On December 27, a rumor disturbed the A-share photovoltaic sector in the session. The share price of Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) (601877. SH), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (688599. SH), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459. SZ), Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) (601778. SH) fell sharply in the afternoon.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the trigger for some leading photovoltaic enterprises to suffer a “huge shock” in stock price came from the rumors about distributed photovoltaic in the industry. It is reported that, “The state will no longer promote the whole county, because the biggest impact at present comes from the distribution network investment of the power grid. It is expected that the distribution network investment will be reduced from 170 million yuan to 150 million yuan. The details are still being calculated.”
This short message implies two messages: “the promotion of the whole county is stagnant” and “distribution network investment will decline”. Once the news is true, it will greatly affect the installed capacity and new prospects of distributed photovoltaic in the industry. This year, a number of photovoltaic enterprises targeting China’s household market, including Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , were sought after by the capital market due to the favorable distributed photovoltaic policies such as “promotion of the whole county”.
In response to the above rumors, insiders quickly refuted the rumors. Some analysts said, “if you spread rumors, you will break your leg.”
In fact, the negative impact of the rumor on some photovoltaic enterprises can be seen from today’s intraday stock price shock. Take Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) as an example, the company once fell to the limit in the session, and the total market value fell below 100 billion yuan. As of the closing on December 27, the company’s share price closed at 49.25 yuan / share, down 2.07%, with a market value of 105.9 billion yuan.
brokers are busy refuting rumors
In response to the intraday rumors, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Dianxin analyst Zhu Yue took the lead in responding, pointing out that “do not engage in distributed photovoltaic, promote the whole county” is likely to be a rumor.
“The state has firm confidence in the development of new energy. In the process, we should do a good job in competition, non monopoly and non suspension of work. In the near future, we will continue to correct the deviation in stopping the filing of distributed photovoltaic.” The analyst estimates that the overall volume of distributed photovoltaic is about 25gw each year, including 17-18gw for household use and about 8GW for distributed industrial and commercial projects, and the growth rate of power grid investment next year is about 50% to 100%.
Subsequently, Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) power new team also refuted the rumor, “according to the relevant statements we have learned, the national household and distributed promotion are still advancing rapidly.”
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that on December 27, in response to the above rumors released by an analyst of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) spread in today’s market, the relevant person in charge of the institution said that this view is not the view of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) Research Institute.
In fact, although the A-share photovoltaic sector rebounded after a rumor refutation, under the market’s suspicion of policy changes, the new installed capacity of China’s photovoltaic industry during the year is less than expected, or will become a reality.
However, in view of the promotion of distributed photovoltaic, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that various national ministries and commissions have mentioned the expected objectives on various occasions this year.
In November this year, the four ministries and commissions of the state jointly issued the implementation plan for deepening the green and low-carbon leading action of public institutions to promote carbon peak. It is proposed that by 2025, the installable photovoltaic roof area of new buildings of public institutions will strive to achieve photovoltaic coverage of 50%.
In the previous October, the action plan for carbon peak before 2030 issued by the State Council mentioned that by 2025, the renewable energy substitution rate of urban buildings will reach 8%, and the roof photovoltaic coverage rate of new public institution buildings and new plants will strive to reach 50%; In September, ten ministries and commissions including the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of natural resources issued the notice on printing and distributing guidelines for standardized and healthy development of national characteristic towns, which mentioned that roof distributed photovoltaic development can be carried out if conditions permit; In June, the notice on submitting the pilot scheme of roof distributed photovoltaic development in the whole county (city, district) issued by the National Energy Administration mentioned that integrating resources to achieve intensive development, and a total of 676 pilot projects were declared in 31 provinces across the country.
In addition, Jiangxi, Shanghai, Beijing, Shanxi, Zhejiang, Wenzhou and other places have also launched distributed photovoltaic targets for the future, including building integration. For example, Wenzhou proposes that by 2023, the proportion of distributed photovoltaic installed in new industrial plants will reach 100%; Jiangxi stipulates that by the end of 2024, the roof photovoltaic power generation coverage with development conditions in the provincial development zones will reach more than 80%.
It is worth mentioning that the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the time of use price mechanism, which mentioned that “expanding the peak valley price difference is conducive to the development of industrial and commercial distributed block photovoltaic.” This is also regarded as a favorable policy in the industry – the generation time of industrial and commercial distributed PV coincides with the power consumption time.
“100 billion market value club” almost lost staff
To be sure, stimulated by the “double carbon” goal, photovoltaic and other new energy industries have become the core track and are popular in the capital market. Among them, the photovoltaic sector, together with lithium batteries and chips, is called the “three most profitable swordsmen” in the capital market in 2021, and a number of enterprises with a market value of 100 billion have emerged.
As of December 27, the photovoltaic index (884045. WI) has increased by 56.03% this year. Over the same period, the CSI 300 index fell 5.60%.
During this period, 12 photovoltaic concept stocks such as Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) (688516. SH), Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481. SH) increased by more than 100%. Among them, the share price of Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) photovoltaic module head enterprise increased the most, 222.29%; Photovoltaic equipment manufacturer Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) followed with an increase of 187%, while photovoltaic silicon “upstart” Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) ranked third with a share price increase of 154%. In addition, other well-known photovoltaic enterprises such as Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (300763. SZ), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) (300316. SZ) increased by more than 120%.
In terms of market value, as of December 27, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012. SH), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (3000274. SZ), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438. SH), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) (002129. SZ), Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) (688303. SH), Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (603806. SZ) and Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (601865. SH) had a market value of more than 100 billion yuan. In 2020, only Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) will have a market value of more than 100 billion.
It is worth mentioning that with the popularity of A-share photovoltaic sector by funds, more and more zhonggai shares began to return to A-share. This year, component giants such as Jingke energy and Atlas Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) have successfully held a meeting on the science and innovation board, and a share is about to stage a grand competition among the world’s five component giants.
However, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that although many 100 billion market value photovoltaic companies have been born in A-Shares this year. But behind the aura, there is a faint bubble.
As of December 27, the market value of Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) and Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) (600089. SH), once the “100 billion market value club”, has decreased to 87.5 billion yuan and 77.1 billion yuan respectively.
In this rumor, Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) intraday stock price once fell to 45.26 yuan / share, with a market value of 97.3 billion yuan. As of the closing on December 27, the company’s share price rebounded and its market value returned to above 100 billion yuan.
(21st Century Business Herald)
