Since the year of the tiger, the market style has changed, the growth track stocks have retreated significantly, and the market of “drinking and taking medicine” has also suffered a setback. In contrast, cyclical stocks such as oil, coal and non-ferrous metals performed well. According to the data, as of today (March 7), since the year of the tiger, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Yankuang energy’s market value has increased first, while Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) market value has evaporated first.
Excluding new shares during the year, as of today, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) (168.4 billion yuan), China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (89.6 billion yuan), Yankuang energy (61.1 billion yuan), Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (54.5 billion yuan) and China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) (43.2 billion yuan) ranked among the top five in terms of annual market value growth. The market value of 30075 (321 billion yuan), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (226.1 billion yuan), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (125.7 billion yuan), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (74.7 billion yuan) and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (74.3 billion yuan) ranked among the top five.
Among them, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) market value growth topped the list, with an increase of 18.33% since the year of the tiger, and the CSI 300 closed down 4.62% in the same period. Previously, the company predicted that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the company in 2021 would increase by RMB 71-75 billion, an increase of 374% – 395%, and the performance would be the best in seven years. Among them, the exploration and production sector was the main source of profit growth in 21 years, and the oil refining, chemical industry and sales sector benefited from the repair of the epidemic. Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has disturbed the global market and the price of crude oil has soared. Dama said that due to PetroChina’s huge marginal oil field exposure, it is most sensitive to oil prices. Its highest yield is that the price of Brent phase oil is higher than US $65. Its rich natural gas resources are an important part of China’s carbon neutralization roadmap. With the formation of the market-oriented natural gas pricing mechanism, the value of the natural gas sector may gradually appear, despite the rise of oil prices, However, the loss of imported natural gas is expected to be controlled.
In addition, further statistics show that among the top 20 companies with market value growth since the year of the tiger, coal and non-ferrous metals (four each) industries are the main ones, of which Yankuang energy and Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) increased by more than 50%. For the coal industry, Guosheng Securities believes that after entering the off-season of demand in March, the coal price may show a seasonal downward trend. However, if the problem of low coastal inventory cannot be effectively solved, the coal price may rise again after the periodic decline. In addition, China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited space for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the rise of coal price center will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises. Stick to the core assets and be optimistic about the valuation repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises. Key recommendations: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) .
For the non-ferrous metals industry, Kaiyuan Securities believes that 1) industrial metals: the Russian Ukrainian conflict has exacerbated the disturbance to the supply of industrial products. Among them, the disturbance of overseas supply continues, the accumulation rate of China’s aluminum mines slows down, and copper mines continue to trade inflation expectations, but the recovery of China’s demand is slow. 2) Energy metals: the prosperity of the industry continues to rise, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. The supply shortage of lithium ore is difficult to alleviate, and the price of lithium reaches a new high. The shortage of rare earth supply intensifies, and the price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. 3) Precious metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, providing strong support for the price of precious metals. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, the two rounds of negotiations between the two sides did not make substantive progress, and the global risk aversion continued to rise, pushing up the price of precious metals. On the other hand, as the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike on gold tends to weaken, inflation trading has become the mainstream of the market.
