[focus today]
On the 26th, the world and China Energy Outlook (2021) released by the Petrochina Company Limited(601857) Institute of economics and technology pointed out that under the “double carbon” goal, as a “stabilizer” to support the large-scale utilization of renewable energy, natural gas will play a prominent role in promoting China’s clean energy transformation and ensuring energy security. It is expected that China’s natural gas consumption will peak around 2040, with a peak level of about 650 billion cubic meters, twice the current consumption level.
National Energy Administration: it is estimated that the annual crude oil output in 2021 will be 199 million tons
National Energy Administration: it is estimated that the installed capacity of renewable energy will exceed 1 billion kw in 2021
the grid connected capacity of “Fengguang” power generation in Shandong has exceeded 50 million KW
crude oil: Russia said that next year’s crude oil production may increase to the pre epidemic level. With the advent of the festival and light market trading, the international oil price fell slightly on the 24th. Crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange are closed due to the Christmas holiday and have no settlement price; London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in February 2022 fell by US $0.71 to close at US $76.14, a decrease of about 0.92%.
Chart: international crude oil futures price trend (unit: USD / barrel)
refined oil: China’s wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel show that on December 24, China’s wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel “fell and firewood rose”. The average wholesale price of national 92# gasoline was 7839 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton from the previous day; The average wholesale price of diesel (including low pour point) was 7485 yuan / ton, up 3 yuan / ton from the previous day. In terms of the overall market situation of the day, the international oil price rose on the 23rd, which was significantly boosted by the news. However, affected by the epidemic situation in some parts of China, the terminal demand was weak and the purchase and sales atmosphere was light.
Chart: change rate of package crude oil price in this cycle
coal: the coal market is weak. In terms of origin, downstream users have low purchase enthusiasm, the coal sales in Yulin area are reduced, the site coal storage is increased, and the coal shipment in Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) area is general. In terms of ports, the market continues the downward trend, the coal inventory level of power plants is high, the signing of a new agreement is approaching, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. On the 27th, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 5.1 million tons, a decrease of 20000 tons compared with the previous day.
Chart: coal inventory of Qinhuangdao port (unit: 10000 tons)
[highlights perspective]
National Energy Administration: it is estimated that the annual crude oil output will be 199 million tons in 2021. at the 2022 national energy work conference held on the afternoon of 24, the National Energy Administration pointed out that the annual crude oil output is expected to be 199 million tons, which has rebounded for three consecutive years, the natural gas output is about 206 billion m3, the output has increased by more than 10 billion M3 for five consecutive years, the shale oil output is 2.4 million tons, the shale gas output is 23 billion m3, and the utilization of coalbed methane is 7.7 billion m3, which continues to maintain a good growth momentum.
National Energy Administration: it is estimated that the installed capacity of renewable energy will exceed 1 billion kw in 2021. at the 2022 national energy work conference held on the afternoon of 24, the National Energy Administration pointed out that it is expected that the annual installed capacity of renewable energy power generation will historically exceed 1 billion kw, the installed capacity of hydropower and wind power will exceed 300 million KW, the installed capacity of offshore wind power will leap to the first in the world, and the annual power generation of new energy will exceed 1 trillion kwh for the first time, continuing to maintain its leading edge.
the grid connected capacity of “Fengguang” power generation in Shandong has exceeded 50 million KW. on December 25, with the grid connected power generation of Yingli Hengyuan photovoltaic power station phase II project in Weifang City, Shandong Province, the grid connected wind power and photovoltaic power generation capacity of Shandong power grid exceeded 50 million KW, reaching 50.48 million KW, accounting for 29.69% of the installed capacity of the province. According to the State Grid Shandong electric power data, at present, there are 218 grid connected wind farms in Shandong, with an installed capacity of 19.01 million KW, a photovoltaic power generation project capacity of 31.47 million KW, and an annual new energy utilization rate of 98.6%.
[intelligence overview]
On the 27th, it was learned from Petrochina Company Limited(601857) Natural Gas Group Co., Ltd. Petrochina Company Limited(601857) that the equivalent of oil and gas production in 2021 is expected to exceed 210 million tons, and the crude oil production will continue to grow for three years; Natural gas accounts for 51.4% of oil and gas production equivalent, and the foundation for stabilizing oil and increasing gas is further consolidated.
With the strong attack of a new round of cold wave at the end of the year, China has ushered in a wide range of strong rain, snow, gale and cooling weather, and the demand for natural gas has increased rapidly. China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) fully guarantee the gas supply to the market in the supply area. On December 25, the daily supply of natural gas reached 241 million cubic meters, a record high.
“National pipeline network” WeChat official account, in December 25th, the national pipeline network 48 thousand and 200 km natural gas pipeline daily transmission volume exceeded 800 million cubic meters, accounting for 60% of China’s total gas supply, exceeding the 766 million peak of the previous heating season, and refreshing the new record of China’s main gas pipeline network.
It was learned from the state grid that the Nanchang Changsha 1000 kV high voltage AC project was officially put into operation on the 26th. The project is the first UHV power transmission and transformation project started in China during the 14th Five Year Plan period, setting a new record that it took only 10 months from commencement to completion. The project realizes the direct interconnection between Jiangxi and Hunan power grids through 1000 kV high-voltage backbone grid, which is of great significance to improve the external power receiving capacity and safety and stability level of Jiangxi Hunan power grid, enhance the optimal allocation capacity of energy resources in Central China, ensure the reliable supply of power, and implement the development strategy of the Yangtze River economic belt.
On the 27th, the real-time LNG import arrival data released by China natural gas information terminal (E-Gas system) showed that in the week from December 20 to December 26, China imported 24 LNG ships through coastal LNG terminals, with an import volume of about 1.77 million tons.
(Xinhua Finance)
