From historical experience, the short-term boosting effect of the “two sessions” on the market is obvious. At present, the investment window has been opened? For this year’s government report, which “new formulations” are more worthy of layout? The latest strategic views of the top ten securities companies are fresh, as follows:
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the policy force is more clear and the external impact is becoming clearer
The policies of the two sessions are positive, the objectives are clear, and the trend of steady growth is clear; The Russian Ukrainian incident accelerated inflation expectations and is expected to see a turnaround in March. The “three bottoms” of a-share market have been confirmed in turn. After the external impact is clear, it will usher in the resonance rise of value and growth
On the one hand, from the perspective of China’s economy and policies, we expect the overall economic data of the first two months to be stable, and the steady growth effect will initially appear. The two sessions have clear and clear objectives for the annual economic growth. It is expected that the follow-up policies will continue to increase, and the steady growth will achieve the expected effect during the year.
On the other hand, from the perspective of external shocks, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the supply prospects and price expectations of a series of industrial products, accelerated the rise of commodity prices, restricted the means of overseas central banks to control inflation and further pushed up inflation expectations. However, the bright future of the Russian Ukrainian incident and the rapid weakening of global demand may reverse the current trend of commodity prices, We expect that the Russian Ukrainian conflict will usher in preliminary results in March.
For A-Shares themselves, the recent market liquidity is relatively stable, and the pressure is significantly weaker than that before and after the Spring Festival. It is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth, actively increase positions and continue the layout around the “two low positions”.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : internal support is getting stronger, external constraints are getting weaker, balanced allocation, active participation
Third, the market will continue to grow steadily in the short-term, and the market will continue to grow steadily in the medium-term. In the first week of March, the market accelerated its rotation before the two sessions. The cycle style represented by coal, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery performed well, while the growth style retreated to a certain extent, and the steady growth chain remained relatively stable. Looking forward to the second week of March, although the economic targets announced by the two sessions at the weekend help the market unify expectations, the market still has great differences on the range of interest rate increase and table contraction near the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. Therefore, it is expected that the market fluctuation will continue, and it is suggested to continue to maintain a balanced allocation.
Overall, configuration continues to focus on three main lines and two major themes main line 1: continue to participate in the market of growth phase III. Specifically, we can focus on the growth main line represented by dual carbon and semiconductor and national defense, military industry, communication and computer ; Main line 2: add steady growth chain with relatively stable short-term performance, and focus on building materials, building decoration, urban pipe network transformation, new power grid construction and other new and old infrastructure fields, as well as real estate, bank and other related opportunities; Main line 3: consumption , continue to pay attention to airport, tourism, catering, leisure and other service travel chains, as well as the overall opportunities of Medicine sector in the short term; Grasp the opportunities related to dairy products, planting and chemical fertilizer with smoother price rise in the medium and long term; In terms of theme, continue to pay attention to digital economy and state-owned enterprise reform related theme investment opportunities.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : cherish the short-term recovery window and layout the “new formulation” industry of the two sessions
Historical experience shows that the “two sessions” have obvious short-term boosting effect on the market. According to the performance of A-Shares after the two sessions since 2002, Shanghai Composite Index has a rising probability of 70% one month after the two sessions ; Gem refers to a more short-term impact, with an increase probability of 72% and 82% respectively in the next week and two weeks. If it is during the period of comprehensive decline of important economic data, the Shanghai Composite Index and gem index will rise comprehensively after the two sessions (2008, 2014, 2015 and 2018). If these periods are excluded, the market rise probability in the remaining samples is basically less than 50%. It can be seen that in the period of worse economic fundamentals, the market is more sensitive to policy expectations, and the boosting effect of the two sessions on market sentiment is more obvious. In the second half of 2021, the main economic data began to decline in an all-round way. Even the latest PMI data is only mixed. At present, it is still under the multiple haze of unstable fundamentals, poor micro liquidity environment of the stock market and the impact of Russia and Ukraine. We cherish the window period in which the two sessions drive the recovery of market sentiment in the short term.
The short-term theme focuses on the direction of key industries of the two sessions in 2022. One belt, one road, is to compare the government work report in 2022 and 2021. It is found that the new industries of include: consumer service (catering, accommodation, retail, tourism), specialize in special and new home service industries, and industries with increased marginal strength include supply chain, digital economy, home appliances, water conservancy projects, energy infrastructure, and the other way around, carbon neutral (clean energy base).
