Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the policy force is more clear and the external impact is becoming clearer
The “two sessions” policy is positive, the goal is clear, and the trend of steady growth is clear; The Russian Ukrainian incident accelerated the peak of inflation expectations. It is expected to see a turnaround in March. The “three bottoms” of the A-share market have been confirmed in turn. After the external impact is clear, it will usher in the resonance upward of value and growth.
On the one hand, from the perspective of China’s economy and policies, we expect the overall economic data in the first two months to be stable, and the steady growth effect will initially appear. The “two sessions” have clear and clear objectives for the annual economic growth, and it is expected that the follow-up policies will continue to increase, and the steady growth will achieve the expected results during the year. On the other hand, from the perspective of external shocks, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the supply prospects and price expectations of a series of industrial products, accelerated the rise of commodity prices, restricted the means of overseas central banks to control inflation and further pushed up inflation expectations. However, the clarity of the final trend of the Russian Ukrainian incident and the rapid weakening of global demand may reverse the current trend of commodity prices, We expect that the Russian Ukrainian conflict will usher in preliminary results in March.
for a shares, the market liquidity is relatively stable recently, and the pressure is significantly weaker than before and after the Spring Festival. It is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth, actively increase positions and continue to layout around “two low positions”
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the market is expected to gradually strengthen and grow in a better style
The government work report puts forward a growth target of about 5.5%, which means that the steady growth policy will continue to be promoted, and the effect has been shown. The report takes into account structural adjustment and ensuring people’s livelihood. Scientific and technological innovation is the key to structural adjustment, and supporting the elderly and children is the focus of ensuring people’s livelihood. The market is expected to gradually become stronger with better growth style, such as photovoltaic wind power in low-carbon economy and cloud computing data center in digital economy.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: spring cover is still needed after waking up
With the sound of a thunder, all things revive. This government work report intensively releases positive signals, the molecular end will accelerate its force, and the market warmth will gradually become stronger. However, the negative disturbance at the denominator end is still the medium-term constraint of the market, which limits the recovery range. Don’t forget to cover the spring.
According to this government work report, the positive signals are released intensively, which, on the one hand, improves the expected confidence of the numerator, on the other hand, alleviates the hidden worries of the early market at the denominator. 1) Steady growth policy sword out of the scabbard, raising the expected confidence of the molecular side. Under the current short-term economic pressure, achieving the growth target of 5.5% must “climb over the ridge”, which requires the cooperation of infrastructure, real estate and consumption. Therefore, the policy attitude of stabilizing growth is more distinct this time. The report puts forward that “in the face of new downward pressure, we should put stabilizing growth in a more prominent position” and “timely use reserve policy tools to ensure the smooth operation of the economy”. In addition, this report proposes to “give full play to the dual functions of the aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools to provide stronger support for the real economy”. In the future, cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies will be further strengthened to provide strong support for steady economic growth. 2) Prevent and resolve major risks and alleviate potential market worries in the early stage. The statement on real estate in this report continues the tone of the previous central economic work conference. At the same time, it does not mention the issues related to real estate tax, so as to avoid disturbing the demand side of residents and repairing the pessimistic expectation of real estate. In addition, the report also proposed to “set up a financial stability guarantee fund and use market-oriented and legalized methods to resolve potential risks” to further alleviate the hidden worries of the early market about the real estate credit risk.
In addition to infrastructure, there is consumption. With regard to infrastructure, the intention of financial development in this government work report is obvious, and infrastructure investment is expected to continue. In addition to infrastructure construction, we should also pay more attention to consumption and investment opportunities. This report puts forward “promoting residents’ income through multiple channels, improving the income distribution system and improving consumption capacity”. At the same time, it also refers to green smart appliances going to the countryside and exchanging the old for the new “. Industry configuration: 1) consumption: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (pigs) / household appliances / social services; 2) Capital construction: coal / steel / transportation / construction / chemical / machinery; 3) Finance: securities companies / banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : focus on ten incremental industries
This year’s government work report is highly consistent with the central economic work conference at the end of last year. In the face of the triple pressure of “demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation”, the medium and high-speed growth on the high base reflects the initiative, improves the efficiency of fiscal policy and gives play to the “dual functions of total volume and structure” of monetary policy tools. Continue the tone of “steady growth” and “policy correction”, pay attention to infrastructure and consumption, plan the goal of energy consumption intensity, and give full play to the key role of investment. Industrial policies focus on manufacturing, digital economy and security development.
