Today (December 28), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets came out of the tail raising market. The three A-share indexes opened high and went low in the morning, and then remained volatile near yesterday's closing price. The pattern of Shanghai weak and Shenzhen strong was obvious. With the further strengthening of subject stocks, the stock index gradually stabilized and rose in the afternoon. Finally, the three indexes turned red across the board, of which the gem index rebounded by more than 1%.
In this regard, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that in the short term, A-Shares are ready for the new year and are ready for the restless market at the beginning of the year. Since December, the monetary policy of western countries led by the United States has been tightened, superimposed with the spread of mutant strains, and the global market has fluctuated to a certain extent; At the same time, under the warming of institutional capital game at the end of the year, the rotation of A-share plate intensified.
At the same time, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) mentioned focusing on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
plate:
I. lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that lithium prices continued to rise recently, while the performance of the secondary market was weak. In the retrospect of the last lithium price cycle, the stock price and fundamentals also deviated in the last cycle, and the performance realization is more critical. At the same time, the market is worried that the lithium sector is still biased towards the cyclical attribute, the high price is difficult to maintain, and the cyclical high profit cannot be valued.
The agency further analyzed that as the demand for new energy industry continues to improve next year, the lithium price center will maintain a high boom in 2022. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually forms consistent expectations for the price, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise's expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the long-term of lithium plate is "volume" rather than "price". In the dark moment, we are still firmly optimistic about the configuration value of lithium plate next year.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium resources has intensified, the lithium price has accelerated upward, the lithium price center has maintained a high level, and the plate value has become prominent. At the supply side, the production of salt lakes is reduced seasonally, the release of smelting capacity is also subject to ore, and there is little increase in global supply in the medium and short term; However, the demand side lithium battery production has increased month by month. Battery factories and midstream material factories prepared goods years ago. At the same time, the midstream and downstream expanded production and scale, amplifying the demand for the upstream; The inventory of all parties in the industry is low, the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, the spot price accelerates, the contract price of large manufacturers rises month by month, the price of individual orders jumps, and the lithium price center remains high with the support of supply and demand.
In terms of investment suggestions, focus on the leading industry segments with global competitiveness and high growth tracks represented by lithium iron phosphate and high nickel: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the links and companies that are still tight in supply and demand, can obtain excess profits of the industrial chain and continue to expand: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) .
2、 new energy vehicle
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that new energy has strong long-term certainty and focuses on core parts with leading technology. The promotion of subsidy policy, double credit policy, online car Hailing to power transfer, traffic restriction and purchase restriction and other relevant policies will promote the growth of demand for new energy vehicles from the consumer side and the manufacturing side. At the same time, from the technical side, new energy vehicles can meet the travel needs of most people, and the price continues to drop, which has a certain cost performance. It is expected to gradually replace the fuel vehicle market. It is suggested to find high-quality targets from power battery parts enterprises with extensive enterprise cooperation and leading technology.
China's macroeconomic stability has recovered. China's automobile market is in the transition stage from the initial stage of popularization to the later stage of popularization. New car sales have gradually shifted from the incremental market to the stock market, and automobile exports have exceeded expectations. At present, the technology of new energy vehicles is gradually mature, and intellectualization gives new energy vehicles more premium space. Compared with fuel vehicles, the price of new energy has a certain cost performance, the industry space has been greatly improved, and there are many structural investment opportunities in the industrial chain. Stock selection suggestions for the automotive industry: 1. Focus on the vehicle leader with continuous leading market share and perfect product matrix; 2. Focus on new energy vehicles and vehicle intelligence, start with the high-quality industrial chain, look for high-quality targets from top to bottom, and pay attention to Tesla industrial chain and lithium battery industrial chain.
In addition, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that since 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles have continued to grow rapidly. We estimate that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2021 and 2022 will be 13% and 19% respectively, and the corresponding sales volume will be 3.5 million units and 5.3 million units respectively. It is suggested to pay attention to the incremental parts with "three electricity" as the core, as well as the upgrading track of vehicle lightweight and thermal management: ① battery field: [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by new electricity group), Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) ], etc; ② Motor electric control field: [ Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (covered by the new electric group)]; ③ Automobile lightweight: [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , AGCO, Zhejiang Jingu Company Limited(002488) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ]; ④ Automobile thermal management: [ Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ].
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