Monthly data review: the passenger car production and sales data of November 2021 released by the passenger Federation: the retail sales volume of that month was 1.816 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.7% and a month on month increase of + 6.0%; The wholesale sales volume was 2.15 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 5.1% and a month on month increase of + 8.9%; The output was 2.229 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.1% and a month on month increase of + 13.9%.
Chip supply gradually improved, promoting the rise of production and sales in November. In November 2021, the retail sales volume of passenger cars reached 1.816 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.7% and a month on month increase of + 6.0%. Compared with the month on month increase of 4% in November in recent years, the performance was improved, mainly due to the gradual improvement of chip supply, which promoted the rise of production and sales in November.
From January to November, the total retail sales reached 18.041 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and the growth rate decreased by 2 percentage points compared with that from January to October. The production and sales of automobile enterprises have improved, but the inventory level of dealers is still low. The dealers’ recycling terminal discounts are superimposed to hoard models in the upcoming peak season, affecting the retail performance. In terms of structure, (1) the retail sales of luxury cars in November was 210000, a year-on-year increase of – 19%, an increase of 4% over the same period in 2019 and a month on month increase of 17%; (2) The retail sales of self owned brands reached 830000 units, a year-on-year increase of + 2%, a year-on-year increase of + 11% and a month-on-month increase of + 8% compared with the same period in 2019. The industry chain of the leading enterprises of self owned brands was resilient, effectively resolved the pressure of chip shortage, turned disadvantage into advantage, and achieved significant growth in the new energy market. (3) The retail sales of joint venture brands were 780000, with a year-on-year increase of – 23%, compared with – 21% in the same period in 2019 and a month on month increase of + 1%, of which the Japanese share was 22.2%, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.0pct and the American share was 9%, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.6pct. The supply of German brands is gradually improving.
The sales growth of new energy vehicles remained strong, with a retail penetration rate of 20.8% in November. In November, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 378000, with a year-on-year increase of + 122.3% and a month on month increase of + 19.8%; The wholesale sales volume was 429000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 131.7% and a month on month increase of + 17.9%. From January to November, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles was 2.807 million, a year-on-year increase of 190.2%; 2.514 million vehicles were retailed, a year-on-year increase of 178.3%.
The retail penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) in mid November was 20.8%, month on month + 2pct, and the penetration rate from January to November was 13.9%, significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. In terms of models, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 343000, a year-on-year increase of + 121.1%; The wholesale sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 85000, a year-on-year increase of + 187.2%. In terms of structure, the wholesale penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles is 33.2%, that of luxury vehicles is 24.6%, and that of mainstream joint ventures is only 3.9%. In November, the sales volume of high-end electric vehicles increased strongly, and the middle and low-end trend was strong. Among them, the A00 wholesale sales volume is 108000, accounting for 31% of the pure electric; Class A-Shares 25%, rising from the bottom; The share of class B was 26%, which remained stable.
Investment suggestions: the prosperity of independent brands continues to rise. We suggest to continue to pay attention to Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625. SZ), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633. SH / 2333. HK); The parts industry suggests paying attention to the comprehensive leader Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741. SH), the scarce subject of lighting controller Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (603786. SH), and the intelligent driving active and passive safety supplier Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) (600699. SH).
Risk tip 1. The risk of car sales not reaching the expectation; 2. Industrial chain risk caused by chip shortage.
( China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities)