Considering only the incremental information in this government work report, it is suggested to pay attention to policy driven opportunities in industries such as raw materials, key parts (machine tools, automobiles, etc.), 5g, smart city, integrated circuit, artificial intelligence, large wind and solar power base, power grid, water treatment and underground pipe gallery, green smart appliances, etc.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : “two sessions” deployment steady growth direction
Looking forward to the future, we believe that we still need to pay close attention to the impact of the external environment such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the Chinese market. The rise of regional risks may make China’s “steady growth” face a more complex situation and make China’s steady growth more urgent. However, if the geographical risks do not significantly exceed expectations, there is no need to worry too much about the future performance of a shares. We recently stressed that the market will experience a “policy bottom, sentiment bottom and growth bottom” in turn in the first half of this year. The current policy bottom has been relatively clear. The government work report during the “two sessions” over the weekend further clarified the specific direction and intensity of relevant policies, including a new round of tax reduction and fee reduction, expanding effective investment, implementing enterprise rescue Stabilizing employment, ensuring people’s livelihood and promoting consumption; The “emotional bottom” is also expected to be gradually confirmed. In the follow-up, we need to comprehensively consider the gradual implementation of China’s steady growth policy and the impact of external risk factors; The “bottom of growth” may also gradually appear from the first quarter to the second quarter under the action of the steady growth policy from the perspective of structure, we believe that the risk of growth stocks has been released in the early sharp correction and is gradually entering the stage of “bargain hunting”; The “steady growth” sector fluctuates more, but there may still be room for performance in the future. On the whole, the market style is better than the “steady growth” in the early stage, and it is possible to gradually transition to a relatively balanced stage
At present, we pay attention to three directions: 1) potential support areas for policy development, including infrastructure, real estate, stable demand related industrial chains (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted in 2021, the valuation is not high and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, the Internet, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; 3) Manufacturing growth sectors, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have released risks, and may enter the bargain hunting stage in the future.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : maintain “steady growth” + “small high tech” and “dumbbell” configuration
Maintain the configuration of “steady growth” + “small high-tech” and “dumbbell”. The “two sessions” will release a clear signal of “steady growth”, which will stabilize the market risk appetite. March was still in shock consolidation period, and three important variables were observed. 1. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting will be held on March 16. Under short-term inflation and geopolitical pressure, the Fed’s interest rate hike in March is a high probability event. Powell also said that he would determine the schedule at the meeting. 2. In the middle and late March, on the one hand, the prosperity indicators of popular tracks, such as the sales volume of new energy vehicles and the prospect of the first quarter report, will be released one after another, which will become an important signal for the confirmation of prosperity. On the other hand, China’s economic and financial data from January to February will also be released, which will become an important basis for the market to judge the effect of “steady growth” in the early stage and predict the rhythm and strength of follow-up policies. 3. The progress of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the price trend of bulk commodities such as oil prices will also be disturbed. Structurally, “steady growth” is a phased highlight. After the decline and rebound of science and technology growth, we need to wait for the verification of more boom and profit signals, and the main line may return in the second quarter. Under the signal of “steady growth” further released by the “two sessions”, the valuation of “steady growth” sectors such as real estate, infrastructure and banking is expected to continue to be repaired. Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price rise of petroleum, petrochemical, coal and other bulk commodities is expected to be further strengthened.
Steady growth “+” small high-tech “and” dumbbell “configuration: on the one hand, financial, real estate, petroleum, petrochemical, coal and other sectors that benefit from” steady growth “and expected price rise; on the other hand, continue to find targets that meet the characteristics of” small high-tech “from bottom to top in the adjustment of more medicine, computer and” new semi army “. In the long term, we will continue to focus on the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) (10.140, – 0.06, – 0.59%), advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : focus on investment opportunities in real estate infrastructure, steady growth industrial chain, photovoltaic wind power and other sectors
On the whole, this government work report is in line with expectations and basically consistent with the tone of the central economic work conference held at the end of last year. Compared with 2020 and 2021, the focus of work has changed. The overall economic growth target is 5.5%, which is located at the upper limit of market expectations. The work report mentioned that “all regions and departments should earnestly shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the economy and actively launch policies conducive to economic stability”, which conveys a great determination to stabilize growth. From the perspective of the Troika, expanding investment is the main driving force of steady growth, and the signal revealed in the comprehensive government work report.
