Zhou Du’s core view:
Gold jewelry:
Gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high scenery. According to the data released by China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Association, the actual consumption of gold in China in 2021 was 112090 tons, an increase of 36.53% compared with the same period in 2020 and 11.78% compared with the same period in 2019 before the epidemic. In the short term, under the situation of international turbulence, investment risk aversion has pushed up the price of gold; In the long run, the upgrading of the ancient process on the product side will stimulate terminal consumption, and the reform of changing the one-time price of gold to the weight of gold on the price side will promote the transparency of the pricing mechanism. With the head brand actively expanding the sinking market, the market concentration is expected to continue to improve. We continue to recommend Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , and suggest paying attention to Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
E-commerce:
The e-commerce industry tends to be standardized and develop healthily. Meituan and hungry have successively put forward plans for commission reduction and assistance to businesses. According to Deloitte’s 2022 global retail power report, jd.com ranked four places higher than last year, reaching the top 10 for the first time, becoming the first Chinese funded enterprise to enter the list. JD group has less regulatory risk and benefits from the lifting of “one of two”, and its long-term development strategy is in line with the goal of common prosperity.
Suggestion: JD group.
Traditional retail:
The “improved version” of HEMA neighborhood was launched, and the delivery home service was officially launched on March 3. At present, it has been fully launched in more than 1500 self delivery stores in seven cities across the country. Ali fully implements diversified governance. All departments need to operate independently and be responsible for their own profits and losses. HEMA has also shifted its strategic goal from single store profitability to comprehensive profitability. Suggestion: box horse (Alibaba).
Market review last week:
Last week (202202.28202203.04), the retail trade (CITIC) index rose 0.22%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.90pct Among the 30 first-class industries of CITIC, the commerce and retail sector ranked 9th. Among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries were other chains, professional market operation III and trade III, with increases of 7.34%, 2.55% and 2.47% respectively. The quantile of PE in the commercial retail industry is greater than that in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At present, the PE (TTM) of the commercial retail industry is 87.93, which is 96.97% from small to large since 2005; CSI 300 PE (TTM) is 13.04, with a quantile of 41.54%.
Industry dynamic tracking:
Electricity supplier: fast Kwai added new publicity standard for beauty industry. We will increase investment in VR content. Pico will sell about 500000 units in 2021; Meituan and hungry have successively issued Commission preferential measures to help small and medium-sized merchants “reduce costs” and “increase income”. Traditional retail:
The “improved version” of HEMA neighborhood went online quietly; Yonghui was shortlisted in the global retail top 250 list, ranking 84th, up 8 places from last year.
Investment suggestions:
Maintain the “overweight” rating of the commercial retail industry.
Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high outlook. We continue to recommend Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , and we suggest paying attention to Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Investment mainline 2: common prosperity background, superimposed traffic peaking status quo, Internet enterprises are facing fierce competition, it is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with supply chain advantages.
Investment main line 3: in the traditional and new retail field, the business form of warehousing members is in full swing. It is suggested to pay attention to the positive layout of warehouse store business forms such as HEMA (Alibaba), Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) .
Risk tips:
Repeated outbreaks; Macroeconomic depression; Industry competition intensifies.
