Today (December 28), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board and began to fluctuate at the beginning of the session, and then both fell, especially the accelerated diving of the Shanghai index. With the relative strength of subject stocks, the gem index and Shenzhen composite index were more resistant to decline; In the afternoon, after the index bottomed out and turned red smoothly, the stock index continued to rise in the late afternoon.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index rose 0.39% to 3630.11 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83% to 14837.87 points; The gem index rose 1.06% to 3328.56 points.
From the disk point of view, the overall trend of the market remains unchanged, and the industry and concept plates rotate and speed up. In terms of industries, energy metals, software development, Internet services and other industries led the increase; In terms of theme stocks, salt lake lithium, digital currency and industrial machine tools led the rise.
In terms of capital, the people's Bank of China announced on December 28 that in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the year, the people's Bank of China launched a reverse repurchase operation of 200 billion yuan by means of interest rate bidding on December 28, 2021. The bid winning interest rate is 2.20%. Today, 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, so a net investment of 190 billion yuan in a single day.
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1. According to the CCTV news client, eight departments including the Ministry of industry and information technology jointly issued the intelligent manufacturing development plan for the 14th five year plan on December 28. The reporter noted that the "14th five year plan" for intelligent manufacturing development proposed that by 2025, most manufacturing enterprises above Designated Size will realize digitization and networking, and key enterprises in key industries will initially apply intellectualization; By 2035, manufacturing enterprises above Designated Size will fully popularize digital networking, and backbone enterprises in key industries will basically realize intellectualization.
2. According to the news client of CCTV, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other 15th departments jointly issued the "14th five year plan" Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) Industrial Development Plan "on December 28. The reporter learned that the "14th five year plan" Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial development plan proposes that by 2025, China will become the source of global Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) technological innovation, high-end manufacturing agglomeration and a new highland of integrated application. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, breakthroughs will be made in a number of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) core technologies and high-end products, the comprehensive indicators of the whole machine will reach the international advanced level, and the performance and reliability of key parts will reach the international level of similar products; The average annual growth rate of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial operating revenue exceeds 20%; Form a number of leading enterprises with international competitiveness and a large number of specialized and new "little giant" enterprises with strong innovation ability and good growth, and build three to five industrial clusters with international influence; Manufacturing Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) density doubled.
3. According to China Central Television Network, the "14th five year plan" for the development of medical equipment industry was released on the morning of December 28. The plan proposes to strive to significantly improve the level of advanced foundation and industrial chain modernization of medical equipment industry, basically realize effective supply of mainstream medical equipment, and significantly improve the performance and quality of high-end medical equipment products by 2025, Initially form a comprehensive support capacity for public health and medical health needs. According to Wang Weiming, director of the first Department of equipment industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology, this plan is the first national industrial development plan in the field of medical equipment. It will focus on seven key areas, such as diagnostic and testing equipment, treatment equipment, monitoring and life support equipment, traditional Chinese medicine diagnosis and treatment equipment, maternal and child health equipment, health care and rehabilitation equipment and active implant intervention equipment.
4. According to the China Securities Journal, on December 27, the central network security and Information Technology Commission issued the National Informatization Plan for the 14th five year plan, which made arrangements for China's informatization development during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The plan puts forward the overall development goal of national informatization during the 14th Five Year Plan period. By 2025, the construction of Digital China will make decisive progress, the development level of informatization will rise sharply, the digital infrastructure will be consolidated in an all-round way, the ability of digital technology innovation will be significantly enhanced, the value of data elements will be brought into full play, the digital economy will develop in high quality, and the overall efficiency of digital governance will be improved. Focusing on the development objectives, the plan has deployed 10 major tasks, focusing on the appropriate and advanced deployment of the next generation of intelligent facility system, unblocking the financing channels of wechat enterprises, and building a digital industry cluster with international competitiveness.
institutional view
For the current market, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) believes that although the market fluctuates, the market in the first quarter of next year can still be expected. On the one hand, the US monetary policy has not yet entered the interest rate increase cycle. On the other hand, in the opening year of next year, China's stable growth policy is expected to be strong, and both value stocks and growth stocks have investment opportunities. From the perspective of allocation, we still adhere to the "scientific and technological power", "consumption recovery" and "double carbon strategy" in the annual strategy report.
