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several institutions hold individual shares, and the stock price retreats and normalizes after the festival
Institutional trend is one of the market indicators. Recently, the withdrawal of concentrated positions of many institutions has become the focus of the capital market. Is the institutional position stocks withdrawn in the short term or sold off?
According to the classification of the number of shareholding institutions in 2021 (due to the incomplete disclosure of the annual report data before and after the Spring Festival, the article selects the data of the third quarterly report), securities times · databao calculates the average rise and fall of one month after the Spring Festival.
Stocks with more than 1000 shareholding institutions fell by an average of 3.89% one month after the Spring Festival in 2022, stocks held by 500 to 1000 institutions fell by an average of 2.3% one month after the Spring Festival, stocks jointly held by 10 to 30 institutions rose by an average of more than 2% one month after the Spring Festival, and stocks held by less than 10 institutions rose by an average of 5.3% one month after the Spring Festival. It is not difficult to see that the performance of individual stocks held by many institutions is relatively weak, and the pullback is large. The sharp retreat of individual stocks held by many institutions after the Spring Festival is not the only "Spring Festival effect" in 2022.
The performance of the resumption of trading after the Spring Festival from 2018 to 2021. After the Spring Festival in 2021, the withdrawal of the concentrated position shares of multiple institutions is the most significant. The individual shares held by more than 1000 institutions fell by nearly 17% on average one month after the Spring Festival, and the individual shares held by 500 to 1000 institutions fell by more than 15% over the same period; The centralized shareholding of 10 to 30 institutions increased by an average of about 2% in the same period, and the average increase of individual stocks held by less than 10 institutions exceeded 10%.
Looking ahead, in the month after the Spring Festival in 2018 and 2019, compared with companies with a small number of shareholding institutions, the performance of concentrated position shares of multiple institutions is generally weak. In 2020, due to the impact of covid-19 pneumonia, the opposite situation was presented. Stocks with more than 100 shareholding institutions rose by an average of more than 3% one month after the Spring Festival in 2020.
performance of large cap stocks after the Spring Festival
weaker than small cap stocks
In fact, after analyzing the basic attributes of the stocks held by many institutions, it is found that the market value of the stocks held by many institutions is generally large.
The average market value of individual shares held by more than 500 institutions exceeds 500 billion yuan, the average market value of individual shares held by 300 to 500 institutions exceeds 200 billion yuan, and the average market value of individual shares held by less than 10 institutions is less than 10 billion yuan.
In order to analyze the performance of large cap stocks and small cap stocks after the Spring Festival, databao calculates the performance of one month after the Spring Festival according to the market value classification (taking the last trading day before the Spring Festival as the base day). In 2020 and 2021, large market capitalization stocks retreated significantly, of which 500 billion to trillion stocks fell by an average of 6.89% and 16.51%. In 2018, 2019 and 2022, the performance of large market capitalization stocks was weaker than that of small market capitalization stocks. In 2022, for example, 300 billion to 500 billion stocks fell by an average of 0.17% in the month after the Spring Festival, and the market value of stocks below 10 billion rose by an average of 5%.
Four main reasons for the withdrawal of individual stocks held by many institutions
Based on the above two points, it is found that the large market value stocks with concentrated positions in many institutions are the main stocks withdrawn significantly. The concentration of positions in stocks by multiple institutions means that institutions are focused on these stocks, which is often accompanied by the allocation of institutions to relevant sectors, the position continues to increase significantly, and continues to reach a phased high. With the increase in the number of institutions and the acceleration of A-share institutionalization, the number of shareholding institutions of listed companies has gradually increased from less than 50 in 2000 to more than 1600 at present Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other institutions hold more than 1000 shares. These two shares fell sharply after the Spring Festival, and the latter fell by nearly 15%.
It is worth mentioning that the latest number of shareholding institutions of individual stocks such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and China stock market news increased significantly compared with the end of the third quarter of 2021. So what are the reasons for the correction of concentrated positions of many institutions, and why do the individual stock markets with small market value and a small number of shareholding institutions perform well? This paper attempts to analyze it from the perspective of data.
multiple institutions' centralized position shares
excellent performance before the festival
After analyzing the performance of the month before the Spring Festival from 2018 to 2022, it is found that the performance of concentrated position stocks of multiple institutions before and after the festival is inversely correlated, that is, the performance of concentrated position stocks of multiple institutions before the festival is excellent and after the festival is weak. For example, in 2022, stocks held by 10 to 30 institutions fell by an average of 11.27% in the month before the Spring Festival and rose by more than 2% in the month after the Spring Festival. In 2018, 2019 and 2021, the anti correlation before and after the Spring Festival is relatively significant. In 2020, due to the impact of covid-19 pneumonia epidemic, this reverse relationship is not obvious.
