The screen is green. The sharp fall of A-Shares on March 7 made the market enter the process of double dip. Many investors broke the defense again, and fund companies also issued urgent documents to appease them, saying there was no need to panic excessively.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.17%, losing 3400 points; The gem index fell 4.3%, a low of nearly a year, and aviation, petrochemical and Baijiu fell by a large margin. The capital outflow of North China was 8 billion 271 million yuan.
In the view of many fund companies, the sharp decline of A-Shares today is due to multiple factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the rise of oil prices, the tightening of overseas monetary policy and investor sentiment. If the subsequent relevant situation does not significantly upgrade, the volatility of the next trading day this week may slow down, but we still need to be cautious. The continuous market shock in the short term is still a probability event. However, they are not pessimistic about the medium-term trend and believe that the overshoot of high-quality growth stocks under risk events is also bringing opportunities for low absorption.
looking for reasons for decline
CIC Morgan said that under the influence of multiple factors, the decline in the first trading day of this week is more severe. If the subsequent relevant situation does not significantly upgrade, the fluctuation of the next trading day of this week may slow down, but we still need to be cautious. The continuous market shock in the short term is still a high probability event.
There are several reasons for the sharp decline of the market. First, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has too much uncertainty, which has brought continuous disturbance to investors' sentiment; Second, the relevant sanctions activities extended by the war, coupled with the decision of the OPEC + meeting last week to maintain the original production increase plan, may further drive the soaring of crude oil and bulk commodities, resulting in a more severe inflation situation in the future. At the same time, it also pushes up the cost of enterprises or further weakens the profits of enterprises, Promote investors' concerns about the market to extend to macro and enterprise fundamentals.
Qianhai open source Fund believes that the "steady growth" signals released by the two sessions, including GDP growth rate of 5.5% and deficit rate of 2.8%, are basically expected by the market and have not brought more powerful stimulus measures. After superposition, the "steady growth" sector has accumulated a certain rise, and the market shows phased positive performance.
China Europe Fund also said that considering that the GDP increased by 4.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2021, the real estate market with a quarter of China's economy continued to cool, the actual export growth slowed down rapidly, the cost of the "dynamic zero" anti epidemic strategy is increasing, and it is expected that the strategy will continue this year, and the current policy easing is slightly mild, At present, the market has a slight lack of confidence in the economic growth target, which makes the growth industry weaker than the "stable growth" related industries.
Hua'an fund mentioned the overseas influence. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time next week and may start to shrink the table in the second half of the year. The tightening monetary policy of European and American central banks may have a negative impact on the global economy and liquidity, and promote the decline of equity market valuation and the decline of global risk appetite.
Jiutai fund emphasized the influence of market sentiment. The dividend yield and profit growth rate of enterprises rarely fluctuate sharply in a very short cycle (such as a year). However, it is not uncommon for stocks to double or halve within a year. The key role is the change of valuation level caused by the change of P / E ratio. The change of sentiment leads to the change of P / E ratio, which in turn leads to the change of valuation level and stock price. However, from a long cycle, the impact of valuation on the rate of return has been proved to be neutral - "Mr. market" has both extreme pessimism and extreme optimism. In the long run, "good luck" and "bad luck" will be offset by each other.
Qianhai Kaiyuan believes that on the whole, March is still in a period of shock consolidation, and three variables still need to be observed in the follow-up: first, the arrangement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in mid March on the table contraction and the process of interest rate increase within the year; Second, the prosperity indicators of popular tracks, such as the sales volume of new energy vehicles, the prospect of the first quarter report and other data, as well as China's economic and financial data from January to February; Third, the progress of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the price trend of bulk commodities such as oil prices will also be disturbed.
Huaxia Fund said that in the short term, affected by geographical conflicts, oil prices and fluctuations in peripheral markets, A-Shares continue to fluctuate and weaken, but they are not pessimistic about the medium-term trend. The overshoot of high-quality growth stocks under risk events is also bringing opportunities for low absorption.
short term shocks & medium and long term "focus on me"
"In fact, China's economy has a certain degree of independence and is less affected by global risks." Ping An fund bluntly said that the time and space for peripheral political and economic impact on the market are limited, and the market is expected to return to a reasonable range after panic.
The company believes that at the current stage, "steady growth" is still the main investment line, new and old infrastructure work together, and real estate has marginal room for improvement. At the same time, the post epidemic cycle, encouraging fertility, price elasticity and other topics also deserve attention.
"We expect to maintain a volatile situation after the recent rapid decline." Guohai Franklin Foundation believes. Huaxia Fund also said that in the short term, affected by geographical conflicts, oil prices and fluctuations in peripheral markets, A-Shares continued to fluctuate and weaken. However, the company is not pessimistic about the medium-term trend, and the overshoot of high-quality growth stocks under risk events is also bringing opportunities for low absorption.
"The current adjustment of the stock market does not fully reflect the expectation of the improvement of China's fundamentals. It is more dominated by short-term panic. At present, it is still optimistic about the medium-term trend of the market." In terms of investment direction, Huaxia Fund continues to prompt the resurgence of boom investment, and is optimistic about high-profile tracks such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors and photovoltaic, as well as investment opportunities in the non-ferrous sector under the background of price rise.
"There may be more short-term uncertainty, but there is no need to consider excessive short-term uncertainty." TEDA Manulife Fund said that they continue to be optimistic about the undervalued value in the sector. The "bottom of the market" of Finance (banks) and real estate (central enterprises) has not been determined. With the relaxation of urban policies, there may be investment opportunities in the real estate industry chain. At the same time, some growth segments with upward prosperity, such as photovoltaic, medicine, wind power, IGBT, military industry, semiconductor equipment and materials, can gradually absorb the bargain hunting layout strategy.
