Sector performance: last week, the banking sector rose 0.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.78pct (CSI 300 index fell 1.68%); According to CITIC’s first-class industry classification standard, all industries are listed as 11 / 29 In terms of individual stocks, urban rural commercial banks with regional advantages ” Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) (9.09%), Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) (8.93%), Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) (8.43%), Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) (6.73%), Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) (4.52%)” led the increase Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) (- 3.54%), Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) (- 2.42%), Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) (- 0.49%) share prices decreased.
Key points of government work report: Premier Li Keqiang delivered a government work report last week. The following are worthy of attention:
Economic growth target: GDP growth is about 5.5%. The target is high and steady growth is expected to continue. The report emphasizes that the GDP growth rate of 5.5% is “medium and high-speed growth on a high base, which reflects the initiative and requires hard work.” The high economic growth target reflects the central government’s determination to stabilize growth. It is expected that the steady growth policy is expected to continue to exert its force and drive the market’s expected repair.
Monetary and credit policy: the prudent monetary policy is flexible and appropriate, and clearly requires “expanding the scale of loans”. The report basically continues the statement of monetary policy made at the central economic work conference, requiring that “prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity”, “expand the scale of new loans, keep the growth rate of M2 and social finance basically match the growth rate of nominal GDP, and maintain the basic stability of macro lever ratio”. Based on the requirements of expanding the scale of loans, the annual credit increment is expected to be no less than 20 trillion in 21 years, which is expected to support the year-on-year increase of social finance.
Fiscal policy: the amount of special debt is 3.65 trillion, and the construction projects will be restarted. The amount of special debt this year is 3.65 trillion yuan, the same as last year; However, considering the large scale of special bond issuance in the fourth quarter of last year, the commencement will be transferred to this year; It is expected that the change of issuance rhythm can also provide impetus for economic growth. At the same time, the report pointed out that it is necessary to “reasonably expand the scope of use, support the follow-up financing of projects under construction, and start a number of construction projects such as qualified major projects, new infrastructure and the transformation of old public facilities”, reflecting the restart of construction projects on the use side of special bond funds this year.
Inclusive small and micro Loans: there are no clear requirements for the growth of large banks, which is expected to ease the competition in the small and micro loan market.
Different from the previous year’s explicit requirement of 30% or 40% growth rate for inclusive small and micro loans of large banks, this year’s report only mentioned “promoting the significant growth of inclusive small and micro loans”, which is expected to alleviate the pressure on the investment of inclusive small and micro loans of large banks and ease the market competition of small and micro loans. By the end of 2021, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans has reached 19 trillion, accounting for 10%. It is expected that small and micro loans will grow steadily on a high base, and the pricing of small and micro loans will be more market-oriented.
Investment suggestion: the government work report sets the GDP growth target of this year at about 5.5%, and the steady growth target is clear. From the perspective of policy, considering the current economic pressure in China, it is expected that the steady growth policy is expected to continue to make efforts in real estate and infrastructure investment, driving the expected repair of the market. From a fundamental point of view, the industry performance is uncertain, and the potential adverse pressure is small. The accelerated transformation of financial management business will contribute to new profit growth points. From the perspective of capital, the proportion of institutional heavy positions held in the sector is at a historically low level, and there is little room for further reduction. The current sector is only 0.63 times the static Pb valuation, at a historical low. We believe that the credit easing policy continues to work and the valuation repair market of the banking sector is worth looking forward to. It is recommended to select banks with customer base, sales channels and product service system first mover advantages in the field of wealth management ( China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), high-quality small and medium-sized banks with location advantages and market-oriented system mechanism ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , etc.).
Risk tip: the economy stalled and went down, and the real estate regulation policies and regulatory policies changed unexpectedly.
