Whenever summer wheat is harvested, whether to plant soybean or corn has become a multiple-choice question in front of Wang Han, a large grain grower in Anhui Province. He said that in terms of yield per mu, soybean is more than 700 kg worse than corn; In terms of income, the difference between them is about 600 yuan; In terms of net income, the difference between the two is about 400 yuan. "In the past, when the local government had subsidies, it also planted soybeans for two years. If there were no subsidies, it would not consider planting soybeans. Because compared with corn, the yield and income of the two were very different."
However, for Zhao Xu, there is no such choice. Zhao Xu served as the principal of Zhao Yujiu Soybean Planting Farmers' Professional Cooperative in Hailun city (hereinafter referred to as "Zhao Yujiu cooperative"). The cooperative was established in 2017. There are more than 10000 mu of Soybeans Planted in Haibei Town, hailun City, which are mainly produced by order, and the other party provides soybean varieties, which are planted according to the other party's standards. After the autumn harvest, the soybeans are collected according to the order. In addition to the agricultural subsidies related to soybeans given by the state to farmers, the income of Soybeans Planted by cooperatives is better than that of corn.
Large grain growers in different regions have different rational choices, which is actually the result of "land competition" between soybean and corn. In 2021, the corn output increased by 23.8 billion kg year-on-year, an increase of 4.6%; Correspondingly, soybean production decreased by 6.4 billion kg year-on-year, down 16.4%.
It was against this background that the central rural work conference was held in Beijing from December 25 to 26. The conference stressed "vigorously expand soybean and oil production".
On December 27, the meeting of directors of the national Department of agriculture and rural areas proposed to overcome difficulties and expand the planting of soybean oil. Take expanding soybean oil production as a major political task that must be completed next year, pay close attention to the recovery of soybean area in the four provinces and regions of Northeast China, support the promotion of corn soybean strip composite planting in the northwest, Huang Huai Hai, southwest and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, accelerate the promotion of new models and technologies, gradually promote the compatible development of soybean and corn, and pay close attention to the production of oilseeds such as rape and peanut Take multiple measures to expand area and increase yield.
economic account behind "land dispute
As early as 2011, Wang Han returned to Guzhen County, Bengbu City, Anhui Province, founded hongtongtong agricultural professional cooperative and served as the person in charge. After 10 years of development and growth, including more than 8000 mu of land just transferred this year, the planting scale of the cooperative has reached 20000 mu. Among them, about 13000 mu of land is entrusted to large local grain growers.
The cooperative is located in the Huang Huai Hai region. It has two seasons a year, one season of wheat and one season of corn or soybean. Wang Han said that if you plant soybeans, the real estate volume per mu is only 200 kg, 2 ~ 3 yuan per kg, which is 400 ~ 600 yuan; If you plant corn, the yield per mu will reach 900 kg, and if it is 1.2 yuan per kg, you can earn more than 1000 yuan; Besides the cost of more than 200 yuan of soybean and 350 yuan of corn, there is a "wide gap" between the two, with a difference of 300 ~ 400 yuan. This means that there must be subsidies for farmers to have the power to adjust the planting structure.
"There has been soybean rotation before, with a subsidy of 150 yuan per mu, which is somewhat low. If it is appropriately increased to 200 ~ 250 yuan, and the income per mu of corn and soybean can be reduced to 100 ~ 150 yuan, farmers may choose to plant soybean." Wang Han said.
Five years ago, Zhao Xu, introduced by an intermediary, realized that Beijing xiangdoudou Food Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Beijing Kaida Hengye Agricultural Technology Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Kaida Hengye"), which specializes in producing raw bean products such as fresh beancurd and golden rolls, and exports to more than 10 countries and regions such as Japan and South Korea all year round, has a large demand for non GM soybeans. Therefore, Zhao Yujiu cooperative carried out order cooperation with Kaida Hengye.
The soybean varieties planted by the cooperative are jointly developed by Kaida Hengye and scientific research institutes. By signing directional orders with the cooperative and receiving finished soybean products at protected prices, "cooperative farmers tend to plant soybeans, which not only provides a stable channel for cooperative farmers to increase their income, but also because of unified management, Kaida Hengye is relieved to use them." Zhao Xu said.
Soybean orders are the key to stabilizing soybean planting area and ensuring farmers' income. Zhao Xuzi has carefully calculated the economic accounts behind this. He said that in recent years, farmers who grow soybeans can earn tens of yuan per mu if the money for selling soybeans is good. If it is bad, they can take care of the cost. The main income is state subsidies, which is about 500 yuan per mu. In contrast, the net income from planting corn is only 400 yuan, and it is often affected by natural disasters.
Zhou Honglian, general manager of Beijing xiangdoudou Food Co., Ltd., told the first financial reporter that the protein content of soybeans produced in Hailun area of Heilongjiang Province is about 40% ~ 42% and the oil content is about 20%, which is one of the most high-quality production areas in China. Through the development of contract agriculture, we can expand the soybean planting area and stabilize the soybean purchase price, so as to reduce the procurement risk for soybean products processing enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises can survive and develop better, and large enterprises can also participate in more scientific research innovation and product development.
