With the approaching of new year’s day and Spring Festival, the market has added a hope to the Baijiu industry. China Securities Journal, China Certification Taurus reporter learned that the Baijiu market is still in the off-season, and new year’s day has not yet formed a demand for Baijiu, but dealers are more consistent with the expectation of the Spring Festival. For Baijiu brands that have already increased in price, dealers expect to digest in 1-2 months, and the overall completion degree may be higher.
dealers look forward to the “Spring Festival market”
On December 27, the Taurus reporter of China Securities Journal consulted dealers in Sichuan, Nanjing, Hefei and other regions, and got a more consistent answer: keep optimistic expectations for the “Spring Festival market”.
It is worth mentioning that the Baijiu is still in the stocking stage of the Spring Festival, and the liquor market is still in the off-season. Dealers said that Baijiu inventory generally digest, business is also relatively dull, the market segment did not exceed the previous year.
In addition, dealers said that although the new year’s Day approaching, but the Baijiu market has not yet significantly increased the heat. However, according to the market performance in the past years, Baijiu sales market is usually shown at the time of the Chinese New Year approaching to the beginning of this year.
According to China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities Research Report, due to the early spring festival next year and the relatively early operation time of wineries and channels, Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and other enterprises have begun to collect money in the first quarter of next year. Due to the epidemic situation in some regions, the market situation of regional wine in the first quarter will be carefully tracked.
Many dealers told reporters that the Baijiu liquor sold at the middle and end price is better. In addition, with the rising trend of famous Baijiu liquor, due to the consumer budget and other reasons, it may also facilitate the second line brands and local brands to usher in some incremental customers during the peak season.
many wine companies adjust prices before the peak season
Since December, the price of Baijiu market is expected to rise. At present, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) price increases have been relatively clear, and dealers also sigh: “price increases are the trend.” At the same time, Maotai pushed back the dealers’ payment time, and the market has been paying close attention to whether Maotai has the action of raising the factory price.
On December 15, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) issued a notice to many regions to increase the planned quota supply price of 52 degree national cellar 1573 classic packaging terminal channel by 70 yuan / bottle and the unplanned quota supply price to 1080 yuan.
In addition, dealers of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) successively make payments in the whole year or spring peak season of 2022 according to the weighted price of 969 yuan. Dealers told reporters that liquor enterprises have a strong voice, and the influencing factors of sales, inventory, personnel and capital flow are relatively weak. After that, dealers may have 2-3 months to digest the price increase.
Although the price of head Baijiu enterprises has been rising, Moutai’s action to raise the factory price has not yet been formed. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) on December 26, the research report said that Maotai has notified the spring festival goods preparation and payment this week, and is expected to complete about 25% of the annual quota, and the price has not been notified yet.
In fact, many securities companies have also analyzed that Maotai has a variety of ways to thicken profits, which may be more optimized than directly increasing the ex factory price. For example, Maotai actively carries out investment attraction for supermarkets, implements e-commerce quota plan and arranges marketing channels, which will promote the marketization of Maotai’s price system. With the increase of the proportion of direct sales, Maotai’s revenue and profit composition will also change.
The price of Maotai has been rising for many days. Taking the annual output of bulk 53 degree flying Maotai in 2021 as an example, the wholesale price stabilized and rebounded in mid December. On December 15, each bottle rose slightly by 5 yuan, and the quotation was 2685 yuan / bottle. Then it entered the shock upward stage, and the rated price on December 27 was 2780 yuan.
For China Baijiu Baijiu, China’s liquor industry association, Song Shuyu, director of the China Liquor Association, said that the market expectations for Baijiu new year should be better, and that the opportunity for famous liquor is better in the long run.
The dealers said that after the Spring Festival, the market may be a bit weak, because Baijiu dealers do more activities, the circulation of products in the market will increase.
(China Securities Journal)
