After more than half a year of silence, the drugstore chain sector has been fully launched since the bottom of the year.
The financial Associated Press reporter learned through multiple interviews that in addition to the driving effect of the Chinese patent medicine sector, the Growth Logic of the pharmacy industry has changed.
In an interview with the financial Associated Press, some industry insiders said that the high base of last year superimposed the disturbance of epidemic situations in different regions, which affected the passenger flow of stores and led to the slowdown of Q3 performance growth. Q4 is the relative peak season of the industry, and the average customer unit price has increased, showing signs of stabilization and recovery compared with Q3. Driven by "low base + new store climbing" in 2022, the performance of drugstore chain companies is expected to improve.
is the general rise in drugstore stocks related to traditional Chinese medicine?
The Chinese medicine sector has recently ignited, which also makes some investors concerned about the traditional Chinese medicine layout of drugstore chain companies. On December 24, an investor asked Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) whether there was a layout of traditional Chinese medicine? How big is it? The company replied that traditional Chinese medicine has always been an important product of the company, and the company will actively promote and improve the sales proportion of traditional Chinese medicine. It is understood that the sales volume of traditional Chinese medicine in the first three quarters of the company increased by more than 30%, accounting for 10%, and the gross profit margin increased significantly year-on-year, higher than the average gross profit margin.
Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) relevant people also said earlier that developing some traditional Chinese medicine varieties with high gross profit is an important strategy of the company. In terms of increasing the proportion, the company will increase the number of TCM sitting doctors in stores as soon as possible, so as to continuously improve the relationship between customers and TCM doctors and drive the proportion of the company's traditional Chinese medicine sales.
The reporter combed the latest financial reports of drugstore companies. According to the proportion of traditional Chinese medicine revenue, Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) (14.73%), Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) (9.05%), Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) (6.21%), Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) (10.87%), Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) (4.11%).
According to the statistical analysis report 2020 on the operation of the pharmaceutical circulation industry issued by the Ministry of Commerce, according to the sales categories, the sales of Western medicine in retail pharmacies dominate, accounting for 71.5% of the total retail sales of seven categories of pharmaceutical commodities, followed by Chinese patent medicine accounting for 14.1%, traditional Chinese medicine accounting for 2.3%, and the above three categories accounting for 87.9%.
On December 27, Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) (603233. SH) rose by the limit, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) (603939. SH), Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) (603883. SH) touched the limit, and Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) (002727sz), Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) (605266. SH) closed up by 6.4% and 6.3% respectively. The plate start-up window occurred after the Q4 share price of some companies hit a new low in the year, and rose collectively by hitting the daily limit for the first time.
For the sudden start of the low level of the pharmacy sector, a private placement manager who has been tracking the large consumption sector for a long time told the financial associated press that it would be far fetched to link the start of the pharmacy sector with the traditional Chinese medicine sector. The rising logic of the traditional Chinese medicine sector is that the price reduction range of centralized procurement is less than that of other drugs and traditional Chinese medicine. The price increase range of products sold in pharmacies has set relevant upper limits, and can not be increased at will. If the two have something in common, it is that they have experienced a long downturn before. The bottom rebound of the traditional Chinese medicine sector began to materialize in 2021. On the whole, this round of rise in the traditional Chinese medicine sector is based on the valuation repair expectation under the performance marginal improvement logic.
He believes that the current situation of the pharmacy sector in 2021 is somewhat similar to that of the traditional Chinese medicine sector in 2020. Under the influence of multiple factors, the performance growth of pharmacy chain companies slowed down in the first three quarters. Next year, with the elimination of the influence of the high base and the stabilization of the epidemic situation, the growth rate is expected to return to the normal track.
The reporter noted that Q4 of this year, including Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , has successively hit a new low in the year. Taking Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) as an example, the company's share price hit a new low of 33.12 yuan / share on December 3. Even after the daily closing limit on December 27, the decline since the beginning of the year is about 38%. The dynamic P / E ratio is about 30 times, approaching the valuation low in recent years.
(Note: Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) valuation change curve in recent years)
Q4 shows signs of stabilizing and warming compared with Q3 sales
According to the latest statistics of Zhongkang CMH, compared with last month, the average sales of retail pharmacies in November continued to increase, mainly driven by the growth of customer unit price. In November, the passenger unit price index of various types of drugs increased, and the growth of Chinese patent medicine and chemical drugs was more obvious. Compared with the average level in 2019, the passenger flow of the industry has more room to improve.
(data source: Zhongkang CMH)
Insiders of a pharmacy company said that the overall customer unit price increased by about 1.2%. The increase of profit depends on when the epidemic situation is eliminated, and the profit will not be bad after the epidemic situation is eliminated. In November, the overall growth of old stores decreased by 4% year-on-year, but it is still improving compared with the decline of 6% in the third quarter.
Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) a person from the Securities Department told the financial associated press that the epidemic factors did not have a great impact on the company. At present, the overall operation of the company is normal, and the data for the fourth quarter has not been counted. The specific situation should be disclosed in the financial report; Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) a relevant person from the Securities Department told the financial associated press that from the current operation, Q4 sales will be improved compared with Q3. The biggest problem this year is the recurrence of the epidemic, which will have an impact on the passenger flow. In the future, it mainly depends on the changes of the epidemic. Approaching the end of the year is generally the industry's relative peak sales season.
According to China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities analysis, the factors that drag down the performance growth in 2021 are expected to be alleviated in 2022. The high base effect caused by the large sales of epidemic prevention materials in 2020 will disappear in 2022, and there will be a low base effect at the performance level in 2022. Next year, the growth of the same store in the industry is expected to recover to 6% - 8%; Covid-19 vaccine has been widely vaccinated in China, and it is expected that the marginal impact of repeated epidemic in some areas will be weakened in 2022; The medical insurance system is switched to a phased event, and there is no relevant impact in 2022.
The agency believes that the chain drugstore industry is still a good track in the long run. The 14th five year plan for the pharmaceutical circulation industry clearly requires that five large chain drugstore enterprises with annual sales of 50 billion should be cultivated during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The logic of industry integration will continue, and the concentration is expected to continue to improve. The leading enterprises of large chain drugstores are expected to enjoy policy dividends, and the strong will always be strong. The financial Associated Press reporter noted that in the third quarter of this year, Gao yilinshan No. 1, a 100 billion scale private placement boss of Gao Yi assets, made a large-scale intervention in Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) and Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) in advance.
(Financial Associated Press)
