The 10th China listed companies summit week hosted by the daily economic news was held online from December 20 to 24, 2021.
At the sub forum "2021 China investment value trend forum" of the summit forum, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) chief macroeconomic economist Gao Ruidong delivered a keynote speech, focusing on the interpretation of the central economic work conference. He said that with the great attention of the central government and the introduction of a series of policies, the economy is expected to stabilize and rebound in the first half of 2022.
the economy is expected to rebound in 2022
Gao Ruidong first made a detailed interpretation of the central economic work conference.
First of all, the central economic work conference clearly pointed out that at present, the economy is facing the triple impact of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation. The contraction of demand is reflected in the weak overall consumption, low growth rate of infrastructure and contraction of real estate under the epidemic, and the support of total demand is obviously insufficient. The supply shock not only comes from the rise in the price of overseas bulk commodities and the lack of parts in key industrial chains, but also from the increase in the cost of downstream manufacturers after the sharp rise in the prices of upstream bulk commodities and industrial products. In terms of weakening expectations, we see that the confidence of entrepreneurs, residents and consumers, and the growth expectations of major overseas international institutions for China's future economic growth have stabilized.
Gao Ruidong pointed out that in 2022, in the face of the above triple impact, we should stabilize the economic market and the overall social situation. Therefore, the central economic work conference clearly mentioned that all localities and departments should bear the responsibility of stabilizing economic growth, and appropriately advance the introduction of policies that can stabilize economic growth. In the subsequent interpretation of relevant departments, it was also mentioned that we should carefully introduce policies with contraction effect. It can be said that we have returned to the route of high-quality development and economic construction. This is the general tone of the economic work made by the Party Central Committee from top to bottom, that is, "stability takes the lead and progress in stability".
Gao Ruidong pointed out that in this context, with the great attention of the central government and the introduction of a series of policies, the economy is expected to stabilize and rebound in the first half of 2022.
monetary policy will focus on small, medium and micro enterprises
At the same time, Gao Ruidong elaborated the possible direction and path of future fiscal policy and monetary policy according to his study of the spirit of the central economic work conference.
He pointed out that the central economic work conference proposed, "The proactive fiscal policy should improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability. We should ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure and speed up the progress of expenditure. We should implement a new policy of tax reduction and fee reduction, strengthen support for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, manufacturing and risk resolution, moderately advance infrastructure investment... And resolutely curb the new implicit debt of local governments."
It can be inferred from this statement that the fiscal policy in 2022 will be more positive, with the overall characteristics of "front focus, precision and efficiency". The connotation of positive finance will change from the previous expansionary policy to promoting high-quality economic development.
At the same time, Gao Ruidong emphasized the statement of cross cycle advance of financial funds. There are expected to be three paths in the future: first, it is expected that the amount of new special bonds in 2022 will be issued in advance in 2021, and a new round of special bonds will be issued in the first quarter of 2022. Second, more than 700 billion yuan of new special bonds will be issued from November to December 2021, which is expected to form a physical workload in early 2022. Third, in 2021, there will be excess revenue and savings. It is expected that trillion funds will be reserved for use at the beginning of 2022.
Gao Ruidong predicted that monetary policy is expected to be slightly loose, and will focus on Financing increment, expansion and price reduction of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in the future. First, we will increase the amount of small re loans and provide targeted support to small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households that meet the basic conditions. Second, strengthen the implementation of inclusive small and micro credit loan support policies, vigorously promote the loan with loan with repayment model, and promote the formation of a long-term mechanism of daring to lend, willing to lend, able to lend and meeting loans. Third, further reduce the debt end cost of commercial banks, guide the decline of quotation interest rate in the loan market, and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs of small and micro enterprises. Fourth, guide financial institutions to carry out bill discount and standardized bill financing, and the people's Bank of China provides rediscount support to alleviate the pressure on small, medium-sized and micro enterprises.
Gao Ruidong pointed out that looking forward to the future, with the issuance of new special bonds in advance and the gradual recovery of capital demand of the real economy, there is the possibility of further RRR reduction or even targeted interest rate reduction in the future. The overall direction may be to stabilize aggregate demand through fiscal and monetary policies to promote steady progress in the overall macro-economy.
In addition, Gao Ruidong also mentioned that in the central economic work conference, traffic lights were set for capital to prevent the barbaric growth of capital; Based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy; Doing our best, doing what we can, and improving the public service policy and system have laid a very important foundation for the economic rebound and creating a good overall economic and social situation in the general direction, and also set the main tone for a better system concept and overall coordination.
monetary policy autonomy will be stronger
It is worth mentioning that Gao Ruidong also looked overseas and analyzed the possible impact of overseas market changes on China's economy under the influence of the overseas situation in 2022, especially the covid-19 epidemic.
He pointed out that a new variant of covid-19 virus Omicron was found in South Africa recently, which has spread to many countries around the world, and epidemic control measures have been tightened again. The slowdown in the opening up of major developed countries means that the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain will continue. In addition, Biden's $1.75 trillion budget coordination bill is still on the way. In fact, this bill will face greater resistance, and its scale may be further reduced, which means that the support of U.S. financial funds for the U.S. economy will also be weakened.
Gao Ruidong believes that looking forward, until the first half of 2022, the upward trend of energy and labor prices will continue to bring upward risks to inflation, and the upward trend of actual inflation will drive inflation expectations higher, putting upward pressure on US bond yields, which limits the downward space of US bond yields.
Overall, the low volatility of US Treasury bond yields is very beneficial to China's monetary policy, and China's monetary policy will be more flexible in cross cyclical autonomy. Combined with the overall spirit of the central economic work conference, monetary policy will be stable and loose in the future.
In addition, with regard to China US relations, Gao Ruidong pointed out that since October, there has been a substantial easing in China US economic and trade, but 2022 is the year of the US mid-term election, and China US relations may face some uncertainties. Overall, the financial market performance in 2022 will depend more on China's growth momentum. With the stabilization and recovery of economic fundamentals, it is believed that the performance of financial markets will also reflect the economic rebound.
(Daily Economic News)