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : focus on ten incremental industries
This year’s government work report is highly consistent with the central economic work conference at the end of last year. In the face of the triple pressure of “demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation”, the medium and high-speed growth on the high base reflects the initiative, improves the efficiency of fiscal policy and gives play to the “dual functions of total volume and structure” of monetary policy tools. Continue the tone of “steady growth” and “policy correction”, pay attention to infrastructure and consumption, plan the goal of energy consumption intensity, and give full play to the key role of investment. Industrial policies focus on manufacturing, digital economy and security development. Considering only the incremental information of this government work report,
We suggest paying attention to the policy driven opportunities of raw materials, key parts (machine tools, automobiles, etc.), 5g, smart city, integrated circuit, artificial intelligence, large wind and solar power base, power grid, water treatment and underground pipe gallery, green smart home appliances and other industries.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) : after the government work report of the two sessions, will the market have more confidence in steady growth
For the government work report, we are most concerned about how to lay out steady growth and whether the market will be more confident. Objectively, from the government work report, the market did not see that the management was equipped with “overwhelming resources” for steady growth; Nor do we see additional arrangements for real estate and exports that address market concerns.
This determines that the short-term market cannot ferment optimistic expectations in advance based on the GDP growth target of 5.5% so on the contrary, is it necessary to assert that steady growth is ineffective like some investors? We don’t think so. The fiscal budget of 2022 is like that of 2019, which is hard work! More importantly, the government work report provides some ideas to help us clarify where the resources for steady growth come from. This is the basis for thinking and tracking the upward risk of a shares.
To dispel the concerns about real estate and exports, the market may need support other than the government work report. Although the fiscal force is like that in 2019, the market cannot be more optimistic about steady growth in the short term. After the two sessions, the deduction resistance of the “restless logic” of “poor economy and wider policies” in the steady growth sector increased, the importance of data verification increased, and the difficulty of stock operation increased. The medium-term focus is mainly on the sources of economic upside risks. In 2022, the idea of steady growth has been basically clear: borrowing resources from the future (the catalyst for early fiscal expenditure in 2023 may be in the second half of the year), leveraging social leverage (only tracking social credit), improving policy execution (only follow up research), and keeping track of research. In terms of industry, focus on digital economy, pipe gallery and energy base in infrastructure construction, and consumer support for new energy vehicles is still the starting point. Under the pressure of cost reduction, domestic demand and domestic supply, electricity and Internet platforms will still face great policy resistance.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : waiting for the conflict to ease, preparing for the first quarterly report
Once the conflict between Russia and Ukraine slows down, the next expected time node of A-Shares or the upcoming quarterly market. Over the past 15 years, the market performance before and after the disclosure period of the first quarterly report has been strong. At the same time, there is a certain positive correlation between the growth performance of the first quarterly report and the rise and fall performance in the first quarterly report. Looking forward to the possible first quarter market in mid and late March, we believe that we should pay attention to winning with quality and optimize the segments with high prosperity and expected to exceed expectations. Focus on:
1) some cycle products ;
2) bank , which took the lead in the first quarter of the steady growth sector;
3) in the growth sector, photovoltaic modules / IGBT and semiconductor materials / CXO / military upstream / diaphragm and power battery leader / Gigabit broadband and so on, which still maintained a high boom in the first quarter and had no obvious damage to profitability;
4) railway / thermal power etc. whose performance was significantly damaged last year and expected to recover in the first quarter.
Focus on industries: crude oil / aluminum / coal, real estate, military industry, banking, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, photovoltaic
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : spring cover is still needed after waking the sting
According to this government work report, the positive signals are released intensively, which, on the one hand, improves the expected confidence of the numerator, on the other hand, alleviates the hidden worries of the early market at the denominator.
1) steady growth policy has lifted the confidence of molecular expectations under the current short-term economic pressure, achieving the growth target of 5.5% must “climb over the ridge”, which requires the cooperation of infrastructure, real estate and consumption. Therefore, the policy attitude of stabilizing growth is more distinct this time. The report puts forward that “in the face of new downward pressure, we should put stabilizing growth in a more prominent position” and “timely use reserve policy tools to ensure the smooth operation of the economy”. In addition, this report proposes to “give full play to the dual functions of the aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools to provide stronger support for the real economy”. In the future, cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies will be further strengthened to provide strong support for steady economic growth.
2) prevent and resolve major risks and alleviate potential market worries in the early stage the statement on real estate in this report continues the tone of the previous central economic work conference. At the same time, it does not mention the issues related to real estate tax, so as to avoid disturbing the demand side of residents and restore the pessimistic expectation of real estate. In addition, the report also proposed to “set up a financial stability guarantee fund and use market-oriented and legalized methods to resolve potential risks” to further alleviate the hidden worries of the early market about the real estate credit risk.