The correction of stocks with excellent early performance under the action of sector rotation is acceptable to investors.
first quarter Public Fund
frequent transactions
According to experience, from the end of last year to the first quarter of the next year is the high-frequency time window for institutional position adjustment. Well known institutions generally believe that the correction of concentrated position shares of many institutions may be related to fund position adjustment.
Due to the incomplete disclosure of the data in the first quarterly report of the fund, from 2018 to 2022, the average daily turnover rates of equity public funds in the fourth quarter of the previous year and the first quarter of the current year are calculated respectively.
According to data treasure statistics, the average daily turnover rate of funds in the first quarter of 2018 to 2021 exceeded that in the fourth quarter of the previous year. The average daily turnover rate of equity public funds in the first quarter of 2021 was 2.63% and 1.88% in the fourth quarter of the previous year. From the beginning of 2022 to February 25, the average daily turnover rate of equity public funds was 2.78%, which was relatively high in the same period in history. The amplification of turnover rate proves that the fund is trading frequently.
multiple institutions' centralized position shares
valuation is relatively high
Individual stocks basically have a crucial impact on stock price changes. Data treasure calculates the median price earnings ratio of listed companies with different number of shareholding institutions (the last trading day before the Spring Festival) and compares it with the valuation of the corresponding industry in the same period. The data show that the valuation of concentrated position stocks of many institutions is generally high, and significantly exceeds the valuation level of corresponding industries.
Specifically, the median earnings ratio of the stock market with concentrated positions of more than 1000 institutions is close to 61 times, the median earnings ratio of the corresponding industry is less than 35 times, the median earnings ratio of the stock market with concentrated positions of 300 to 500 institutions is close to 42 times, and the median earnings ratio of the corresponding industry is less than 30 times. At the same time, the valuation of individual stocks with a small number of shareholding institutions is relatively low.
poor performance growth
In the view of investors, the above three reasons do not seem to be enough to explain why the concentrated positions of many institutions have retreated sharply. In the history of A-share, there have been many callback of concentrated positions of institutions, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that when the performance of listed companies declines and the performance growth cannot support excessive valuation due to changes in external factors and macro environment, the concentrated positions of multiple institutions will be adjusted or reduced by institutions.
Taking history as a mirror, according to the withdrawal of concentrated position shares of many institutions after the Spring Festival in 2021, the net profit of concentrated position shares of more than 1000 institutions (taking the data of the third quarterly report in 2020) increased by less than 20% in 2020, and the average net profit of concentrated position shares of 500 to 1000 institutions increased by 22.6% in the same period. The average increase in net profit of 100300 and 50-100 institutions' concentrated position shares in 2020 was more than 45%, the average increase in net profit in 2021 was more than 250%, and the increase in net profit of more than 500 institutions' concentrated position shares.
small and medium cap stocks at this stage or safer
From the above multi-dimensional data analysis, it can be seen that the large market value stocks with concentrated positions of multiple institutions have a certain pullback. On the one hand, it is the need of institutional position adjustment, on the other hand, the fundamentals of concentrated positions of multiple institutions affect the future performance.
It is undeniable that stocks held by multiple institutions are usually high-quality stocks in the market. These high-quality stocks, relying on their own competitiveness, have achieved steady growth in performance and continuously set new highs in share prices. Looking back at the historical trend, the process of continuous record high of stock price is not plain sailing China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that those stocks with low value, high revenue capacity and high beta (risk-free return) can avoid potential risks. According to the above analysis, small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks are safer.
According to the above conditions and the latest data, in the past 24 months, the beta value is higher than the industry average, there are more than 100 shareholding institutions, the P / E ratio is less than 50 times, and there are only 12 stocks with a net profit increase of more than 30% in 2021 (including the median) and the institution's prediction of a net profit increase of more than 30% in 2022. The return on net assets of these 12 stocks in the third quarterly report of 2021 is more than 10%, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) and other stocks accounted for more than 30%.
In terms of market performance, 12 stocks have risen by an average of 1% since the Spring Festival, China stock market news and Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) have fallen by more than 5%, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) have bucked the trend by more than 10%, and the number of shareholding institutions of the two stocks has exceeded 230. Five stock markets are worth less than 100 billion, namely Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , satellite chemistry and Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) .
