Today (March 7), the three major A-share indexes opened low in the morning and fluctuated all the way down, showing a pulsed downward pattern. Then they consolidated at a low level and showed all the weak forms.
From the disk point of view, the risk aversion is heating up, the general decline market reappears, showing a “green”, and only a few industries and concept sectors are relatively resistant to decline. In the gold sector, as of press time, Pengxin International Mining Co.Ltd(600490) , Leysen Jewelry Inc(603900) limit, Mclon Jewellery Co.Ltd(300945) , Hunan Gold Corporation Limited(002155) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , etc. have been rising ahead; In the real estate development sector, Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) , Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co.Ltd(600684) , Cinda Real Estate Co.Ltd(600657) , etc.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] golden concept
East Asia Qianhai Securities said that the intensification of international geopolitical contradictions is the main reason for the recent rise in gold prices. In addition, global inflation continued to rise, creating conditions for the rise in gold prices. First, according to the CPI year-on-year data released by European and American countries, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.5% year-on-year in January 2022, the highest level since August 1982; In January 2022, the CPI of the euro zone increased by 5.1% year-on-year, a record high. The recent rising crude oil price also reflects that the current inflation level is further rising. As an anti inflation asset, gold has sufficient upward mobility under the current high inflation level.
Secondly, the current market expectations for future interest rate hikes are becoming stronger and stronger. It is expected that the gold price will continue to be strong in the process of this round of interest rate hikes. On the one hand, as the time approaches March, the gold price remains strong, indicating that the negative effect of the current interest rate hike on gold is weakening and the market expectation is gradually digested. On the other hand, it is expected that this interest rate increase will have a limited impact on gold prices. During the past six interest rate hikes, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States has continued to increase, so this interest rate hike may not have an essential impact on inflation; At the same time, raising interest rates will inhibit economic recovery. As of February 23, 2022, the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds is about 1.99%, up about 0.36pct from the beginning of the year The rapid rise of interest rate will bring operating pressure to enterprises and is not conducive to economic recovery.
The agency believes that the gold price has reached a new high. Under the influence of geopolitics, high inflation, fragile economic operation and the gradual disappearance of negative interest rate increases, the gold price is expected to open an upward channel, and the gold production enterprises may benefit. The relevant targets include Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Western Region Gold Co.Ltd(601069) , etc.
Chuancai securities also pointed out that since the beginning of the year, due to the high inflation in the United States and the repricing of monetary policy, the double killing of U.S. stocks and bonds has been promoted, and the safe haven attribute of gold has regained its favor of funds, and the investment targets, including gold related stocks, gold ETFs and gold futures, have received capital inflows. The subsequent gold price is expected to continue to strengthen under the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical factors.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that historically, the rise of gold price is conducive to the improvement of gross profit margin of gold jewelry sales, thus driving the overall profitability of the industry. At present, there is still no obvious downward trend in the prosperity of gold and jewelry. In particular, various gold jewelry companies focusing on gold sales still have pulse opportunities in the short term. On the contrary, the demand for mass consumer goods still lacks long-term driving factors, the offline retail sector is still under pressure, and short-term suggestions are mainly on the sidelines. To sum up, we are most optimistic about the gold jewelry sector, and the valuation of gold jewelry companies is generally low and relatively safe.
[Theme 2] Education
Wanlian securities mentioned that the focus of education is on the norms of after-school training and vocational education, and advocates that heroes are not only based on achievements. The Ministry of education proposed to standardize the management of non subject after-school training and moderately expand the enrollment scale of secondary and higher vocational colleges in some fields. It is suggested to pay attention to the education companies that promote the development of educational technology, deeply cultivate the sub track of quality education and vocational education.
Previously, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) said that private higher education would benefit from the process of China’s vocational education reform for a long time. Compared with Germany, there are many challenges in China’s vocational education reform, including the need to further clarify the positioning of vocational education, the need to gradually narrow the employment and income gap between vocational education and ordinary graduates, the rapid change of industrial structure puts forward more requirements for the professional construction capacity of vocational education, and the relatively insufficient investment of private capital in higher education, Enterprises have weak motivation to participate in school enterprise cooperation. The above factors lead to the weak attraction of vocational education, and the improvement of relevant factors will be a long-term process. In the process of China’s vocational education reform, we believe that private higher education companies can gain advantages in the process of in-service education reform through their market demand-oriented school running policy and flexible school running mechanism, and help to explore the path of vocational education reform suitable for China’s national conditions.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that at present, we recommend two main lines: (1) Vocational Education: Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) , Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) ; (2) Higher education: at present, some higher education stocks 22pe have fallen below 10 times, mainly due to: 1) higher education companies are cautious about M & A expectations, partly due to the current upside down valuation of the primary and secondary markets; 2) At present, most regions have not yet issued detailed rules for the selection of business and non business, and the market is worried about the policy risk of higher education stocks; 3) Concerns about future price increases and the ceiling of net interest rates. We believe that, on the one hand, the performance of higher education sector continues to be stable. On the other hand, the state accelerates the implementation of vocational undergraduate work, and private undergraduate schools are expected to benefit. We continue to recommend China Education Holdings, hope education, Gaoxin education group, Zhonghui education, China Science and technology training, etc.
