The pharmaceutical retail sector rose on the 27th. As of press time, Guangxi Liuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603368) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) rose by the limit, Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) rose by more than 9%, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) rose by more than 8%, Zjamp Group Co.Ltd(002758) , Qingdao Baheal Medical Inc(301015) rose by more than 7%, and Cachet Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002462) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) rose by more than 5%.
In the first half of 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, the sales of masks and killing products increased, and the sales of pharmacies were high. Under the high base effect, the performance growth of retail pharmacies slowed down in the first half of 2021. Debang Securities believes that in the second half of 2021, the high base effect will be gradually eliminated, and the performance is expected to improve month on month.
Industry logic 1: the industry concentration has accelerated and the leading enterprises have benefited. In 2020, Ka chain enterprises (with an annual operating revenue of more than 200 million yuan) accounted for 19.2% of the stores, contributing 54.9% of the revenue. From the perspective of single store income, Ka chain is 5.4 times that of single drugstores, and the operation gap between leading drugstores and single drugstores has been widened. In 2020, CR10 will increase from 20.2% in 2019 to 27%, and Cr20 will also increase significantly to 36.4% from 27.3% in 2019. The industry concentration will accelerate.
Industry logic 2: online or entities, with competition and dislocation, o2o is an effective integration method. In 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, the proportion of online pharmacies in the retail end will also increase to 5.6%; In 2020, the proportion of traditional Chinese and Western patent medicines in physical retail pharmacies will exceed 73%, and the total proportion of devices and non drugs in online pharmacies will exceed 50%. There are great differences in categories between the two. O2o, as a relatively smooth way of online and offline integration, accounts for nearly 3.5% of the share, and the improvement speed is very fast.
Industry logic 3: the terminal position of retail pharmacies is rising, and the outflow of prescriptions has brought hundreds of billions of increments. From the perspective of 2020, the sales proportion of retail pharmacies has increased significantly, from 23.4% in 2019 to 26.3% in 2020, with an overall increase of nearly 3 percentage points. From 2016 to 2020, the proportion of prescription drugs sold in hospitals decreased from 77% to 71.6%. As one of the terminals to undertake the outflow of prescriptions, the proportion of prescription drug sales in retail pharmacies increased from 10% to 13.6%. Under neutral circumstances, the agency expects the scale of prescription drugs sold through retail channels to increase to 315.1 billion yuan by 2030, of which the share of physical retail pharmacies is about 79.5%.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said it was optimistic about the performance of the pharmaceutical retail sector in 2022. Considering that new stores are a forward-looking indicator of pharmacy performance, store expansion in 2021 is expected to lay a foundation for stable performance growth in 2022. Trend 1: the growth rate of pharmaceutical retail industry continues to pick up. According to the data released by Zhongkang CMH, the average sales of retail pharmacies have been warming since October. According to the data released by Zhongkang CMH, the national store average sales index and month on month index (year-on-year 2019 single month sales) showed a gradual upward trend. The single month sales index in November 2021 was 100, with a marginal upward trend compared with the previous average value of 93 from January to October. Considering that the index mainly reflects the store sales of the pharmaceutical retail industry, the continuous recovery of the index may reflect the recovery trend of the pharmaceutical retail sector.
Trend 2: the base pressure was gradually eliminated, and some pharmacies showed an improvement trend in the third quarter. Some listed companies showed a marginal improvement trend in revenue in the third quarter of a single year, and are expected to show a marginal improvement trend from 2022. In 2020, the epidemic situation will increase the short-term performance of pharmacies, and the “epidemic materials” and “hospital crowding out effect” will increase the performance of pharmacies. The above two factors only increase the performance of the current year. After the base factor is gradually eliminated from 2022, the pharmacy sector is expected to return to normal growth in the past. According to the financial data of the first three quarters of 2021, the growth of some pharmacies has recovered, and the revenue of the third quarter of 2021 has shown marginal recovery growth ( Shuyu Civilian Pharmacy Corp.Ltd(301017) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) ). Referring to the further elimination of the base factor of some pharmacies in the fourth quarter of last year, we believe that the base pressure of some pharmacies from Q4 is expected to be further relieved, and we are optimistic about the marginal improvement expectation of the pharmacy sector.
Trend 3: the growth rate of stores has reached the peak in recent three years, which is expected to contribute to the incremental revenue in 2022. Store expansion: the expansion speed of pharmaceutical retail stores has accelerated in 2021, which is expected to bring incremental revenue in 2022. According to the past store opening performance of leading enterprises in the pharmaceutical retail sector, generally speaking, the revenue scale of newly opened stores in the first year is only 500000-600000. After obtaining the designated medical insurance in the second year, the store revenue is expected to double. According to the data of the first three quarters of 2021, the store expansion growth rate of the six pharmaceutical retail listed companies is the fastest in recent three years, and the newly opened stores in 2021 are expected to contribute to the revenue increment in 2022.
(Securities Times)
