The price rise of lithium batteries transmitted the cost pressure. China and the United States issued a new deal to accelerate the electrification process. Affected by the cost pressure, the price of power cells increased by 10% – 15% in December, and some cell factories also began to agree to adjust the supply price of cells next year. We expect that there is still room for cell prices to rise, and we are optimistic about the profit recovery of battery enterprises after cost transmission. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued a new industry specification for lithium-ion batteries, tightening the requirements for ternary batteries and relaxing the requirements for lithium iron batteries compared with the exposure draft. On the one hand, the new specification is expected to promote the clearing of ternary low-end production capacity and consolidate the advantage of high nickel. On the other hand, it is expected to ensure the stable supply of lithium iron phosphate Market. In December, the US Environmental Protection Agency approved new fuel consumption regulations, which are tighter than the requirements of the August version. We expect that the new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain a high boom in 2022 under the policy overweight and supply optimization.
In mid November, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles increased month on month, and the sales volume in Europe rose at the end of the year: the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid November was 450000, with a year-on-year increase of + 121% and a month on month increase of + 17%; The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 20.84%, significantly higher than that of the previous month; Among the new forces of car making in China, “Wei Xiaoli” and Nezha sold more than 10000 vehicles a month. In November, the sales volume of eight Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in Europe was 178000, a month on month increase of + 20%, with a rapid growth momentum at the end of the year. In November, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) American cars was 60000, with a year-on-year increase of + 81% and a month on month increase of + 8%; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 5.6%.
Battery end: the installed capacity of iron lithium battery continues to grow, and the price of power cell rises again. In November, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery was 20.8gwh, with a month on month ratio of + 35%; The installed capacity of iron lithium battery is 11.6gwh, accounting for 55.8% in a single month. Under the hot sales of relevant models, the proportion is expected to remain high. At the beginning of December, the price of power battery cells increased by 10% – 15%. We expect that after the cost pressure continues to be transmitted, the power battery plant is expected to usher in profitable repair in 2022. With the rise of emerging consumption and the increase of monomer charging capacity, the consumer electronics lithium battery market maintained a good growth rate; In addition, the lithium electrification of electric tools and two wheeled vehicles market continues to advance. We expect the global lithium battery market to maintain stable growth.
Material side: the price rise of lithium resources drives the positive pole to rise, and most other main materials remain stable at a high level. In December, due to limited local production and rising prices of mineral resources, lithium carbonate increased by nearly 30% in a single month to 270000 yuan / ton, thus driving the prices of medium and low nickel ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate higher. Negative electrode is restricted by graphitization capacity, and the price remains stable at a high level. The prices of electrolyte and hexafluoride are stable, but some manufacturers tend to raise prices due to the delay in the production of new hexafluoride production capacity. Diaphragm production and sales are booming, and the price rose by about 5% month on month in December.
Investment suggestion: the policy & supply is continuously optimized, and we are optimistic about the improvement of the profit margin of battery price rise. The sales volume of new energy vehicles continues to be strong. We are optimistic about the leading target with good pattern and reasonable valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to: 1) some power batteries have favorable price transmission cost pressure, and the profit margin is good. It is recommended to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ; 2) Domestic replacement of lithium batteries is recommended. China’s power tool battery faucet ( Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) ) and 3C lithium battery faucet ( Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) ) are recommended; 3) Continuous shortage of supply and demand: recommended Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ; 4) Advantages of integrated layout:
Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) are recommended.
Risk tip: risk of policy change; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The production and sales of electric vehicles were less than expected.
（ Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) ）
