At the end of each year, the investment strategy trip of securities companies for the next year will always be started as usual.
At the previous China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) 2022 strategy meeting, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) global chief strategy analyst Zhang Yidong gave an interesting speech. The topic of the speech of the platinum analyst in the research field of new wealth aggregate economy was to find the power of self-confidence.
Who is not confident? Why not be confident? How to find the power of self-confidence? With these doubts, the reporter of the daily economic news interviewed Zhang Yidong, the global chief strategic analyst of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) .
"Mr. market" is often not confident
When the world was hit by the epidemic, China's economic landscape was good, and China's exports frequently exceeded the market's previous expectations. However, at the recent central economic work conference, high-level concerns about the pressure of economic slowdown were revealed, and steady growth became the focus of work in the next year.
China's economy has passed the era of rapid growth after the epidemic and economic recovery. Will the pace of economic recovery evolve, resulting in self-confidence?
Zhang Yidong gave his own judgment. He told the reporter of the daily economic news: "The opposite of self-confidence is confusion and lack of self-confidence. At this stage, in 2022, and even for a longer time in the future, we will be in a 'great change' that has never happened in a century. The tree wants to be quiet but the wind does not stop. The frequent occurrence of global political and economic variables has become the norm. This has led to the failure of many experiences and laws in the past 'globalization dividend period', and investors are easy to get lost in the 'macro' View narration '. If we can't grasp the main contradiction in the medium and long term, investors will inevitably get lost in various policies and macro expectations in the environment of economic slowdown. "
In Zhang Yidong's view, there may be two extremes in the macro expectation in 2022. One end is blindly optimistic about the "big stimulus" of macro policies, and the other end is overly pessimistic about "possible systemic risks overseas and China's economic slowdown". Mr. market is often not confident and emotionally unstable.
based on the medium and long-term trend
It turns out that this lack of confidence comes from the prediction of market performance in 2022.
In fact, since 2021, after the outbreak of cyclical stock market cooling, the market seems to have been looking for the next "backbone" leading the market. A-Shares are more like a relay race of "rising today and falling tomorrow".
If we can regard this hot and scattered performance as a kind of not confident expression, how should we find the power of self-confidence?
Zhang Yidong tried to prescribe a prescription: we should distinguish short-term policies and grasp the main contradictions in the medium and long term, so that we don't have to fluctuate with the short-term K-line when investing, but based on the medium and long-term trend, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages and improve the success rate of investment.
What ingredients should be added to the total prescription?
In Zhang Yidong's view, first of all, there is no need to worry that the US interest rate hike next year will lead to a big bear market in US stocks, which will affect the systemic risk of Chinese Hong Kong stocks and a shares. In 2022, policy changes such as the exit of U.S. stimulus policy, interest rate increase and new variables in China US relations will lead to fluctuations in U.S. stocks and global stock markets. However, the impact of overseas market adjustment on China's high-quality assets is a "diving", which is just a good opportunity for layout. In the early stage of interest rate hike in the United States, the risk-free rate of return in the United States was still low, and the risk of U.S. stocks was small; In the late stage of interest rate hike, the risk-free rate of return increased significantly, and U.S. stocks made a big adjustment, similar to 2008 or 2001.
"We judge that the U.S. long-term interest rate will remain low throughout 2022, and there is little room for more than 2%. In 2022, the United States will have high inflation and is expected to raise interest rates, but it is difficult to raise interest rates continuously and start the cycle of raising interest rates. On the one hand, with the recovery of the supply chain, the inflationary pressure in the United States will ease in the second half of next year, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates will also cool down. On the other hand, the current high debt rate in the United States is clear The mid-term election year in the United States also requires that the economy should not be too bad. Therefore, the low long-term interest rate has dual demands of politics and economy. " Zhang Yidong pointed out.
Secondly, we should not be overly pessimistic or blindly optimistic about China's macro economy. The spirit of the recent central economic work conference is "stable", which is worthy of careful study and understanding by investors. The economy will stabilize in 2022, and the monetary environment will be loose. The long-term bond interest rate is expected to decline with the slowdown of economic transformation, rather than following the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
Zhang Yidong believes that in 2022, China will not follow the old path of big water release and big stimulus, but broaden currency, stabilize credit and structurally broaden credit. Because it is an active choice for China's economy to return to the center of medium and long-term sustainable and low growth rate. In the new era of implementing the "double carbon" strategy and common prosperity in the coming decades, China will more actively promote high-quality and sustainable economic development and will not easily follow the old road of stimulating real estate, high-energy consumption industries and traditional infrastructure.
