Recently, according to the content released by Centaline’s Hong Kong office, Huang Liangsheng, senior co director of Centaline’s research department, pointed out that in January 2022, there were 528 sales contracts and 8.114 billion yuan, down 0.4% and 77.7% month on month respectively compared with 530 contracts and 36.444 billion yuan in December 2021. The turnover of shops and office buildings in Hong Kong hit a new low.
The reporter of Huaxia times learned from a number of Hong Kong residents that recently, many noisy shopping malls in the past closed early every day. Even with the introduction of large discounts, the passenger flow is still less than half of the usual.
UBS also said in the research report released recently that the overall real estate environment in Hong Kong has been affected recently, and the passenger flow of shopping malls will further decline by about 35%. However, industry experts also said that if the epidemic can be reasonably controlled, Hong Kong’s business is still expected to have a good prospect in 2022.
in 1, the trading amount of shops in Hong Kong hit a new low in March
According to Huang Liangsheng, the trading volume of shops in Hong Kong recorded 139 cases and 3.122 billion yuan in January 2022, the lowest in three months after reaching 3.010 billion yuan in October 2021. The data show that although the trading volume increased slightly by 0.7% in January compared with 138 cases in December 2021, the trading amount decreased slightly by 0.5% compared with 3.138 billion yuan in December.
Not only shops, but also the transaction amount of office buildings is in the doldrums. According to the data, 68 office buildings and 618 million yuan were recorded in January, down 19.0% and 98.0% respectively compared with December 2021. The number of transactions reached a new low in 11 months after 56 in February 2021, and the amount reached a new low in 18 months after 582 million yuan in July 2020. For the reason, Huang Liangsheng introduced that it was mainly due to the decrease of high price registration in January.
After consulting the latest data in February, the reporter of Huaxia times found that the overall downturn continued.
According to the latest data of Meilian property, the registration volume of shops and properties in Hong Kong decreased significantly in the first 17 days of February. Specifically, the registration volume of industrial buildings, shops, pure parking spaces and other properties decreased on a monthly basis. Among them, shops and industrial buildings decreased by about 27.4% and 22.2% respectively on a monthly basis, with 53 and 140 registrations, and the number of pure parking spaces and other properties also decreased by about 6.7%, with 322 registrations.
In an interview with Huaxia times, Meilian industrial and commercial store also said that according to the commercial building express report issued by the data research department of Meilian industrial and commercial store, under the epidemic, many offices have changed their operation mode to work at home, and enterprises slow down the pace of renting office buildings, which still has an impact on short-term office leasing activities, In addition, the overall vacancy rate of building a is still at a high level, which has a wide impact on Commerce in the short term.
In addition, combined with the current situation, Huang Liangsheng predicts that the business registration of industrial and commercial shops will be affected in February.
increase in sublease and closure of commercial street
In an interview with Huaxia times, Mr. Bo, a film worker in Hong Kong, said that at present, he basically works at home and occasionally goes out to shoot some film materials, but he can clearly feel that there are many fewer people on the road than in the past.
Mr. Bo in Causeway Bay Area told reporters, “the hall food of catering has been cancelled, and the barber shops and retail stores have been basically closed, which still has an impact on life.” Mr. Bo said.
Vincent (pseudonym), who lives in Tuen Mun District, New Territories, Hong Kong, told the China times that his daily work has been arranged to be completed at home. According to Vincent, due to the cancellation of Hall Food and the closure of some catering stores, they are also reducing access as much as possible after home office.
In fact, the reporter of Huaxia times also found that some shops in Hong Kong’s commercial streets were sublet or closed down.
“In order to attract passenger flow, some discounts are still very strong.” In an interview with the China times, Vincent said that except for central and Tsim Sha Tsui, nearly 80% of the stores were closed after 8 o’clock. “Gyms, KTVs and other entertainment places have been closed.”
According to Mr. Bo, it is common for shops near his residence to close, and many shops are sublet or closed. “There are basically no guests in the store, and my friend’s shops close around 8 p.m.” Mr. Bo told reporters.
As the nature of work is related to business, Vincent also revealed to reporters that what he learned is that the rental rate of shops has declined greatly. Some shops in Tsim Sha Tsui and central have reduced prices and sublet significantly, but it is difficult for him to take over.
In this regard, Wen Yunqiang, senior director of CBRE Hong Kong consulting and trading services and shops, said that with the widening rent expectation gap between owners and tenants, the vacancy rate of shops may remain high for some time.
In addition to business, UBS also predicted in the research report that the share price of retail owners in Hong Kong may face an additional decline of 12-22%, and the retail sales in Hong Kong may decline by 18-23% from February to March.
Hong Kong real estate enterprises overweight mainland
It is noteworthy that while the business environment in Hong Kong is in the doldrums, many Hong Kong enterprises have shown signs of overweight the mainland. Among them, in December 2021, Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) China’s official website wechat public platform showed that Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) China recently won three urban renewal projects in Dawan district; On January 4, 2022, Kerry Construction announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary zhuomiao Co., Ltd. successfully purchased four plots located in Huangpu District, Shanghai through bidding, with a total area of 38100 square meters and a transaction amount of 13.329 billion yuan (about HK $16.261 billion).
As for the development expectation of Hong Kong, CBRE Richard Ellis analyzed and pointed out in the outlook for Hong Kong commercial real estate market in 2022 that Hong Kong’s economy will continue to grow in 2021, the labor market will improve significantly, and the demand for trade and logistics will be strong. It is expected that Hong Kong’s economy and commercial real estate market will develop positively in the coming year.
Although it will take some time to recover, Zhou Yongheng, business director of Meilian business area, said in an interview with the reporter of Huaxia times that at present, many investors still hold a wait-and-see attitude and believe that after the epidemic is controlled, the commercial market situation in Hong Kong can recover.
Chen Jinping, head of CBRE’s Hong Kong Research Department, also said in the outlook report, “2022 will still be a year full of uncertainty. In view of the current positive business outlook, we expect the rental demand of shops and industrial property market to rise, so that the rent and capital value can see a moderate growth.”
