Looking back on Monday's A-share market, the three major stock indexes collectively opened low and fluctuated in a narrow range in the morning. With the intraday decline of the green power plate, the index plunged lower. In the afternoon, it always maintained the position of the green disk, showing a weak shock pattern all day, and the local profit-making effect is general.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the index continues to fluctuate, and the trend has not changed much. In terms of operation, it is still recommended to participate carefully in the end of the year, especially for the adjustment of high-level varieties. The short-term is mainly low-level and high-volume varieties with ambush layout, and the medium and long-term can be considered after the adjustment of new energy is in place. In addition, consumer stocks can also pay appropriate attention to the adjustment.
Technically, Dongguan Securities said that the index fluctuated weakly on Monday, the volume of the two cities could shrink significantly, and the trading volume was less than trillion yuan, reflecting the weak trading willingness at the end of the year. At the end of the year, the high-low switching of plates was obvious, and large cap stocks and low-level blue chips were repaired. with the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, the market is expected to strengthen in repeated shocks. Pay attention to the change of volume energy and plate rotation . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, medicine and biology, household appliances, building materials and other industries.
For the future, Guosheng Securities pointed out that the medium and long-term upward trend of current index remains unchanged, but the capital demand increases at the end of the year, and the market sentiment is more cautious. The short-term index may face some adjustment pressure . Plate rotation is frequent and difficult to operate. In the near future, we should be cautious and watch more and move less. In the early stage, the hot track chip, photovoltaic, lithium battery and other sectors face certain adjustment pressure in the short term. Defensive medicine and consumption sectors with funds for hedging needs may have phased opportunities. At the same time, pay close attention to the working meetings of various government departments at the end of the year and the introduction of relevant industrial policies. select industries supported by policies and wait for market opportunities .
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) believes that although the market fluctuates, the market in the first quarter of next year is still . On the one hand, the US monetary policy has not yet entered the interest rate increase cycle. On the other hand, in the opening year of next year, China's stable growth policy is expected to be strong, and both value stocks and growth stocks have investment opportunities. From the perspective of allocation, we still adhere to the "scientific and technological power", "consumption recovery" and "double carbon strategy" in the annual strategy report.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that is not afraid of adjustment, and pays attention to the main line layout opportunities for growth next year . We believe that the recent market adjustment of overseas fluctuations is the main reason, and there is no room for A-Shares to continue to fall. With the gradual stabilization of China's credit cycle, the valuation of A-Shares will be given a favorable boost. Therefore, overseas fluctuations have more periodic impact on a shares. We need to pay attention to the choice and layout of market direction next year.
The agency further analyzed that considering the characteristics of upward cycle prosperity of capital expenditure and loose short cycle recession, the high boom growth direction and TMT technology are still the main layout line: 1) high growth track stocks represented by Ning portfolio , after the active correction, the valuation switching investment cost performance in 2022 is high. Focus on investment opportunities in new energy lithium batteries, photovoltaic materials, equipment and other sectors. 2) the near-end performance growth of TMT communication and electronic hardware is relatively certain . The industry valuation is at a low and middle position in history. It is recommended to pay attention to some sub circuit intelligent driving, lidar and power semiconductor after correction. Media content and computer software pay more attention to the high odds space brought by liquidity.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) also said that in the short term, A-Shares are ready for the new year and ready for the restless market at the beginning of the year . Since December, the monetary policy of western countries led by the United States has been tightened, superimposed with the spread of mutant strains, and the global market has fluctuated to a certain extent; At the same time, under the warming of institutional capital game at the end of the year, the rotation of A-share plate intensified. The trend of China's foreign policies is different. In the warm period of the "stable growth" policy, the monetary policy will be more active and promising in the next stage, the market liquidity will remain abundant, the credit supply is expected to accelerate at the beginning of the year, and the probability of MLF interest rate reduction is also increasing. In the environment of market shock, bargain hunting can be arranged in the restless direction in spring, biased towards consumption growth.
Macroscopically, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the central economic work conference held in the early stage released a more positive policy attitude, and the recent measures such as the central bank's LPR reduction also sent a clear easing signal. Combined with the above environment, we believe that although the recent performance of the market is slightly depressed, we don't have to be too pessimistic . From historical experience, the market tends to gradually turn positive in the period of more clear policy implementation or significant improvement of forward-looking indicators. The agency believes that the short-term "stable growth" policy is expected to be gradually implemented in the future. In the medium term, the cycle of growth and policies at home and abroad will be reversed again in 2022, with valuation and liquidity support, industrial upgrading and other structural trends expected to support market performance.
In terms of operation strategy, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) suggests that closely follow the two main lines of the implementation of stable growth policy and the recovery of consumption price, and firmly focus on the "three low points" for the cross-year layout of blue chip varieties .
Focus: first, is expected to remain low in the . It focuses on the manufacturing of mid stream products, such as auto parts and power equipment, which are suppressed by cost and supply chain problems, and gradually increases the partial cost and reasonable value of the valuation to the pharmaceutical industry, such as Baijiu, food, vaccines, etc.
Second, the variety whose valuation is still relatively low, pays attention to the high-quality developers and building materials enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, as well as the Internet leader of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of China concept stocks.
Third, high boom varieties with relatively low stock price after adjustment , such as semiconductor equipment driven by localization logic, special chip devices and military industry.
In addition, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) mentioned that the current cross year market is not over, the market logic is still established, and continues to be fulfilled and strengthened. Therefore, hold the bumps and beat the short with the long, and the cross-year market is not finished to be continued.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, the agency further analyzed that in the short term, on the one hand, it grasped the phased opportunities for the repair of undervalued state-owned real estate enterprises and securities companies , on the other hand, it laid out "small high tech" with long playing short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focuses on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation . 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the pharmaceutical sector is expected to usher in a better market in 2022. First, under the "domestic substitution", pharmaceutical equipment and consumables are expected to usher in a period of development opportunities; Second, the strong demand for downstream replenishment and the frequent positive policies are expected to drive the continuous agitation of the traditional Chinese medicine sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the head targets with strong bargaining power under the logic of "consumption upgrading"; Third, under the "normalization" prevention and control of the epidemic situation, covid-19 vaccine and detection may be more deterministic than specific drugs.
