Silicon material equipment: the downstream fluctuation continues to rise, and the equipment demand is expected to exceed the expectation. The development process of China’s polysilicon material industry in the past 20 years is resumed: ① from 2002 to 2010:
Subject to the supply price soaring to US $475 / kg, the subsequent expansion of production did not get the timely matching of demand, and the polysilicon industry was once listed as one of the six industries with overcapacity by the state. ② 20102020: polysilicon was removed from the list of overcapacity industries in 2013, and China once again started the upsurge of technological transformation and production expansion. However, the promulgation of the “531 New Deal” in 2018, superimposed on the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the industry has been in a downturn for about three consecutive years.
③ from 2020 to now: 2020 is the turning point year for the prosperity of polysilicon industry, showing the characteristics of “restraining first and then increasing”. The turning point appears in the release of “double carbon” policy in the second half of 2020.
The high demand growth expectation of the photovoltaic industry was strengthened, and the tight balance between supply and demand led to a sharp rise in the price of silicon material again. Looking back on the polysilicon material industry in the past 20 years, the mismatch between supply and demand has exacerbated the cyclical fluctuations of the industry
Competition pattern and space calculation of silicon material equipment: ① equipment composition: five categories of static equipment for polysilicon preparation are cold hydrogenation reactor, reduction furnace, tower, heat exchanger and spherical tank. Pressure vessels can be divided into reaction, heat exchange, separation and storage pressure vessels. Reduction furnace is the core production equipment of polysilicon by improved Siemens method, with the highest value and quantity. ② Competition pattern: the industry is relatively scattered, and suppliers include Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) , Suzhou Hailu Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002255) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , Zhenjiang Dongfang Electric Heating Technology Co.Ltd(300217) , Sichuan Kexin Mechanical And Electrical Equipment Co.Ltd(300092) , etc. Since 2021, the new orders of head suppliers have increased explosively. ③ Scale of production expansion: according to our statistics, the scale of polysilicon industry expansion projects announced by major enterprises since 2020 exceeds 2.7 million tons, which is about 5.7 times that of China’s expected output of 490000 tons in 2021. Most of these expansion projects were started in 2021 and after, and the scale of production expansion is spectacular. In addition to the traditional six leading polysilicon suppliers, Qinghai Lihao, JINGNUO new energy, Runyang new energy, Xinyi solar energy, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) and other new players have entered the market. ④ Equipment space calculation:
Under the assumptions of optimistic, neutral and pessimistic scenarios, the equipment market space of China’s polysilicon industry in 2022 will be 49.1 billion yuan, 32.7 billion yuan and 26.7 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 29.93%, 27.39% and 26.32% respectively over the same period of last year.
Silicon wafer equipment: “large silicon wafer” and “slicing” give birth to new demands in the industry. Preparation: the preparation of silicon wafer mainly includes four links: long crystal, cutting square and testing and sorting, among which long crystal and slicing are the core links. Monocrystalline silicon is prepared by polycrystalline silicon material through direct drawing method or zone melting method. The direct drawing method is further divided into multiple direct drawing method, continuous direct drawing method and magnetic field direct drawing method. At present, the direct drawing method is transitioning from RCZ to CCZ; Preparation of monocrystalline silicon by ingot casting method refers to the preparation of monocrystalline silicon by a process similar to casting polycrystalline silicon. At present, the proportion of monocrystalline silicon prepared by this process is still small.
New changes: the trend of “large size” and “flake” is determined, and the proportion of n-type silicon wafer will increase rapidly. ① “Large size” is currently the two camps of “182” and “210”. In 2021, 218.2 large-size silicon wafers were newly released in central. Large size will give birth to the demand for new silicon wafer equipment and the renewal demand of existing equipment. ② “Slicing”: it helps to reduce the cost of silicon wafer, but it will also affect the slice yield to a certain extent. According to our sensitivity analysis, when the slice yield reaches 98%, the silicon wafer thickness decreases to 160 μ m. The number of polysilicon sheets per kilogram reached 60.11, compared with 96% yield and 165% μ The production rate of M scene increased by 4.36%. ③ “N-type”. In 2020, the proportion of n-type silicon wafer in China will be about 3.3%. With the accelerated industrialization of n-type battery wafer, the proportion of n-type monocrystalline silicon wafer will increase rapidly in the next 10 years. The advantages of n-type substrate battery include: the structure of n-type substrate battery can obtain high minority carrier lifetime in both base region and emission region; Higher open circuit voltage; Light PID effect, light attenuation, etc.
Calculation of equipment space: ① competition pattern of single crystal furnace: the concentration of equipment suppliers is high, and the dependence on large customers needs to be improved. The main suppliers include Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Liancheng CNC, Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) , etc; New players include Wuxi Songci and so on. ② Competition pattern of cutting equipment: the concentration of head suppliers is not high, and the overall situation presents an equal share of the world. The main suppliers include Liancheng CNC, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , etc. The improvement of slicer performance mainly comes from the reduction of production cost, the improvement of efficiency and the guarantee of silicon wafer quality. ③ Calculation of equipment space: according to our statistics, according to the published data, the expansion scale has exceeded 180gw, while it is expected to be about 150gw in 2021. (a) Neutral scenario assumption: it is estimated that the market scale of silicon wafer equipment from 2021 to 2022 will be 23.2 billion yuan and 24.8 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the market scale of single crystal furnace is 18.5 billion yuan and 19.7 billion yuan; The market scale of slicer is 2.7 billion yuan and 2.9 billion yuan. In terms of equipment procurement caliber, 2022 is still an expansion year compared with 2021. (b) Optimistic scenario assumptions:
Considering the factors of half wafer demand and accelerated clearing of existing silicon wafer capacity, it is estimated that the market scale of silicon wafer equipment from 2021 to 2022 will be 23.2 billion yuan and 34 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the market scale of single crystal furnace is 18.5 billion yuan and 25.6 billion yuan; The market scale of slicer is 2.7 billion yuan and 5.7 billion yuan.
photovoltaic upstream equipment investment proposal
we emphasize that the production expansion characteristics of the upstream silicon wafer link of photovoltaic are different from those of the traditional cycle industry. The reasons are as follows: ① strategic dimension: the high growth of the medium and long-term perspective of photovoltaic is the essential difference from the traditional cycle industry (mainly upstream raw material industry). In the face of huge potential demand, Industry players’ decision to expand production will give more consideration to the acquisition of medium and long-term market share and the embodiment of cost advantage under scale effect. The sustainability of production expansion is expected to exceed expectations. ② Technology dimension: all kinds of technology upgrades, including energy consumption, process and size, all aim at the pursuit of lower unit cost. At present, the industry is in the initial stage of replacing p-type batteries with n-type batteries, and the industrial technological innovation is facing unprecedented opportunities. In the process of high-speed technological iteration, accelerated depreciation of equipment is a common phenomenon
from the perspective of the announced capacity expansion plan of silicon materials and silicon wafers, we believe that silicon materials and silicon wafer equipment in 2022 have the possibility of further exceeding expectations. From the medium and long-term strategic and technical dimensions, under the background of carbon neutrality, photovoltaic has accelerated from policy driven to demand driven, and the industry has achieved high growth The high-tech iteration attribute is expected to lead to the continuous exceeding expectation of equipment investment