Bohai Securities pointed out that reviewing the performance of A-Shares at the end of the year and the beginning of the year over the years, if there is no impact of special events, the market will open a "cross year market" under the influence of factors such as capital, policy and performance. In terms of profit-making effect, the market profit-making effect gradually rises after the Spring Festival, and with the accumulation of profit chips, the market risk is also gradually rising. Generally speaking, in the current performance vacuum period, the pessimistic expectations at the performance end are expected to be revised upward under the protection of policies, and the capital risk appetite is expected to remain relatively high. At the same time, the liquidity tends to be loose in stability, and the policy tone is "stable". The "cross year market" in 2022 is expected to develop, and investors can actively participate. However, in the restless process of the following spring, we need to pay attention to the grasp of the rhythm and be vigilant against the fluctuation risk brought by the periodic exchange of funds.
In terms of style, the agency further said that after the Spring Festival over the years, the market style will generally be dominated by small and medium-sized stocks; In the years with small and medium-sized stocks as the main line before the Spring Festival, the style of small and medium-sized stocks will continue after the Spring Festival. Considering that the current market style is dominated by small and medium-sized stocks, and from the performance side, the performance of small and medium-sized stocks represented by China Securities 500 in the third quarter is superior to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At the same time, on the valuation side, the current valuation level of China Securities 500 is below the average level since 2015, the valuation is not expensive and the performance is acceptable, so the market of small and medium-sized stocks is expected to continue.
Based on the retrospect of the performance of various industries in the past cross-year market, Bohai Securities also mentioned that industries with greater marginal improvement in the first quarter report are more likely to obtain relative income, and industries with less obvious improvement in the fourth quarter report are more likely to obtain the layout of funds. We compare the analysts' net profit forecast for the annual report of 2021 with the third quarterly report, focus on the industries with the lowest marginal improvement, and observe the possibility of taking off in the first quarter of 2022 after "squatting" in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the process of cross year market, we can focus on steel, real estate industry chain including building materials and architectural decoration, big finance including banks and securities companies, and consumer sectors including household appliances, medicine and biology, food and beverage and leisure services.
Wanhe Securities believes that the risk of A-share investment in 2022 is greater than the opportunity. It is recommended that investors reduce their income expectations and actively look for structural opportunities. In terms of timing, in the second half of 2022, when the external fed ends its table expansion, interest rate hike and other uncertain factors, if China's economy shows signs of improvement, A-Shares will begin to usher in a new round of medium and long-term investment opportunities.
Aijian Securities said that consumption, carbon reduction and scientific and technological growth are the main opportunities in 2022. The autonomy and controllability of agriculture and industry will promote the development of the industry, and we can pay attention to the structural opportunities for beneficial development. The main investment ideas are: the return of the consumer industry. The decline of economic growth will restrain the consumer industry, and it is expected to rebound in 2022 driven by the internal circulation policy. In addition to the traditional consumption of food, beverage and household appliances, the rebound after the pressure of industries such as culture and media, education, medicine and leisure services deserves special attention. Strong long-term driving force for carbon reduction. Carbon reduction is a long-term process, and the promotion of the industry is also a long-term process. New energy, energy conservation and environmental protection will benefit from the promotion of carbon reduction process. Carbon peak and carbon neutralization will be able to promote both old and new industries. Excavation of technology growth companies. As a pillar industry in the future, most emerging industries are science and technology growth companies, which are long-term industries worthy of attention. However, the short-term defect is that the performance is difficult to keep up with the valuation, so the stock price fluctuates greatly. However, the adjustment is a good time to enter, which deserves attention.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) pointed out that it is expected that the market is expected to start a new round of rising market in the first quarter of next year under the stimulation of updated performance outlook and relaxed policies. From the perspective of investment strategy, we think there are two major directions to focus on, mainly high growth plate and dilemma reversal plate. First, continue to focus on the manufacturing industry and high prosperity track. Including military industry, new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, new energy, energy systems, etc.), semiconductors, the Internet of things, etc. these sectors have long-term logic and will maintain high growth for a long time in the future. When the market starts a new performance expectation in the first quarter of next year, it is expected that the relevant sectors will usher in a new round of upward period. The second is the dilemma reversal track. Including business tourism, pig cycle, shipbuilding, innovative medicine and other sectors. These sectors are currently at the bottom of the cycle. At the most difficult time, the stock price also reflects these difficulties to a considerable extent. Once the cycle goes up, the stock price is full of elasticity. In addition, we can also pay attention to some industrial security fields, such as information security, seed industry security, etc; The industrial cycle began to move upward, such as consumer electronics.
