Today (December 28), the three major A-share indexes opened high across the board, weakened rapidly after shock consolidation at the beginning of the session, and then the stock index differentiation pattern was obvious. The Shanghai index maintained a narrow shock in the green disk. With the outbreak of some subject stocks, the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index performed relatively strongly. From the disk point of view, the Chinese medicine stocks that have soared recently are facing a correction, lithium batteries are on the stage, technology stocks are singing, intelligent manufacturing, network security, digital currency and other sectors are outstanding, and the local profit-making effect is rising sharply.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the medium and long-term upward trend of the current index remains unchanged, but the capital demand increases at the end of the year. At the same time, the market sentiment is more cautious, and the short-term index may face some adjustment pressure. Plate rotation is frequent and difficult to operate. In the near future, we should be cautious and watch more and move less.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[topic I] intelligent manufacturing
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) it was mentioned earlier that under the current general trend of the disappearance of labor demographic dividend and the imminent transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, there is no way out for extensive growth mode and simple model innovation. Enterprises must innovate internally and upward. Hard core information technology has become the key to improving quality, reducing cost and increasing efficiency. Taking the industrial vision industry as an example, using machine vision to replace and improve human's ability to collect and process image information has released great value of improving quality, reducing cost and increasing efficiency in the manufacturing fields of automobile, semiconductor, new energy, photovoltaic and so on; Hard core AI / software technology accounts for more than 35% of the value of machine vision system, which is the key to the improvement of value and horizontal expansion of the industry in the future.
The agency further said that hard core information technology and the combination of software and hardware are two major scientific and technological investment opportunities for intelligent manufacturing. Hard core information technology represented by industrial software and artificial intelligence is not only the key to breaking through the "neck" field, but also the use of China's industrial scale advantage and broad application market, It is one of the important standards to test the quality of current intelligent manufacturing investment. On the other hand, we note that more and more listed companies are aware of the necessity and value of the combination of software and hardware, and actively layout relevant fields. Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) the top of the strategic layout is sinking, taking into account industrial software and instruments; Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) take hardware standardization and software customization as the future development direction; Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) release large PLC products on the basis of traditional software business and open up the upper and lower industrial chain.
Cinda Securities pointed out that the intelligent transformation of enterprises is the general trend. According to the data statistics of the white paper on lighthouse factory leading the digital transformation of manufacturing industry, it is expected that more than 57% of enterprises will focus on digital and intelligent transformation in five years, and more than 45% of enterprises have invested more than 100 million yuan in the construction of intelligent factories, 12% of enterprises invested more than 1 billion yuan in the construction of intelligent factories. The wave of enterprise digital intelligence transformation is expected to accelerate the development of intelligent manufacturing, 5g and cloud industry chains. []
[Topic 2] network security
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that according to the prediction of Yuanqi capital, there will be three major changes in data security products in the future: 1) from focusing on the system to entering the system; 2) From action monitoring to process management; 3) From static control to dynamic control. Data security governance may uniformly sort out and control data in different scenarios in the form of data security governance platform. Looking forward to the future, we are optimistic about the potential incremental space of the data security governance platform and its pulling effect on the demand for traditional data security products. At the same time, we also expect data security governance to promote the further evolution of the security industry to the service-oriented and SaaS model.
Looking to the future, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) mentioned that the triple factors drive the industry to continue to grow at a high speed. 1) Network security has risen to the national strategy, and the policy needs build the industry's basic plate: equal insurance, reinsurance, information creation, data security, etc., so as to comprehensively improve the network security level of various industries. 2) Practical needs improve industry concentration: comprehensive solution providers are more popular, and subscription security services have become a hot spot in the industry. The national team of network security is growing day by day, and the endogenous + epitaxial (M & A in the industry) development is expected to become a new development model of the head company. 3) New technologies and scenarios give birth to new demands for network security: new technologies and concepts such as cloud security, industrial control security, zero trust and situational awareness lead the industry to change and promote the long-term development of the industry.
