On December 27, the main indexes of A-Shares maintained a volatile trend, and the transaction shrank slightly. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was less than 980 billion yuan, falling below 1 trillion yuan for the first time since October 22. Previously, the turnover exceeded 1 trillion yuan for 46 consecutive trading days.
From July to September this year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets set a record of turnover exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 49 consecutive trading days. Market participants said that on the 27th, the turnover of the two cities was less than 1 trillion yuan, which was directly related to the “smart money” northward capital. Due to the Christmas holiday, the Hong Kong stock exchange was closed on the 27th, and the trading of northbound funds was suspended.
the main reason for the suspension of trading of northbound funds is
On December 27, the Shanghai index fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.04%, and the gem index fell 0.10%. The turnover of the two markets was 974.8 billion yuan, including 407.5 billion yuan in Shanghai and 567.3 billion yuan in Shenzhen.
Data show that on October 22, Shanghai and Shenzhen markets traded a total of 1.02 trillion yuan. Since then, the daily turnover of the two markets has remained above 1 trillion yuan. On December 13, the turnover reached 1.27 trillion yuan, a new high since September 28. After December 13, the turnover of the two cities gradually shrank.
The data show that as of the closing on December 27, 146 of the 239 trading days in Shanghai and Shenzhen since 2021 had a turnover of more than 1 trillion yuan. Since May 20, the daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has remained above 800 billion yuan.
Market participants believe that the suspension of capital inflow to the north or the transaction between the two cities fell below 1 trillion yuan on the 27th. According to the announcement of the Hong Kong stock exchange, due to the Christmas holiday, Hong Kong stocks were closed all day on December 27 (Monday), so the trading of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect were temporarily suspended; It opens normally on Tuesday, December 28.
As one of the important sources of market incremental funds, northbound funds have an increasing influence on the A-share market, and its trading scale is increasing year by year. Since this year, the cumulative net purchase scale of northbound funds has reached 417.5 billion yuan, setting a new annual net purchase scale since the opening of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect in 2014. In terms of single day situation, there were four times in history that the single day net inflow scale of northward funds exceeded 20 billion yuan, of which three occurred this year, respectively on January 8 (20.615 billion yuan), May 25 (21.723 billion yuan) and December 9 (21.656 billion yuan). The net inflow scale on May 25 was the highest in history.
cautiously optimistic about the future
There are only four trading days left in 2021. For the future trend, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Chen Xianshun, chief strategic analyst of securities, expects that the sectors with overvalued and crowded transactions may face periodic adjustments.
Mou Yiling, chief strategic analyst of Minsheng securities, said in combination with the north capital trading last week that at present, the home appliance, construction, light industry and other sectors are reduced by the trading plate in the north capital, and the long-term funds represented by the north capital allocation plate are still buying these sectors. On the whole, investors have a high degree of consensus on buying the power and utility sectors, but it should be noted that the trading heat and volatility of the above sectors are also at a relatively high level in history.
Chen Guo, chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, said: “we can be cautiously optimistic about the future market. At present, the overall risk of the market is small, the overvalued sector has undergone significant adjustment, and the market liquidity and risk appetite are expected to improve at the beginning of next year.”
Chen Guo suggested to look for structural opportunities and choose opportunities to lay out sectors such as new energy infrastructure, high-end manufacturing, food and beverage, as well as the direction of industrial prosperity and consumption recovery.
(China Securities Journal)