Therefore, looking for confidence in investing in China's stock market in 2022 should at least include not being panicked by fluctuations in overseas markets and not being overjoyed and saddened by the inconsistency between the pace of China's loose policies and market expectations. On the contrary, stock market confidence should be firmly rooted in China's dual cycle development, common prosperity and low-carbon green and high-quality development, Based on the structural market of science and innovation.
Hong Kong stocks are a little sunny
In 2021, Hong Kong stocks once again ranked among the worst returns of global assets in the year. Education stocks, which are used to being sought after by funds, continued to fall deeply under the double reduction policy.
Hong Kong stock market twists and turns, the first quarter is a typical bull market, momentum like a rainbow; The second quarter was a volatile market, with structural opportunities; In the second half of the year, Hong Kong stocks were a rare bear market. Various regulatory policy changes also had some impact on the weight plates of major Hong Kong stock indexes. First, the combination of regulatory policies in industries such as the Internet and education, and then the risk of real estate default. Then, the United States promoted the foreign company Accountability Act. Towards the end of the year, it encountered the hawkish trend of U.S. monetary policy. In 2021, Hong Kong stocks made a good start, but fell heavily on the way. Unfortunately, the backbone was broken - the fundamentals and valuation logic of the Internet were overturned.
Zhang Yidong predicts that the core idea of Hong Kong stock investment in 2022 is deep rebound and mean return, because Hong Kong stocks are fully hit by various negative factors in the second half of 2021, and cauliflower also has spring. In 2022, the Hong Kong stock market will be "a little sunny", and it is expected to have a "technical calf market" with a deep decline and a rebound of 15% ~ 20%.
Although Hong Kong stocks have experienced a downturn in 2021, the market is more optimistic about their prediction for 2022. Zhang Yidong believes that the reasons for this optimism stem from four aspects:
First of all, although the US interest rate hike and the US stock adjustment "city gate fire" will certainly affect emerging markets, and although Hong Kong stocks are not spared in stages, the decline in overseas markets has instead become an opportunity to attract funds to reallocate Hong Kong stocks.
Secondly, with the mitigation of mainland real estate risk in 2022, the valuation of domestic real estate stocks and mainland financial stocks in the HSI is expected to be repaired, which will help promote the rebound of the HSI.
Moreover, in 2022, the industrial policy environment of the Internet will be improved and the configuration attraction will be enhanced. As the mainstay of Hong Kong stocks, the valuation of the Internet collapsed in 2021, but it "developed in norms" in 2022. In the short term, the overall valuation cost performance of the Internet sector highlights its value in terms of vertical and horizontal global benchmarking. By benchmarking with American Internet companies and comparing the net profits CAGR and PE in the next three years, Chinese Internet companies have a strong overall cost performance.
Finally, other heavyweights in the Hang Seng Index, especially local stocks in Hong Kong and Macao, are also expected to usher in a restorative rise.
As for the high-quality investment varieties of Hong Kong stocks after the crash, Zhang Yidong believes that looking forward to the longer-term future, the layout of Hong Kong stocks should be based on the deterministic growth direction of China's economy, industry and finance, and it is best to be a company dominated by Chinese funds. In areas related to low-carbon technology, "smart alliance of all things", high-end manufacturing, emerging consumption and life technology, the Hong Kong stock market will closely follow the trend of A-Shares and US stocks. Among them, high-quality companies with unique and scarce Hong Kong stocks will be favored by global funds for a long time.
In 2021, Vietnam and India's stock markets, relevant indexes won a bright rise. The fund products launched by institutions have also attracted the participation and attention of investors. So can these emerging markets continue to prosper in 2022?
"We are not optimistic about emerging markets such as India and Vietnam that performed well in 2021 in 2022. The structural opportunities of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares in 2022 should be stronger than these emerging markets." Zhang Yidong said frankly.
