Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. in the short term, after a short pause, the northward capital returned, ending the outflow trend under the previous bad situation and ushering in a continuous net inflow. In addition, with the start of the monetary easing cycle, the overall good support and boost of the market are strengthened again. Sorting or gaining momentum, bargain hunting is still a good time for additional allocation.
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both opened higher and fluctuated after the opening, then both fell lower and fell for a time. However, with the relative strength of subject stocks, the gem and Shenzhen Composite Index performed well. In the afternoon, the brokerage sector began to perform, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) rose one after another, the index bottomed out and rebounded, and continued to rise after turning red smoothly. On the disk, household appliances and non-ferrous metals rose sharply, while power equipment, basic chemicals, computers and communications led the rise, while coal led the decline, while utilities, building decoration and building materials fell.
The decline of the market since December 13, on the one hand, is the flight of short-term funds after the continuous rise of the index, on the other hand, it is also the impact of fluctuations in overseas markets. At the same time, the impact of China’s supervision on fake foreign capital has jointly created the withdrawal of the index. Near the end of the year, with the overall caution of funds, the market performance is relatively weak. However, at present, the market is basically stable, liquidity is stable, the balance of steady growth and the opening of the monetary easing cycle make the market trend for the better relatively obvious.
Back in the market, although the short-term transaction has broken the situation that the transaction has exceeded trillion in a row, today the transaction has returned to trillion again. The overall mood of the market is good. In the process of plate rotation, the undervalued varieties led by blue chips have an eye-catching performance, which is significantly stronger than the high-level growth stocks. This also reflects the style differentiation of the current market.
This is not only reflected in the disk, but also in the data of northward funds. Since the regulatory crackdown on fake foreign capital, the northward capital has been a continuous net inflow, and recently began to return, ushering in a continuous net inflow. According to previous data statistics, the net inflow of northbound funds from December 6 to 10 showed that the cumulative inflow of consumption was 17.76 billion yuan and the net inflow of steady growth sector was 14.26 billion yuan, accounting for 36.4% and 29.2% of the total inflow respectively. In this regard, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that this data is in sharp contrast to the previous northward capital flow – previously, northward capital had a significant preference for the growth sector, and its proportion of capital inflow ranked first among all sectors, while the inflow of consumption sector was relatively small. Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) also mentioned that the style of northward capital has changed recently, especially the significant purchase of value sectors including food and beverage, non bank finance and banks.
We believe that the core of the style change of disk and northward capital lies in the expectation and favor of stable sectors and varieties under the setting tone of the “stable growth” policy, with the central bank’s RRR reduction and LPR reduction, and the opening of the monetary easing cycle. In this process, the overall situation presented by the market is that undervalued blue chips are obviously better than growth stocks.
To sum up: with the policy of steady growth, we continue to be optimistic about the market in the next year and the first quarter of next year. In this process, with the opening of the easing cycle, the overall recovery opportunity of undervalued blue chips deserves attention. In the short term, the market ushers in consolidation, but there is no substantive bad. Instead, consolidation is a good time to bargain hunting, and investors can still consider bargain hunting for appropriate allocation. In terms of specific opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as financial and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, science and technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
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(Jufeng Finance)
