Investment summary:
The real estate market (A-share) rose by - 1.3% last week (A-share index rose by - 1.3% this week); The H-share real estate index (kroney real estate leading index) rose - 2.39% (last week - 9.78%), and the H-share market (Hang Seng Index) rose - 3.79% (last week - 6.41%).
This week, the performance of A-share and H-share real estate sectors were stronger than the market.
Industry fundamentals:
New home sales continued to be depressed, and second-hand housing transactions showed signs of recovery. From the data, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 45 cities (2.1 ~ 2.27) was - 27.9% year-on-year and - 27.1% year-on-year last month; The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities (3.1 ~ 3.4) was - 20.9% year-on-year and - 32.7% year-on-year last month.
The decontamination cycle continues to rise. From the data, the cycle of commercial housing in 15 cities (as of 3.4) was 590 days, compared with 540 days in the same period last month.
The supply and demand of the land market are weak, and the land supply in the first tier cities has warmed up. According to the data, the cumulative land construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (up to 3.6) was - 48.8% year-on-year, and - 45.1% year-on-year last week; The premium rate of land transaction in 100 large and medium-sized cities (2.28 ~ 3.6) this week was 1.4% and 1.3% last week; The total land transaction price of 100 large and medium-sized cities this year (as of March 6) was - 66.6% year-on-year, and - 64.5% year-on-year last week.
The issuance of domestic bonds of real estate enterprises continued to pick up, and the issuance of foreign debts and trusts continued to be depressed. According to the data, the issuance scale of domestic real estate bonds (3.1 ~ 3.6) was - 12.2% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 18.3% year-on-year; The issuance scale of overseas real estate bonds (3.1 ~ 3.6) was - 86.0% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 90.1% year-on-year; The scale of trust financing (3.1 ~ 3.6) accumulated - 91.6% year-on-year, and the scale of last month was - 51.2% year-on-year.
Investment strategy: the notice on promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry issued by Zhengzhou recently has given strong support at both ends of supply and demand. We believe that Zhengzhou, as an important second tier provincial capital city, the introduction of such comprehensive support policies at both ends of supply and demand has a strong demonstration effect, and its signal significance is far more significant than the recent easing of lending policies in third and fourth tier cities.
Live and work in peace, China's Banking Regulatory Commission, Guo Shuqing, said in March 2nd that the trend of real estate bubble financial turn was fundamentally reversed. Recently, the CIRC and the people's Bank of China will issue a new document to do a good job in the service of the new citizens. The population is about more than 300 million. Elderly care needs. The government work report released on March 5 also pointed out that we should try our best to help new citizens and young people alleviate their housing difficulties.
We believe that the central government's attitude towards real estate regulation has changed significantly, and the focus of the policy is shifting from the risk of real estate enterprises' capital to the risk of vicious circle caused by the stall decline on the demand side. With the current clear policy tone and encouragement direction, the support of demand side policies is expected to be more accurate and intensive, and the support of financial institutions to both ends of supply and demand is expected to be further strengthened. The housing demand of "300 million new citizens" is expected to become the focus of policy support in the next stage and an important support for reversing the sales decline in low-energy cities.
We believe that the advantages of financing will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . The support from the financing side, after meeting the steady central enterprises and real estate enterprises in the head, will gradually overflow to the stable private enterprises, and the market will gradually restore confidence in the stable private enterprises. It is suggested to continue to track the leaders of the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Risk tip: the risk that the implementation of industrial policies is less than expected, the risk that profitability continues to decline, and the risk that sales are less than expected.