According to Zhang Yidong's analysis, first of all, we need to be careful that under the expectation of interest rate increase in the United States, the three kills of foreign exchange, stock market and bond market like Turkey are staged in other emerging markets. In 2021, the Federal Reserve delayed in implementing the normalization of monetary policy, and the liquidity of emerging markets was loose. At the same time, because China's monetary policy took the lead in normalization in a forward-looking manner and superimposed China to resolve stock risks, some overseas funds shifted from Hong Kong shares or even A-Shares to other emerging markets. In 2022, the wind direction is reversed. In the face of high inflation, the U.S. monetary policy begins to shrink, and most emerging markets will follow up. However, China is stabilizing the economy and broadening the currency. Therefore, overseas funds are expected to shift from other emerging markets to allocating Chinese assets.
Secondly, in 2022, the U.S. economic growth will decline, but the strong dollar is expected to remain, which is often not conducive to commodities and most emerging markets. After the middle of 2021, with the gradual clarification of the taper path of the Federal Reserve, the yield of two-year US bonds has gradually increased. The expansion of the two-year interest rate gap between the United States and Germany has led to the strengthening of the US dollar index. With the gradual completion of taper, the interest rate increase schedule is expected to be imminent, and the short-term interest rate will continue to rise. This trend will continue until before and after the first interest rate increase in 2022.
Finally, in 2022, U.S. stocks will be a volatile market, or even a weak volatile market. The "city gate fire" of U.S. stocks will certainly affect emerging markets.
grasp the opportunity of common prosperity in five directions
In 2021, common prosperity is often on the hot list, and its connotation is gradually enriched. A broad consensus has been reached that the policy of common prosperity will have a long-term and far-reaching impact on China's economic development.
In the pursuit of high-quality economic development, how to understand common prosperity and guide investment?
Zhang Yidong believes that in the post epidemic era, facing the great changes not seen in a century, the pressure of the ebb tide of demographic dividend and the internal and external constraints of low-carbon green development, China's adherence to common prosperity is the need of the times. In addition, common prosperity is reflected in the orientation of industrial regulatory policies. On the one hand, it is conducive to social stability by preventing disorderly expansion of capital, anti-monopoly and anti lying win, preventing the negative atmosphere and anxiety of "lying flat" in society, and optimizing income distribution; On the other hand, we should encourage scientific and technological innovation, encourage specialized and new "little giants" and the great development of advanced manufacturing industry, so as to promote China's high-quality development.
From the perspective of investment, Zhang Yidong suggested to grasp the opportunities brought by the common prosperity policy from the following five directions:
First, green development, focusing on the addition of double carbon, embracing the energy revolution and the Low-carbon Science and technology revolution. Including clean energy (hydrogen energy, wind solar nuclear, etc.), power grid construction (especially the construction of intelligent and digital new power system), energy storage, low-carbon environmental protection and new energy vehicles.
Second, the speed of new infrastructure construction is accelerated, and all things Zhilian industrial chain represented by digital economy and meta universe industrial chain.
Third, encourage self-control, specialization and innovation. Specific opportunities are in advanced manufacturing industries such as military industry, semiconductors and new materials, especially opportunities to "make up for weaknesses" and prevent "neck sticking".
Fourth, regional coordinated development and new urbanization, such as smart city, agricultural modernization (with special attention to seeds and modern planting industry), etc.
Fifth, further promote consumption and pay attention to new energy vehicles, smart appliances, furniture and consumer electronics.
From a global perspective, we have to face the question: who will have more opportunities for A-Shares and U.S. stocks in 2022? Who is more valuable for configuration?
Zhang Yidong believes that in 2022, the index will be diluted and the structural market will be focused. Among them, A-Shares are the main battlefield of the long bull of science and technology innovation, and the structural opportunities of A-Shares are stronger than Hong Kong stocks and US stocks.
In 2022, the investment clock of A-share market will swing between "small recession" and "weak recovery". The composite index is still not a big year, and the structural market is still lively - the two main lines are intertwined, which will "find the power of self-confidence":
First, the damaged industries in 2021 will find the power of self-confidence from the changes of policies or investment logic, and it is expected that there will be a "mean return" market of basic outlook or valuation system, including social service industry, airport, agriculture related to pig cycle, and state-owned enterprises with core competitiveness in real estate, finance and other fields.
Second, Kechuang's "five major tracks", which will continue to be the main theme of the market in 2022, but facing short-term overvaluation and track congestion, we need to find self-confidence strength - fine investment based on "poor expectation" and "cost performance" between and within mainstream tracks, gold mining, Low-carbon Science and Technology (especially green power, new power system, etc.), digital economy, specialization and innovation Great opportunities in military industry and other fields.
(Daily Economic News)
