Now, playing new has long been a technical job, and some investors have come up with a “good way”.
Yesterday’s article “trembling after winning a new share! How can we happily speculate in stocks?” After the release, some fans left a message to DAGO, saying: call first and consider it in case of winning. Look at the stock price and the P / E ratio of the issue, which are higher than 50. You can basically give up.
The dagota new observer mission believes that this method has certain risks. According to the rules, if you give up payment three times within one year, you can’t participate in the new promotion within half a year. When you win a new share, you can’t be too casual when considering whether to pay or not. If you choose the wrong new share, it’s easy to step on the thunder and lose thousands or tens of thousands of dollars, so you might as well have a look at the articles on playing the new equation.
The oil and water of new shares is less and less now. A total of three new shares were listed this week, namely Hongying intelligent, Han’s CNC and Kaide quartz. On the first day of listing, new shares of Han’s CNC on GEM broke directly, with a decline of 13.58% on the same day; On the first day of listing, Kaide quartz, a new share of the Beijing stock exchange, rose only 1.90%, almost falling below the issue price. Especially Han CNC, the company’s issuing price is 76.56 yuan, the first signing needs to pay 38280 yuan, and the closing loss reached 5200 yuan. Such a large loss has left new investors with lingering fear.
Next week, the subscription of new shares will usher in a peak period. At that time, there will be 12 new shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen market, of which only one new share on Shenzhen main board and the remaining 11 new shares on science and innovation board and gem.
The new shares to be purchased next Monday include Geling Shentong and Sri Xincai. Today, the DAGO new observer group would like to focus on Geling Shentong, a loss making stock with an issue price of nearly 40 yuan. DAGO’s new observation group wants to analyze it carefully: is it really hard goods or the courage given by Liang Jingru that the issue price is still so high after several years of losses?
Basic data:
Geling Shentong was founded in 2013. Its main business income mainly comes from three fields: urban management, smart finance and commercial retail. It provides customers with AI products and solutions with computer vision technology and big data analysis technology as the core competence. The price of this issuance of the company is 39.49 yuan / share, and the number of shares issued is no more than 462452 million. After the issuance, the total share capital is about 185 million shares, which will be listed on the science and innovation board, with Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) as the main underwriter. The market value of this offering was 7.305 billion yuan.
From 2018 to 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Geling Shentong was – 70 million yuan, – 414 million yuan, – 78 million yuan and – 68 million yuan respectively, and the revenue was 52 million yuan, 71 million yuan, 243 million yuan and 294 million yuan respectively. DAGO Da Xin observation group noted that in recent years, the company has been in a state of loss, but the amount of loss in the last two years has gradually decreased, and there is the possibility of turning losses into profits in the future.
At the beginning of its establishment, the company was highly expected by venture capital and its popularity was comparable to leading companies such as Shangtang technology. At that time, the company boasted that “Harvard graduates can only be interns in the company”. However, in recent years, whether it is revenue or profit, Geling Shentong has fallen out of the first tier. Despite annual losses, the company’s R & D is not stingy at all. From 2019 to 2021, the R & D investment of Geling Shentong was 96 million yuan, 114 million yuan and 121 million yuan respectively, accounting for 135%, 46.9% and 41% of the current revenue respectively.
Industry situation:
In the field of computer vision where the company is located, the current market scale exceeds 60 billion yuan, but there are more than 4000 large and small companies. The industry has long been a red sea and the competition is very fierce. In front of the company are not only the AI “four little dragons” such as Shangtang technology, but also the competition from AI enterprises, such as Kuangshi technology and Yuncong technology, as well as the competition from traditional hardware manufacturers and many technology giants. Therefore, the company’s business model is not necessarily excellent.
The prospectus shows that the company belongs to the software and information technology service industry. In the long run, the artificial intelligence industry has become a must for a large country and will lead a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform in the future. With the gradual improvement of 5g and other facilities and the deep integration of artificial intelligence and big data, Geling deep pupil still has a certain point in the long term. However, at present, DAGO’s new observation mission believes that the annual loss performance and extremely unstable cash flow may make it difficult for the company to be favored in the capital market.
Valuation comparison:
Geling Shentong has comparable companies in the industry, including Arcsoft Corporation Limited(688088) , Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co.Ltd(688039) , Yuncong technology, Yuntian lifeI and Kuangshi technology. Among them, only Arcsoft Corporation Limited(688088) and Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co.Ltd(688039) have data to check. As of the closing on March 4, the dynamic price earnings ratios (ttms) of the two companies were 81.82 times and 41.72 times respectively, with an average dynamic price earnings ratio of 61.77 times. The company’s software and information technology service industry closed at an average dynamic P / E ratio of 101.57 times on March 4. It can be seen that the company’s comparable companies and the valuation level of the industry are very high.
Due to the performance loss of the company in the latest reporting period, the P / E ratio is not comparable. It may be more objective to compare it with the P / B ratio. As of the closing on March 4, the price to book ratios of Arcsoft Corporation Limited(688088) and Hangzhou Arcvideo Technology Co.Ltd(688039) were 4.98 times and 2.71 times respectively, with an average price to book ratio of 3.84 times; The average price to book ratio of software and information technology services is 8.06 times. Taking the issue price as the benchmark, the price to book ratio of Geling Shentong is as high as 8.87 times, which is not only higher than the price to book ratio of comparable companies, but also higher than the price to book ratio standard of the industry.
Market sentiment:
Geling deep pupil landed on the scientific innovation board. Let’s take the Kechuang 50 index as an example. In the last five trading days, the Kechuang 50 index fell 3.54%; Software and information technology services fell 0.95% in the last five trading days. It can be seen that the recent market heat of the company’s industry sector and index is not too high, which also casts a shadow on the prospect of the company’s first day of listing.
On September 18 last year, the inquiry system for new shares was changed. By the end of February this year, a total of 106 stocks had been listed on the gem and the science and innovation board, of which 5 stocks were loss making stocks. Unfortunately, all of these 5 stocks broke, including the famous Baiji Shenzhou. It can be said that loss making companies ushered in a wave of breaking tide. Can Green’s deep pupil be the sixth one? We can only wait and see, but as usual, even if it doesn’t break on the first day, the next trend is worrying.
Final conclusion:
On the whole, Geling Shentong’s industry has a certain imagination space, but the business model is general. Although the loss range is decreasing, it is still in a loss period in the last two years. The market of science and technology innovation board is depressed, all loss making stocks have broken recently, and the price to book ratio of the company is also higher than the industry average.
At present, DAGO Da Xin observation group has divided the new shares into three sections according to the breaking risk from small to large, namely comfort area, neutral area and cautious area. According to various indicators, Geling deep pupil should be classified into cautious area.