Jin Zicai, fund manager of CAITONG, also believes that with the introduction of measures to stabilize growth, the high probability of economic low point has passed. With the development of various infrastructure projects and financial development, the bottom of the economy has been proved. However, in his view, the fundamentals of the investment market this year may be lower than expected, and the safer fund types are biased towards the consumer side or the required consumption. In this context, agriculture and service industry will be a better direction.
In addition, Jin Zi suggested that investors need to avoid growth industries and cyclical industries. Assuming that the steady growth in the second half of this year has had some effect, for example, the performance of the Baijiu and real estate chain will be returned again, and assets in these directions should also be concerned.
However, China Europe Fund believes that although the impact of the Fed's interest rate increase and table contraction expectations on the market has eased slightly recently, and the warming of China's own stable growth expectations has also exacerbated the popularity of value stocks, in fact, there is no fundamental inflection point from the perspective of growth stocks. Therefore, the recent market adjustment is more a process of switching from institutional concentration to value, and the volatility rise caused by the weakening of market sentiment. From a longer time perspective, the correction of growth stocks caused by the expected warming of stable growth policy may provide better medium and long-term buying opportunities in the future.
"At present, the market is still in a state of unclear main line, and the main line will be re established after the performance of the first quarterly report is confirmed." According to AXA Puyin fund, the market needs to comprehensively consider the gradual implementation of China's steady growth policy and the impact of external risk factors. According to the current market situation, there are still many uncertainties, including the international situation, China's epidemic situation and US monetary policy. We need to find certainty in the uncertainty, focusing on photovoltaic, steady growth, electricity, medicine Structural opportunities in sectors such as consumption.
According to the analysis of Qianhai open source fund, March is still in the shock consolidation period, and three variables still need to be observed in the follow-up. The first is the arrangement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in mid March for the table contraction and the process of raising interest rates during the year. Second, the prosperity indicators of popular tracks, such as the sales volume of new energy vehicles, the prospect of the first quarter report and other data, as well as China's economic and financial data from January to February. Third, the progress of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the price trend of bulk commodities such as oil prices will also be disturbed.
"We believe that the A-share market will work along the undervalued value and strive to grasp infrastructure and consumption." China Merchants Fund said that in the future, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the short-term adjustment of the market. The two sessions released positive signals. The GDP target growth rate of 5.5% in 2022 indicates that steady growth will accelerate, the molecular end (enterprise profits) will accelerate in the future, and the market warmth will become stronger. However, the negative disturbance at the denominator (market environmental factors) is still the medium-term constraint of the market, which limits the recovery range.
In terms of structural allocation, China Merchants Fund believes that "flow at low water level" needs to find the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement, focusing on infrastructure and consumption. With regard to infrastructure, the intention of financial development in this government work report is obvious, and infrastructure investment is expected to continue. In addition to infrastructure construction, we should also pay more attention to consumption and investment opportunities. This report puts forward "promoting residents' income through multiple channels, improving the income distribution system and improving consumption capacity". At the same time, it also refers to green smart appliances going to the countryside and exchanging the old for the new ".
"On the whole, the A-share market fluctuates in the short term, but it is not pessimistic in the medium and long term. The demand for stable growth is strong, the positive factors are revised, and the risk appetite is expected to rise slowly from the low level." China Merchants Fund said.
"The more panic you feel, the better time it may be to invest." According to the analysis of Jiutai fund, at this time, confidence is more important than gold. It is suggested that investors establish the values of long-term investment.
After the situation in Russia and Ukraine became clear, the golden eagle fund believed that the spring rebound offensive of A-Shares still existed. "The recent inflation concerns surrounding the situation in Russia and Ukraine need to be digested. China also needs to wait for more policies or observe the improvement of important economic and financial indicators after the two sessions in order to really boost market confidence." In terms of industry allocation, the company still adheres to the balanced allocation of steady growth + technology.
In the face of the current market situation, in terms of short-term strategy, Shanghai Investment Morgan fund suggests that investors can anchor the stable growth with relatively high certainty and the new and old infrastructure, commodities and other related sectors benefiting from the recent situation, and reduce the targets with relatively high growth and valuation.
Structurally, Hua'an fund suggests balanced allocation of growth directions such as steady growth, high dividends and digital economy. Attach importance to safety margin and pullback control, and allocate gold as a hedging tool. "In the medium term, investors need to be more patient than usual and have a clearer positioning of our position." The company said that with the gradual fermentation of the policy, both the overall economy and the stock market in the medium and long term may be able to walk out of the path of "focusing on me".
Looking forward to the future, according to the government work report in 2022, Xie Jun, investment manager of Hang Seng Qianhai fund, believes that the theme of "stable growth" may run through the whole year. At the same time, growth industries with great macro impact in the early stage, such as new energy vehicles and semiconductors, may have greater repair flexibility after the expected easing of commodity price rise caused by the "Russia Ukraine conflict", We can focus on the opportunities of bargain hunting layout of growth tracks represented by new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and electronics.
For the new energy sector, Yan Anqi, the proposed fund manager of Nord fund, said that the follow-up will continue to pay attention to the production expansion progress and price changes in the middle and upper reaches. The sales volume in March and the quarterly report in April can be used to test the pressure bearing capacity of relevant companies. Among them, companies with better response will be worthy of long-term investment.