It is recommended to pay attention to the steady growth of real estate infrastructure, industrial chain, digital economy, industrial Internet and other new infrastructure fields, as well as investment opportunities in high-end equipment, raw materials, new energy storage, photovoltaic, wind power and other sectors.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : A shares still need to “think carefully and act”, and “steady growth evolution” is uncertainty
The “two sessions” report released a clearer signal, and high-quality and stable growth was further clarified. According to the government work report: 1 Set the target of GDP growth of about 5.5%, and put the general tone of “steady growth” in a prominent position; 2. Emphasize the demand for “security” and risk prevention (food security / energy security / financial security); 3. Innovation driven strategy emphasizes strengthening the foundation (supply chain stability such as raw materials and key parts / digital infrastructure); 4. The strategy of expanding domestic demand emphasizes new energy vehicles / Green smart appliances at the consumer end, and the traditional infrastructure end is gas pipe network / underground pipe gallery; 5. The “double carbon” policy gives priority to the protection of energy supply (coal clean transformation / large scenery base / new energy consumption power grid system); 7. The tone of real estate is that housing is not fried, policies are implemented according to the city, and the increment point is in the “commercial housing market”.
A shares still need “careful thinking and practice”, “steady growth evolution” is the certainty of uncertainty. The combination of global stagflation + tightening has encountered geopolitical risks from Russia and Ukraine. Under the environment of “careful thinking and practice” – External uncertain “overseas stagflation” and internal new pattern “China’s high-quality and stable growth”, it is suggested to use low peg strategy around the “evolution theory of stable growth” and continue to pay attention to geopolitical risks and increase inflation clues: 1 Resources / materials benefiting from the inflation logic of “supply and demand gap” (coal / aluminum / potassium fertilizer); 2. “Old style” steady growth will still bear the role of “stabilizer” (real estate / building materials / coal chemical industry); 3. The “new” steady growth focuses on the increase of ink in the “two sessions” and the desirable direction of PEG (digital economy / photovoltaic).
Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) : a new round of upward attack of big finance
2022 government work report issued, “big finance” is expected to start a new round of upward attack. The guiding significance of the government work report for the whole year’s economy is that the GDP growth rate is set at 5.5%, which is basically the upper limit generally expected by investors. We believe that there will be greater policy support in the follow-up. March, April and even may are expected to become another period of intensive policy introduction after the economic work conference in December last year. Only with greater efforts, greater support and greater stability maintenance, we are expected to see a greater possibility of achieving the 5.5% target.
The market interpretation of “big finance” will start from two angles. March is at the intersection of economic data, financial data and policies. In this process, the quality of the data will open the blind box to show the more real side of the current economic situation. Of course, there will be different interpretations and understandings for data investors. On the whole, if the data is good, the “big finance” will be deduced from the market stage of expectation to data verification, and the rise with fundamental support will be smoother. If the data is not good, facing the GDP target of about 5.5%, the market will expect and expect more “stable growth” policies and measures, and the interpretation of the “big finance” market will repeat the expected fermentation stage after the economic work conference. In this process, we have passed the blind box stage of economic data, and the market will enter the cross verification period of high-frequency economic data at the macro level and the first quarterly report of listed companies at the micro level. Under the two-way promotion of expectations and fundamentals, the interpretation of large financial market is expected to exceed market expectations.
investment suggestion: add the main line of “big finance” (real estate chain and bank), and pay attention to the opportunities related to the cloud of digital economy, photovoltaic and wind power
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : “after the two sessions”, the Shanghai stock index has a 70% probability of rising, cherish the short-term recovery window
Historical experience shows that the “two sessions” have obvious short-term boosting effect on the market. According to the statistics of the performance of A-Shares after the “two sessions” since 2002, the probability of Shanghai composite index rising one month after the “two sessions” is 70%; Gem refers to a more short-term impact, with an increase probability of 72% and 82% respectively in the next week and two weeks. If it is during the period of overall decline of important economic data, the Shanghai Composite Index and gem index will rise comprehensively after the “two sessions” (2008, 2014, 2015 and 2018). If these periods are excluded, the market rise probability in the remaining samples is basically less than 50%. It can be seen that in the period of worse economic fundamentals, the market is more sensitive to policy expectations, and the boosting effect of the “two sessions” on market sentiment is also more obvious. In the second half of 2021, the main economic data began to decline in an all-round way. Even the latest PMI data is only mixed. At present, it is still under the multiple haze of unstable fundamentals, poor micro liquidity environment of the stock market and the impact of Russia and Ukraine, cherish the window period in which the “two sessions” drive the recovery of market sentiment in the short term
The short-term theme focuses on the direction of key industries of the “two sessions” in 2022. One belt, one road, is the following: by comparing government work reports in 2022 and 2021, we find that the new industries include: consumer services (catering, accommodation, retail, tourism), specialize in special and new home services, and industries with increased marginal strength include supply chain, digital economy, household appliances, water conservancy projects, energy infrastructure, and the other way around, carbon neutral (clean energy base).