[Theme 3] real estate development
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that from the perspective of the industry, the recent policy warm wind is blowing frequently, and we think we should strengthen our confidence at this time: ① “stability” is the core demand, which should not be expected to be in place in one step, but the direction is more important. ② The short-term problem is a fact, but it has been digested by the market, not to mention the dawn. ③ The “golden combination” of improved sales boom and rational land market is expected to appear, the profit level of the industry will improve, high-quality real estate enterprises can also return to growth, and alpha resonates with beta.
From the perspective of individual stocks, in the medium and short term, with the greater relaxation of policies in non restricted areas, the second tier leading real estate enterprises with more third and fourth tier cities will benefit more; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of the fast turnover mode from the historical stage and the repair of the long-term balance sheet of real estate enterprises, the leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and outstanding comprehensive strength will continue to benefit; In addition, Wuguan leading companies are expected to benefit from the lifting of real estate repression in the future, and the valuation is expected to be repaired.
Recommended Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
For the real estate industry, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) said that the view that “the first quarter is a better configuration window period” was maintained. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, rongchuang China, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
Capital securities mentioned that at present, the valuation center of the real estate industry has been repaired. At this stage, the rebound logic of the sector is still mainly based on the expectation of policy relaxation. The strength management after the direction is confirmed will still have a strong correlation with the upward space of the sector. Under the background of steady growth, we think the strength of policy release will be strengthened step by step, It is not ruled out that non hot cities break the shackles of excessive regulation in the past, and the subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. For real estate enterprises, with the reconstruction of the industry pattern and development model in the future, the operation and management efficiency and credit acquisition ability of real estate enterprises will be the key factors to be paid attention to in the medium and long term. Accelerating the liquidation within the industry means the emergence of opportunities to improve the concentration. We suggest paying attention to real estate enterprises with relatively stable operation and finance, and continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) . China’s overseas development.
In addition, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that under the main line of “stable growth”, the expectation of policy game is increasing, and the market deduction path is gradually clear, transitioning from state-owned enterprise housing to private enterprise housing and property management companies. At present, the industry policy supports the gradual transition from the supply side to the demand side. The relaxation of the management of guaranteed housing loans and the regulation and adjustment of pre-sale funds are the beginning of “stable growth”. Follow up attention will be paid to the implementation of relevant policies, the first batch of centralized land supply and the acquisition and merger of real estate enterprises.
[Topic 4] Medicine
Guosheng Securities pointed out that medicine has entered the layout range, which can be moderately optimistic, and the medium and short term is still bottom-up. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been obviously solved, and the conditions for bottom rebound have been met. In the short and medium term, the market has not yet found a clear main line, and the oversold rebound may become the strongest direction in stages.
The agency further mentioned that our idea is to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “fundamental common sense valuation oversold and discount”, in other words, they fall to the second-order guide of irrational valuation range. Here you can see more pharmaceutical science and technology innovation with obvious overall decline and individual stocks with high identification & clean chip structure. 2) Excavate stocks with high growth or may exceed expectations in the first quarter, which can be combined with the previous oversold situation. 3) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, adult class II vaccine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc.
AVIC Securities said that according to the announcement and annual report previously released by Pfizer, the price of a single course of paxlovid is $529. It is expected that the revenue of covid-19 oral medicine will reach $22 billion in covid-19 treatment products in 2022. Covid-19 oral medicine, as the last puzzle in the current covid-19 treatment industry chain, has broad market prospects. In addition to the innovation expectations given by enterprises directly involved in covid-19 oral drug research and development, China’s CXO industrial chain has a complete integrated chain with obvious cost and efficiency advantages. The order announcements issued by some enterprises also confirm our previous view. In the short term, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the R & D of covid-19 small molecule drugs, and pay attention to the listed companies deeply involved in the supply chain of covid-19 preventive drugs, including Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) -u, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) etc.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that considering the background of the pharmaceutical industry, on the one hand, the uncertainty caused by the continuous implementation of the centralized procurement policy this year (centralized procurement of consumables, national procurement, alliance procurement, etc.), on the other hand, the short-term pharmaceutical industry sector has not seen clear favorable policies / changes, and there is no upward momentum in the short term. It is advisable to look at the quantity of scenery. The valuation of many pharmaceutical companies has reached a very reasonable range. The uncertainty of changes brought by policies makes many investors unable to start. We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream + other directions to find the target from bottom to top.
