Pay attention to the cross-year market, still suggest to pay attention to the trading opportunities of the securities sector, leave room for loose monetary policy, the high-level continues to set the tone and reduce the expectations, and China’s zeroing policy is not afraid of the impact of variant viruses. Risk appetite may decline, leading to increased market volatility in spring, but the sector still maintains a stronger rating than the market, and seizes trading opportunities for high-quality securities companies with high-quality new third board business, high-quality wealth management and institutional business.
Pay attention to the layout of securities companies and fear the influence of variant viruses
This week, the stabilization of the securities sector led the valuation fluctuation to near 1.73 times Pb, and Q4 performance is expected to end smoothly. Attention should be paid to the impact of variant viruses and market wind bias. In the short term, mainstream institutions have not released more studies on the impact of variant viruses. It is expected that due to China’s epidemic clearing policy, the impact is less than that of the international market. This week, the market shows increased cross-year market fluctuations, and the market may still be accumulating in spring.
In the medium and long term, as the new round of policy cycle window approaches, it is expected that more capital market policies will be issued to promote the long-term development of the capital market and look forward to the follow-up upward space. We still suggest focusing on securities companies with outstanding wealth management transformation, rich business resources of the Beijing stock exchange and high-quality institutional business performance.
Opportunities in venture capital sector need attention
Affected by the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange, it attaches importance to the allocation opportunities of high-quality venture capital stocks and is vigilant against the realization of favorable conditions.
Long term focus on undervaluing the allocation opportunities of insurance stocks
At present, the yield to maturity of 10-year medium-term bonds has dropped to around 2.82%. Compared with China’s long-term stable economic fundamentals, the risk-free interest rate expectation reflected by the current stock price is pessimistic, the regulators continue to promote market reform, the allocation value of insurance stocks with high dividend and undervalued value is prominent, and they are optimistic about valuation repair in the medium and long term, so they still need to pay attention to the allocation value. At the same time, we also need to pay close attention to the epidemic development in overseas areas, the Fed’s interest rate action and the trend of China US relations. In addition, from the transaction level, the winning rate of insurance stocks allocated in Q4 is generally high, which is expected to improve the yield of the sector due to the increase of market wind bias.
Risk tip: Sino US friction intensifies the risk; Risk of continued narrowing of interest rate spread between China and the United States; Risk of SEC suspending IPO registration of Chinese companies; Geopolitical risk; Macroeconomic downside risk; Evergrande’s handling of events is not as good as expected; Guard against the risk of short-term thematic speculation; The systematic decline risk of stock market; Risk of stricter supervision; Risk of continued spread of pneumonia.
（ China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) ）
