A plate with high hopes by the market collapsed!
This afternoon, the power sector suddenly collapsed. Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) with a market value of more than 200 billion once collapsed and fell to the limit, Shenyang Jinshan Energy Co.Ltd(600396) touched the limit, Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial Co.Ltd(600452) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) followed. During the period, a statement by a securities analyst brushed the screen: photovoltaic replaces administrative promotion in a market-oriented way. At present, the biggest impact will be the distribution network investment of the power grid. It is expected that the distribution network investment will fall from 1.7 trillion to 1.5 trillion, which is still being calculated. but the relevant person in charge of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) Research Institute said: Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) has paid attention to the rumors about distribution network investment widely spread in the market. This view is not the view of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) Research Institute.
On December 21, 2021, the National Energy Administration revised and issued the regulations on the management of power grid connected operation, and revised the Interim Measures for the management of auxiliary services of grid connected power plants (Dian Jian Shi Chang [2006] No. 43) and changed its name to the measures for the management of power auxiliary services. Some research institutions believe that enterprises with power grid project experience and high EMS performance and operation capacity are expected to obtain excess returns. The new demand for power grid end in auxiliary service trading market is mainly concentrated on the software side, which should be paid special attention to by these industries. It can be said that the market is full of expectations for the performance of electricity in 2022.
From the perspective of market structure, hydrogen energy is the best performing sector today. Several stocks have a trading limit, and the hydrogen energy index has increased by more than 2% at the most. So, what is good to stimulate this plate
the most promising plate collapsed
After the central economic work conference, the expectation of the power sector is gradually heating up, and the market has high expectations for power investment in 2022. Anxin securities has said that the distribution network side is an important link in the “14th five year plan” power grid investment. With the implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutralization goals, the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation continues to grow. With the large proportion of new energy access, the demand for power grid investment and construction will remain high. In addition, with the continuous strengthening of the backbone grid, microgrid and distributed energy system relying on distributed new energy power generation, integrated energy management optimization also have great development potential. During the “14th five year plan” period, the power grid investment is expected to remain high, with emphasis on the distribution network side.
However, this plate collapsed today. The Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) with a market value of more than 200 billion once burst the limit, Shenyang Jinshan Energy Co.Ltd(600396) hit the limit, and individual stocks such as Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial Co.Ltd(600452) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) fell with it.
So, what bad happened to make the whole plate dive in the afternoon? From the news side, it is mainly a rumor that has affected the disk. At noon today, an analyst of a securities firm brushed the screen: photovoltaic replaces administrative promotion in a market-oriented way. At present, the greatest impact will be the distribution network investment of the power grid. It is expected that the distribution network investment will fall from 1.7 trillion to 1.5 trillion, which is still being calculated. However, subsequent news came out that this was an online rumor, not sent by the analyst.
The analyst once said that we should re understand China’s “coal dominated” energy pattern, vigorously develop supporting power (thermal power) and prevent the impact of power rationing. Scientifically promote the development of new energy, replace administrative promotion with market-oriented way, and emphasize planning. Distributed photovoltaic replaces “whole county promotion” with market-oriented development. Firstly, the development of the whole county is unfavorable, and secondly, it is easy to form monopoly, which is unfavorable to market-oriented and fair competition.
So, what is the truth? Zhu Yue, a new researcher of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Dianxin, said that there was no marginal change in the overall idea, development mode, overall rhythm, policy document orientation and previous development of distributed photovoltaic. “Do not promote the whole county without distributed photovoltaic” is judged to be a rumor. The state has firm confidence in the development of new energy. In the process, we should do a good job in competition, non monopoly and non suspension of work. In the near future, we will continue to correct the deviation in stopping the filing of distributed photovoltaic.
It is estimated that the overall volume of distributed photovoltaic in the next few years will be about 25gw, including 17-18gw for household use and about 8GW for distributed industry and commerce. The growth rate next year is about 50% – 100%. Power grid investment should dilute the total amount and pay attention to the structure. The overall national power grid investment in the 14th five year plan is about 2.3-2.5 trillion, with a comprehensive growth rate of 10% – 15%. Distribution network, secondary, digital transformation and DC transmission are the structural focus. Maintaining the view does not change, and it is nonsense to launch the change of power grid investment from distributed.
The relevant person in charge of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) Research Institute said: Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) has paid attention to the rumors about distribution network investment widely spread in the market. This view is not the view of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) Research Institute.
Guojin Research Institute believes that the establishment and implementation of green power trading mechanism can greatly improve the investment enthusiasm of operators by effectively improving the rate of return, and (can) hedge the operation risk of high cost of investment or purchasing peak shaving capacity, so as to vigorously promote the rapid development of new energy.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) the Institute has established and improved the quality control mechanism and compliance review mechanism in strict accordance with the requirements of the code of practice for publishing securities research reports. All research reports shall be subject to quality audit by full-time quality auditors with securities analyst qualification before release, and compliance audit shall be conducted by full-time personnel. The approved research reports shall be uniformly sent to the contracting objects through the company’s platform.
Investors are requested to follow the Research Report uniformly issued by Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) Research Institute.
why is it good to stimulate hydrogen energy to rise again?
Structurally, there are still good opportunities on the disk today, and the biggest opportunity is hydrogen energy. Today, several stocks in this sector rose the limit, and continued to be active from the morning to the afternoon. Compared with the disk on Thursday and Friday, this sector also seems to be much stronger.
so, what factors stimulate the rise of hydrogen energy?
First of all, last Friday, Zhang Jianhua, Secretary of the Party group and director of the national energy administration, released seven key tasks for next year’s energy work. Among them, we will accelerate the tackling of key technical and equipment problems. We will focus on tackling key technical problems in key areas such as gas turbine, nuclear power, renewable energy, oil and gas, energy storage and hydrogen energy, and strive to make breakthroughs in green and low-carbon cutting-edge technologies. Vigorously carry out technological and industrial innovation. We will strive to build a standard system for carbon peaking and carbon neutralization in the energy field and promote digital technology innovation. Accelerate the application of 5g and blockchain in the energy field, promote the large-scale and market-oriented development of new energy storage, and explore a new development model of hydrogen energy and comprehensive intelligent energy services.
Secondly, the kick-off meeting of “leading the future of hydrogen energy and creating a double carbon era” Beijing Tianjin Hebei fuel cell vehicle demonstration city cluster was held in Daxing international hydrogen energy demonstration zone. It is understood that the Beijing Tianjin Hebei fuel cell vehicle demonstration city cluster is the first batch of fuel cell demonstration city clusters successfully approved in China. It will build a green energy community led by Beijing’s scientific and technological innovation. Several documents such as the implementation plan of Beijing Tianjin Hebei fuel cell vehicle demonstration city cluster (simplified version), the annual task plan of Beijing Tianjin Hebei fuel cell vehicle demonstration city cluster and the working mechanism of Beijing Tianjin Hebei fuel cell vehicle demonstration city cluster were also released at the same time.
Third, the market has been expecting that the top-level design of hydrogen energy will be announced. But so far, this expectation has not been fulfilled, but the technology of hydrogen energy has developed rapidly and the cost has fallen faster than expected. Electrolytic cell, proton exchange membrane and other core components have a trend of mass production, and the development of the industry is booming. It can be expected that this sector will also be an opportunity for funds to focus on in the future.
(Securities Times)
