This year is the first year of "carbon neutralization" in China, and the Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) industry, regarded as one of the cleanest energy sources, will usher in development opportunities. The demand for photovoltaic terminals continued to erupt, driving the tide of industrial chain expansion, ushering in the simultaneous rise of volume and price in multiple links, and the industry as a whole entered the boom stage.
Looking back on the trend of the photovoltaic industry in the past year, after a short adjustment at the beginning of the year, the plate index rose all the way to 5988.16, an increase of nearly 70% over the beginning of the year; In the fourth quarter, plate differences intensified and the market was bumpy.
Near the end of the year, the upstream silicon chip end took the lead in initiating price reduction. On November 30 and December 16, Longtou Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) sent two price reduction letters. The silicon wafer products were reduced by 12-15% in total, causing the photovoltaic sector to plunge. In only two trading days from December 17 to 20, the sector index fell by nearly 8%.
The financial Associated Press reporter learned from the silicon material enterprises that the price reduction of silicon wafer will reverse the silicon material to a certain extent, but the details will not be known until the second half of next year.
So, after the ups and downs of 2021, what are the investment opportunities for the photovoltaic industry in 2022? What is the organization's outlook on this?
installed capacity demand is expected to rise, and the prosperity of photovoltaic industry is favored
In the overall research and judgment of the industry, many institutions believe that the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry will remain unchanged in 2022.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Cui Yifan believes that the overall price of silicon materials, including silicon wafers, is high this year, affecting the overall willingness to install. if the prices of components, silicon wafers, silicon materials and other links return to a very cost-effective level, coupled with the strong willingness of downstream terminal installation, the installation situation is likely to reach a more optimistic level next year.
China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) also made a boom analysis. Analysts predict that the global photovoltaic market is expected to usher in a big demand year in 2022 driven by the decline of raw material prices and policy support. Next year, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will be 225gw and the Chinese photovoltaic installed capacity will be 110gw.
In the long run, renewable energy will usher in a period of rapid development in the next five years, and photovoltaic is expected to play a leading role. IEA data show that the global average new installed capacity of renewable energy from 2021 to 2026 is 305gw-380gw, an increase of nearly 58% - 100% over the past five years, of which the new installed capacity of photovoltaic will account for nearly 60%.
In terms of valuation, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) believes that under the performance growth driven by the growth of industry scale and the improvement of concentration, most core targets are relatively low in the growth industry. In 2022, with the realization of enterprise performance growth and the gradual verification of the leading edge of the leader, there is still a high probability of overall valuation opportunities in the sector, and the leader is expected to gradually enjoy the valuation premium.
technology driven long-term growth of photovoltaic enterprises
From the past history, the important factor affecting the growth of photovoltaic enterprises is technology iteration. Therefore, for all links of the industrial chain, the direction of technological progress is still worth tracking.
Shanghai Securities pointed out that a new round of technology cycle is brewing in the photovoltaic industry. At the silicon material end, granular silicon is gradually formed in commercial application by using the improved Siemens method; CZZ technology has become a new direction in crystal drawing; On the battery, the conversion efficiency of perc technology is close to the bottleneck, and the n-type technology not represented by hjt technology is realizing overtaking.
Analysts suggest that focus on the layout of granular silicon, CCZ, slicing, n-type battery, mlpe and intelligent algorithm tracking support, and be optimistic about the three directions of technological progress, industry main line and downstream application.
the auxiliary material link is more deterministic
Affected by the tight supply of the main photovoltaic industry in 2021, the middle and lower reaches of photovoltaic industry are under pressure. With the release of production capacity brought by the upstream price reduction, the middle and lower reaches of photovoltaic modules and photovoltaic application products are expected to benefit the most in 2022.
Among them, photovoltaic auxiliary materials have attracted much attention, and major research reports have also raised their expectations for this link.
Guokai Securities believes that photovoltaic auxiliary materials are more deterministic than photovoltaic manufacturing industry, and the replacement demand during the operation period of superimposed photovoltaic power station continues to grow. It is suggested to focus on the inverter industry in 2022; On the other hand, the demand and market share of photovoltaic glass, photovoltaic adhesive film and other module enterprises also deserve attention.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) also mentioned the deterministic benefit of inverter and auxiliary materials: the supply of IGBT will continue to be tight in 2022, the supply chain advantage of inverter head enterprises will be maintained, and the second curve of energy storage will be increased; The adhesive film 2022h2 has upward elasticity; The pattern of glass duopoly is clear, the overall supply and demand is loose, and the large size continues to enjoy the premium; The external environment of the tracking support will be comprehensively marginal improved in 2022, with large volume / profit repair elasticity.
In addition, from the perspective of industry investment path, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) proposes to focus on two main lines:
① enterprises with strong performance , such as silicon material with supply chain bottleneck, inverter with expected profit margin, core auxiliary materials and their upstream raw materials, tracking support, etc., with specific targets of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Hemai shares, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) .
② the trend of medium and long-term pattern has improved and is expected to benefit from the excess growth brought by technological changes : leading integrated component leaders and advanced battery / component equipment manufacturers with leading new technology layout, including Jingke energy, Atlas, etc.
(Financial Associated Press)
