highest in history during the year, but also the longest turnover in history, breaking the trillion record.
According to the data of East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) choice, since the transaction volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded trillion for the first time in history on December 5, 2014, there have been only 10 times that the transaction volume of A-Shares exceeded trillion yuan for more than 10 consecutive trading days, including 3 times in 2015 and 2020 and 4 times in 2021.
In particular, from July 21 to September 29 this year, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded trillion for 49 consecutive trading days, the highest in history, exceeding that of 43 consecutive trading days in 2015, and the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded trillion for 46 consecutive trading days from October 22 to December 24.
is quantitative trading really the main reason?
For the transaction volume will reach a record high during the year, especially the longest continuous breaking trillion in history, many people in the market believe that the active quantitative transactions during the year are the main reason for the soaring transaction volume, and even a small number of people believe that the quantitative transactions contribute nearly half of the transaction volume.
It is undeniable that quantitative transactions played an important role in the high turnover during the year, which has become a consensus. However, in the view of most people in the industry, the contribution of 50% is too exaggerated. For example, Guan Qingyou believes that it is reasonable to quantify the transaction contribution of about 20% of the transaction volume; Wang hengpeng, general manager of 10 billion private jukuan investment, believes that quantitative transactions may only account for about 10% of trillion trading volume.
However, some insiders believe that quantitative trading is not the main reason for the expansion of turnover. Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Li Xunlei believes that increasing market differences and institutional position adjustment and stock exchange may be the main reasons. In addition, the gradual warming of personal investment enthusiasm may also have a significant impact on the amplification of transaction volume.
turnover rate hit a new high since 2015
Indeed, from the perspective of turnover rate, 2021 is the most active year since 2015. From the East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) all a index, East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) choice data show that as of the closing on December 28, the annual average daily turnover rate was 1.33%, the second highest since 2010, second only to 2015. Moreover, since the turnover rate reached a new low in 2018, the annual daily average turnover rate of East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) all a index has increased for three consecutive years.
the number of accounts opened for A-Shares is nearly 195 million
From the number of new investors during the year, the enthusiasm of individual investors has indeed increased significantly. According to China securities registration data, by the end of November this year, the number of investors who had opened A-share accounts had reached 195 million, a record high, an increase of 18.2279 million compared with 177 million at the end of 2020.
the market value of A-Shares exceeded 90 trillion yuan
Of course, some people in the industry believe that A-Shares are in the stage of rapid development and capacity expansion. It should be reasonable for the trading volume to be enlarged in terms of the total stock market value and the number of listed companies.
According to the data of East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) choice, as of the closing on December 28, 2021, there were nearly 4700 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The market value of A-Shares exceeded 90 trillion yuan, reaching 91.19 trillion yuan, 1.76 times that of the end of 2015.
trillion transactions will become the norm?
With the probability of turnover hitting a record high in the year and the turnover breaking trillion in more than 140 trading days in the year, it seems to most people that trillion turnover will become a new normal in the future.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, believes that since August 2021, with the admission of quantitative funds and many funds invested in real estate, more and more attention has been paid to the allocation of equity assets, increasing the proportion of investment in A-share funds and securities. At the same time, the investment sentiment of overseas funds in the Chinese market has been increasing. Under the current circumstances, Chen Li believes that breaking trillion in the overall market will become a normal state.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) also believes that the turnover of more than trillion will become the new normal of a shares. With the appreciation of the stock market itself and the expansion of the number and share capital of listed companies driven by IPO and refinancing in recent years, the free circulation market value of A-Shares has also increased year by year and has exceeded 40 trillion yuan. Historically, the turnover rate corresponding to the free circulation market value of A-Shares has the characteristics of mean regression. The theoretical turnover calculated by the average historical turnover rate of 2.57% has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) it is estimated that trillion yuan may be the new equilibrium level of a share turnover.