In addition to infrastructure, there is consumption. From the perspective of splitting valuation and profit contribution in 2022, on the one hand, there has been an inflection point in the liquidity expectation at the denominator end, which makes the valuation end of the market as a whole not only do not have the basis for comprehensive rise in the future, but in fact will continue to face negative contribution. We believe that in addition to infrastructure construction, we should also pay more attention to consumption and investment opportunities. This report puts forward “promoting residents’ income through multiple channels, improving the income distribution system and improving consumption capacity”. At the same time, it also refers to green smart appliances going to the countryside and exchanging the old for the new “. Industry configuration: 1) consumption: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (pigs) / household appliances / social services; 2) Capital construction: coal / steel / transportation / construction / chemical / machinery; 3) Finance: securities companies / banks; 4) Consumer electronics
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the market is expected to gradually strengthen and grow in a better style
The government work report puts forward a growth target of about 5.5%, which means that the steady growth policy will continue to be promoted, and the effect has been shown. The report takes into account structural adjustment and ensuring people’s livelihood. Scientific and technological innovation is the key to structural adjustment, and supporting the elderly and children is the focus of ensuring people’s livelihood. The market is expected to gradually become stronger with better growth style, such as photovoltaic wind power in low-carbon economy and cloud computing data center in digital economy.
In the context of China’s loose policy, the market performance has been weak since the beginning of the year. We believe that the disturbance behind it mainly comes from overseas: first, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates continued to heat up at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. The market expects that the number of interest rate increases by the fed in 2022 (calculated by 25 BP at a time) rose from 2-3 at the end of last year to the highest seven in February. It can be seen that the current market expectation for the fed to raise interest rates has been very high. Under the influence of recent geopolitical factors, the market expects that the probability of raising interest rates by 50 BP in March has decreased marginally. On March 2, Fed chairman Powell also clearly expressed his support for raising interest rates by 25 BP in March. Recently, the factor of the fed to raise interest rates may have been fully priced by the market.
Second, since mid January, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has gradually fermented, causing emotional disturbance to a shares. The impact of local conflicts on the market is often short-term, and the actual impact on the market is limited if it is prolonged. Drawing lessons from 2014, with the negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, the impact of Russia Ukraine conflict on the market is expected to gradually disappear.
Based on the above, the negative impact brought by the two disturbances will gradually weaken, and the market will eventually return to its own logic. The current government work report sets the 22-year GDP growth target at about 5.5%. We expect that China’s steady growth policy will continue to be implemented and the effect will gradually appear. This positive force is expected to gradually dominate. In addition, after reviewing the history, we found that the spring market of A-Shares has never been absent in the past 20 years , during which the average maximum increases of CSI 300 and Shanghai composite index were 24% and 22% respectively. In addition, in 10, 11 and 16 years, the Shanghai Stock Index experienced a January decline similar to the current market, but the index will rise in the first quarter after these three declines. With the implementation and effectiveness of the steady growth policy, the market is expected to turn from weak to strong.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : what signals does the government work report reveal
On the whole, this government work report is in line with expectations and basically consistent with the tone of the central economic work conference held at the end of last year. Compared with 2020 and 2021, the focus of work has changed. The overall economic growth target is 5.5%, which is at the upper limit of market expectation, which conveys a great determination to stabilize growth, and investment is expected to play a major role; In terms of fiscal policy, the tone has been set actively, the government expenditure budget has been expanded, and many arrangements have been made to expand effective investment; Monetary policy is “self oriented”, “flexible and appropriate”, “reasonable and abundant”, and the tone is basically the same as before; There is less ink in the field of real estate, adhere to the principle of no speculation in real estate and ensure the housing needs of the masses; In terms of industrial policy, it promoted the digital transformation of industry, and put forward for the first time the “ten-year plan for the implementation of basic research”, “three-year plan for the reform of the scientific and technological system”, “strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological force”, “implementing the chain guarantee and chain stabilization project of leading enterprises”, etc.
Based on the signals revealed in the government work report, recommends paying attention to the investment opportunities in new infrastructure fields such as real estate infrastructure, steady growth industrial chain, digital economy and high-end equipment, raw materials, new energy storage, photovoltaic and wind power
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the consumption of the whole year will show the trend of low in the front and high in the back, and improve quarterly
The government work report also proposed to “promote the sustainable recovery of consumption”. The statement mentioned measures such as increasing residents’ income, restoring business forms, logistics construction and encouraging the consumption of new energy vehicles and household appliances, which basically continued the previous tone of consumption policy without additional strong stimulation. We expect that with the support of the steady growth policy, the consumption of the whole year will show a trend of low before high and improve quarter by quarter. The compound growth rate based on 2019 will be further improved compared with last year.
Looking forward to the future, in terms of external demand, although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has brought some uncertainty to the global economic growth (especially Europe), in the short term, external demand is still resilient. In terms of domestic demand, investment may become a new force. Among them, in addition to being continuously driven by PPI, export, profit and high capacity utilization, the investment in manufacturing industry may further increase the support for domestic demand under the strong tax reduction and fee reduction and continuous credit support. With the steady growth policy this year, residents’ income is expected to stabilize and improve; The precise implementation of epidemic prevention and control policies also contributes to the restoration of catering, travel and other consumption scenes. We expect that the annual consumption will show a trend of low in the front and high in the back, with quarterly improvement. Overall, the annual economic growth target is expected to be achieved.