According to IDC's prediction, the investment scale of China's network security market will reach US $9.78 billion in 2021 and is expected to increase to US $18.79 billion in 2025, with a five-year CAGR of about 17.9%. The triple factors drive the rapid growth of the industry. In recent years, the market concentration has been continuously improved and the survival of the fittest has been further strengthened. []
[Topic 3] lithium battery
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that lithium prices continued to rise recently, while the performance of the secondary market was weak. In the retrospect of the last lithium price cycle, the stock price and fundamentals also deviated in the last cycle, and the performance realization is more critical. At the same time, the market is worried that the lithium sector is still biased towards the cyclical attribute, the high price is difficult to maintain, and the cyclical high profit cannot be valued.
The agency further analyzed that as the demand for new energy industry continues to improve next year, the lithium price center will maintain a high boom in 2022. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually forms consistent expectations for the price, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise's expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the long-term of lithium plate is "volume" rather than "price". In the dark moment, we are still firmly optimistic about the configuration value of lithium plate next year.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium resources has intensified, the lithium price has accelerated upward, the lithium price center has maintained a high level, and the plate value has become prominent. At the supply side, the production of salt lakes is reduced seasonally, the release of smelting capacity is also subject to ore, and there is little increase in global supply in the medium and short term; However, the demand side lithium battery production has increased month by month. Battery factories and midstream material factories prepared goods years ago. At the same time, the midstream and downstream expanded production and scale, amplifying the demand for the upstream; The inventory of all parties in the industry is low, the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, the spot price accelerates, the contract price of large manufacturers rises month by month, the price of individual orders jumps, and the lithium price center remains high with the support of supply and demand. []
[Topic 4] digital currency
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that the digital RMB is positioned in the legal currency, and the corresponding social supporting facilities need to be upgraded and transformed into rigid. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: with the acceleration of the promotion of digital currency and the approach of the time point of full implementation, various preparations and infrastructure upgrading will be gradually accelerated, and companies in relevant industrial chains will usher in the opportunity of accelerating development, It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines.
The first main line suggests paying attention to the payment hardware market. The promotion of digital currency and the implementation of barcode payment supervision and other policies will drive the iterative upgrading of payment hardware, and the suppliers of intelligent payment equipment at the receiving end and physical hardware wallet at the paying end will benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to Xgd Inc(300130) , Urovo Technology Co.Ltd(300531) , Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) , Wuhan Tianyu Information Industry Co.Ltd(300205) , Chutian Dragon Co.Ltd(003040) , etc.
The second main line suggests paying attention to the bank it upgrading and transformation market. Banks play a great role in the issuance and trading of digital RMB. Due to their legal currency positioning, banks need to upgrade their systems to meet the trading needs of digital currency in the future. There is a huge market space for bank it transformation. It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Tansun Technology Co.Ltd(300872) , Guangzhou Kingteller Technology Co.Ltd(002177) , Chase Science Co.Ltd(300941) , Client Service International Inc(300663) , Jiangsu Hoperun Software Co.Ltd(300339) .
The third main line suggests paying attention to the promotion and scenario service companies serving digital RMB. Specifically, third-party payment services and acquiring companies will also benefit from the implementation of digital currency. It is suggested to pay attention to Lakala Payment Co.Ltd(300773) , Xgd Inc(300130) and Hyunion Holding Co.Ltd(002537) .
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) mentioned that blockchain is the preferred technology for central banks' digital currency. With the help of blockchain technology, CBDC (central bank digital currencies) can incubate a variety of advantages. Blockchain technology comes from bitcoin, and central banks are mainly cautious and exclusive of cryptocurrencies represented by bitcoin. Although the decentralization of blockchain technology conflicts with the centralized management of the central bank, blockchain technology can still be effectively used in the relevant development and management links of CBDC. We believe that CBDC can help the central bank to improve the competitiveness of its legal currency, suppress the circulation of cryptocurrency and improve the central bank's financial control ability. With the help of the blockchain technology of cryptocurrency, CBDC improves its ability to prevent crime and promote inclusive finance, so as to ensure the central bank's ability to control money in the digital age. []