From the perspective of prolonging the time, there is obvious economic rationality behind the "land dispute" between soybean and corn. In terms of yield, the per mu yield of corn is significantly higher than that of soybean. The per mu yield of corn in Northeast China is 900 ~ 1200 kg, and the per mu yield of soybean is 240 ~ 340 kg.
From the perspective of income, in 2014, soybean cancelled the support market acquisition policy, and the price weakened. In contrast, in 2015, the net profit of corn planting in Northeast China was 200 ~ 300 yuan per ton. In 2016, the purchase policy of supporting the market for corn was cancelled, and a general loss of 100 ~ 200 yuan per mu of corn was planted. By 2020, the national corn price will soar, the corn planting benefit will soar to 500 ~ 600 yuan per mu, and the soybean planting income will be 300 yuan per mu.
In 2021, due to the increase of planting costs, including land rent, fertilizer and labor, the profit of corn planting decreased significantly, and the income may not catch up with that of soybean. For soybean, due to nitrogen fixation by Rhizobium, less chemical fertilizer and small cost increase, the income is generally about 400 yuan per mu.
adjust structure and expand soybean and oil production
In the total grain output in 2021, corn accounted for nearly 40% and soybean accounted for only 2.4%. Due to the long-term insufficient production and demand of soybeans and high external dependence, import has become the norm, and the net import has a history of 26 years. Soybean imports also increased from 1 million tons in 1995 to more than 100 million tons in 2020, an increase of 100 times in 25 years. At present, China's soybean imports account for 60% of the total global soybean trade. Taking 2020 as an example, the dependence on soybean imports will reach 83.7%.
In this context, in 2019, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas restarted the soybean revitalization plan and set the goal of "striving to reach 140 million mu of soybean planting area in China by 2020".
Subsequently, in 2020 and 2021, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas continued to implement the soybean revitalization plan and reaffirmed this goal. The sown area of soybean will be 140 million mu in 2019 and 148 million mu in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9% and 5.9% respectively.
However, by 2021, the sown area of soybean will be 126 million mu, a decrease of 22 million mu or 14.8% over the previous year.
At present, China's soybean market has formed two relatively independent markets for food and feed. Domestic non GM soybeans are mainly used for food, processed soybean products and soybean protein. Imported GM soybeans are mainly used to meet China's demand for vegetable oil and protein meal. 20% are processed into oil and 80% into soybean meal.
Egger agricultural oil analysis master Zhenzhen told the first financial reporter that relatively speaking, the unit yield of non GM soybeans in China is low and the planting cost is high. The oil yield of domestic soybeans is lower than that of foreign genetically modified soybeans. In addition, the transportation cost of soybeans sold to the coast in Heilongjiang, the main production area, is high, and the competitiveness of domestic soybeans in crushing is lower than that of imported soybeans. Domestic soybeans are mainly used for high protein food beans. Of course, some enterprises focus on non GM health brands to squeeze and sell non GM soybean oil.
The reason behind the central government's proposal to "expand soybean and oil production" is that China's edible oil is highly dependent on foreign countries. Soybean oil accounts for 50% of China's vegetable oil consumption, followed by palm oil, vegetable oil, peanut oil, cotton oil, sunflower seed oil, corn germ oil, etc. However, their external dependence is quite different.
Lin Guofa, research director of brick Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) jigou.com, told the first financial reporter that since the pressed soybean is imported genetically modified soybean, the import dependence of soybean oil is more than 90%. In addition, a large number of rapeseed are also imported. Taken together, China's external dependence on oil is close to 80%. In addition to palm oil, China's oil and grease are mainly imported from South America and Eastern Europe, with a high concentration of import sources. Appropriately reducing import dependence and improving China's self-sufficiency rate are conducive to ensuring oil supply in accordance with the.
He said that as a raw material of oil and protein, China's non GM soybeans are mainly used for various daily consumption of residents and food industry production. Ensure the production of domestic non GM soybeans, which can well meet the consumption of residents. From the perspective of oil, increasing the yield of rapeseed, peanut and sunflower seeds can effectively reduce the dependence on oil import. At the same time, reasonably reducing the crude protein content of feed is conducive to reducing the import demand of oil and protein, so as to reduce China's dependence on oil import.
However, from the perspective of cultivated land, according to China's current animal husbandry, food processing and residents' oil consumption, it is difficult for China's cultivated land to grow oil to meet the demand for oil and feed protein.
It is noteworthy that in recent years, in areas suitable for winter rapeseed planting, the land abandonment in winter is obvious, and the planting area shows a downward trend. Lin Guofa said that the main reason is the low planting income and the outflow of a large number of rural people. The demand for rapeseed oil extraction in traditional rural areas has decreased. In addition, in the areas where rapeseed is mainly planted, the land transfer is relatively weak, and the planting of rapeseed in sporadic plots is more obvious. According to the current situation, it is difficult to increase the planting area of rapeseed unless the land transfer is accelerated and mechanized into pieces.
(First Finance)
