Since this year, the performance of the new energy sector has been quite bright. Many funds have made a lot of profits due to their heavy positions in the new energy sector, ranking at the top of the performance list. However, the new energy sector has experienced drastic adjustment recently. From the Dragon Tiger list and block trading, some hot new energy stocks are being abandoned by institutions. In the view of many people in the industry, the capital is only a short escape, not a complete departure. The long-term space of the new energy sector is still broad, but the follow-up investment opportunities need to be deeply explored.
mechanism high retreat
There are signs that the agency is retreating from some hot new energy stocks. Taking the big bull stock Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) in the lithium battery sector as an example, its share price has risen more than six times since May this year. On December 24, Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) fell to the limit. From the data of the dragon and tiger list on that day, the institutional game is quite fierce. However, the strength of the seller is greater than that of the buyer.
Specifically, the data of Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) dragon and tiger list on December 24 showed that the two institutions had a total net purchase of 111 million yuan and the other two institutions had a total net sales of 239 million yuan.
On December 24, another bull stock Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) in the lithium battery sector also fell by the limit. From the dragon and tiger list data, the institutional selling attitude is more firm. Specifically, one institution net bought 11.7 million yuan, while four of the top five seats sold were institutional seats, with a total net sales of 133 million yuan.
The previous hot Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) has fallen sharply for three consecutive trading days. According to the dragon and tiger list data on December 27, the two institutions sold a total net of 260 million yuan in the past three trading days. It is worth noting that Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) is also the "good heart" of Liu Gesong, a well-known fund manager. By the end of the third quarter, the GF industry he managed had strictly selected a number of funds such as three-year holding period mixing, GF Small Cap Growth mixing and GF science and technology pioneer mixing, which were heavily held Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) .
Some institutions sell hot new energy stocks through block trading. Take Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) as an example, on December 24, there were five block transactions in the stock. The seller's business departments were institutional seats, with a total transaction amount of 1.51 billion yuan. From the perspective of lengthening the period, since December, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) there have been 13 block transactions, and the sellers are institutions, of which only the buyers of 2 block transactions are institutions.
In the view of PanYao assets, the recent adjustment of the new energy sector is due to the short flight of funds rather than the complete departure. New energy vehicles and photovoltaic are the wind vane of the whole new energy sector. Both sectors are more in line with the preferences of the capital market in terms of fundamentals and industry prosperity. Therefore, in the past two or three years, the market performance of these two plates has been relatively extreme, but the high share price will inevitably deter investors.
"The permanent departure of funds requires two preconditions: first, the prosperity of this sector is no longer; second, there is an industry whose prosperity can comprehensively surpass this sector, and the industry is enough to accommodate the current stock funds and subsequent new funds. According to our current observation, these two conditions are not tenable." Pan Yao assets said that there are only two options for the funds to escape from the new energy sector for a short time: either wait in an empty position or look for opportunities in the direction of Pan new energy. At present, we basically choose the latter.
many star fund managers advance positions
Many funds with leading performance this year are heavily in the new energy sector. However, when the new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and other sectors suffered a sharp decline on December 24, the decline of the actual net value of some funds was less than the estimated net value, which indicates that some fund managers may have adjusted their positions, thus avoiding this round of sharp decline.
Taking Ping'an transformation and innovation hybrid a managed by shenai as an example, among the top ten heavy positions at the end of the third quarter, there were Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) and other new energy stocks. On December 24, the estimated net value of the fund decreased by 3.07%, but the actual net value of the fund decreased by only 1.35%.
Similarly, there is Xincheng emerging industry hybrid a managed by sun haozhong. As of the end of the third quarter, the fund held Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) and other new energy stocks. On December 24, the estimated net value of the fund decreased by 3.88%, and the actual net value decreased by only 2.88%.
Zhao Yi, who was famous for his heavy position in the new energy sector in the first World War, may also adjust his position. Taking the selected mixture of Agricultural Bank of China Research under its management as an example, on December 24, the estimated net value of the fund differed from the actual net value by nearly 0.8 percentage points.
A fund manager with leading performance in Shanghai this year disclosed that the position structure was fine tuned. "The new energy sector has a large short-term increase and there is pressure to digest the valuation. Recently, we are stepping up research to find more cost-effective targets. However, now is the key period for ranking at the end of the year. Most fund managers will be more cautious and will not easily smash their heavy positions."
looking for more cost-effective segments
According to the reporter's interview, most fund managers believe that the new energy industry has a broad space for long-term development, but from the perspective of stock price, the upstream resources and midstream battery manufacturing sector have been fully reflected, and it is necessary to find a subdivision track with more cost-effective advantages.
Zou Yi, general manager and investment director of Shenzhen Red chip investment, said that this year, the new energy vehicle and lithium battery sectors performed prominently, the market gave a high valuation premium to high prosperity and certainty, and the transaction structure was relatively crowded. "We believe that the prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry is highly uncertain, and it has long-term investment value after excluding the volatility risk of overvalued premium. This year, the opportunities in the industry are mainly reflected in the vehicle manufacturers and lithium battery industry chain. In the future, in the process of stabilizing the upstream material cost, increasing demand and reshaping the supply chain, the whole vehicle, vehicle electrification, intelligence and new energy transportation of the automobile industry There will still be more opportunities for business and other directions. "
The view before God's love is also similar. He believes that the stage of tight supply and demand in the new energy vehicle industry chain has passed. With the gradual release of production capacity, the industry competition pattern may intensify. The valuation of companies with good long-term competition pattern may rise significantly, so we need to pay attention to the valuation risk. However, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles is only about 10%, the industry has broad growth space, and still has good investment value on the whole. In addition, the rise in upstream prices this year has suppressed demand. With the gradual release of capacity in the middle and upper reaches, downstream demand will be met and profit elasticity will be gradually released. Next, shenai is optimistic about the investment opportunities of photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage and energy construction industry chain.
Wang Yuanyuan, star fund manager of Wells Fargo fund, is cautious. "New energy vehicles bear certain valuation pressure as a whole, so they show a high volatility trend. Although the industry trend of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other sectors is very good, the market space is large and they are in the stage of rapid growth, it will take some time to digest the valuation pressure in the short term. The sector of new energy vehicles deserves long-term attention, but this does not mean that I will ignore short-term risks."
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(Shanghai Securities News)
